The New Generations of Europeans: Demography and Families in the Enlarged European Union (Earthscan Population and Sustainable Development Series)

404 Pages·2006·1.72 MB·English

by  Wolfgang Lutz, Rudolf Richter, Chris Wilson

The New Generations of Europeans
Demography and Families in the Enlarged
European Union
TheInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis
is an interdisciplinary, nongovernmental research institution founded in 1972 by leading
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IIASA has been producing valuable scientific research on economic, technological and
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TheEuropeanObservatoryontheSocialSituation,Demography
andFamily1998to2004
TheEuropeanObservatoryontheSocialSituation,DemographyandFamilywasamulti-
disciplinarynetworkofindependentexpertsestablishedandfundedbytheEuropeanCom-
mission. Between 1998 and 2004 the Austrian Institute for Family Studies (O¨IF) co-
ordinatedtheObservatory.
TheEuropeanObservatoryhadanationalexpertineachofthethen15memberstatesof
theEuropeanUnion. Theseexpertsmonitoredandreportedonpolitical,demographicand
socioeconomicchangesandhowtheseinfluencedthesocialsituationandthefamily.
Thisbook,TheNewGenerationsofEuropeans:DemographyandFamiliesintheEnlarged
EuropeanUnion,summarizestheinsightsfromtheresearchoftheObservatory.
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Thispublicationisbasedonarticlesandcontributionspresentedduringtheclosingconfer-
enceof the European Observatoryon Demography, the SocialSituation andFamily that
took placefrom 27 to 28 September 2004. The Observatory wasentirely funded by the
EuropeanCommission. However,thereportsandcontributionsinthepresentpublication
donotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionorpositionoftheEuropeanCommission,theAustrian
InstituteforFamilyStudiesortheInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis.
Population and Sustainable Development Series
The New Generations of Europeans
Demography and Families in the Enlarged
European Union
Edited by
WolfgangLutz,Rudolf Richter andChrisWilson
LondonandSterling,VA
FirstpublishedbyEarthscanintheUKandUSAin2006
Copyright c InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,2006
(cid:0)
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The new generationsof Europeans: demography and families in the enlarged European
Union/WolfgangLutz,RudolfRichterandChrisWilson(editors).
p.cm.
ISBN-13:978-1-84407-351-1(pbk.)
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ISBN-13:978-1-84407-352-8(hardback)
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1. Europe–Population.2.Family–Europe. 3.Fertility,Human–Europe.I.Lutz,
Wolfgang.II.Richter,Rudolf,1952-III.Wilson,Christopher,1956-
HB3581.A3N4942006
304.6094–dc22
2006001115
Contents
ListofAcronyms xi
PARTI:IntroductionandOverview 1
1 Introduction
WolfgangLutzandChrisWilson 3
1.1 TheNewGenerationsofEuropeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.2 AgeStructureandFertilityChange . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.3 Aging,FertilityandMigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.4 AgingandtheEconomy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.5 MeetingtheChallengesoftheFuture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2 TheSocialSituationintheEuropeanUnion,2004
ConstantinosFotakisandFritzvonNordheim 19
2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.2 TheDemographicPortrait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.3 LivingConditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.4 SocialProtectionReforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
PARTII:Fertility TrendsinanEnlargedEuropeanUnion 27
3 LowFertilityandtheScopeforSocialPolicy:
UnderstandingtheContext
JuanAntonioFerna´ndezCordo´n 29
3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
v
vi Contents
3.2 FactsandProspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.3 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
4 ChildbearingBehaviorintheNewEUMember States:
BasicTrends andSelected Attitudes
ZsoltSpe´der 59
4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
4.2 AnOverview: The State ofFertility and Partnership Formation in
theNewEUMemberStates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
4.3 Fertility Preferences of Young Adults: Total Number of Antici-
patedChildren. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
4.4 Attitudes of Young Adults Toward Family Formation and Child-
bearinginSelected CountriesintheIPPASSurvey . . . . . . . . 71
4.5 Summary: SomeRemarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
5 AlternativePathsforFutureEuropean Fertility:
WilltheBirthRateRecoverorContinuetoDecline?
WolfgangLutz 83
5.1 TheLackofaTheorywithPredictivePowerinPost-Demographic
TransitionPopulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
5.2 ArgumentsinSupportofAssumingHigherFertility . . . . . . . . 85
5.3 ArgumentsinSupportofAssumingLowerFertility . . . . . . . . 92
5.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
PARTIII:FamilyFormsandtheYoungGenerationinan
EnlargedUnion 101
6 Europe’sComingGenerations: TheInfluence ofthePast
GiovanniB.Sgritta 103
6.1 FromPasttoPresent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
6.2 TheSecond‘GreatTransformation’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
6.3 From‘GoldenAge’to‘Landslide’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
6.4 Effects: WelfareAging,ChildPovertyandthe
PostponementSyndrome . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
6.5 TheComingGenerations: TowardaPolitical
EconomyoftheTransitiontoAdulthoodintheEU . . . . . . . . 120
6.6 ‘Gates’ofTransition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
6.7 ClosingRemarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Contents vii
7 Youth Transitions and Family Support in a Transforming Social
Context—ReflectionsfromtheNewMember States
SiykaKovacheva 145
7.1 TheChangingContextofEuropeanYouth
Transitions—FromaBipolartoaMosaicPattern . . . . . . . . . 147
7.2 TransformingPatternsofYouthTransitions—FromPasttoPresent 151
7.3 ‘Flexibilization’ofYouthTransitionfromEducationto
Employment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
7.4 PluralizationofthePatternsofFamily/Housing
Transitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
7.5 TransformingPatternsofFamilySupport . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
7.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
8 FamilyFormsandtheYoungGenerationintheNewEurope:
FutureTrends
ClaireWallace 177
8.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
8.2 Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
8.3 Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
PARTIV:MigrationDevelopmentsinanEnlargedEuropean
Union 189
9 Migration,MigrantsandTheirFamiliesintheEU15Member States
JohannesPflegerl 191
9.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
9.2 TheVariousMeaningsofMigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
9.3 MigrationinEurope: ABriefHistoricalOverview . . . . . . . . . 193
9.4 DemographicDevelopmentofMigration,1998to2004 . . . . . . 195
9.5 MainTrendsinLaborMigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
9.6 FamilyandMigrationintheEU15MemberStates . . . . . . . . . 205
9.7 AsylumSeekersintheEuropeanUnion,1997to2004 . . . . . . . 207
9.8 IrregularMigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
9.9 PublicOpiniontowardMigrantsintheEU15MemberStates . . . 215
9.10 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
10 InternationalMigrationPatternsintheNewEUMemberStates
DusˇanDrbohlav 223
10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
10.2 MigratoryHistory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
viii Contents
10.3 MigratoryTypesandOverallMigrationScales . . . . . . . . . . . 227
10.4 FactorsContributingtoMigrationMovements . . . . . . . . . . . 233
10.5 ImpactofMigrationMovementsonSocieties . . . . . . . . . . . 235
10.6 MigrationPoliciesandPractices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
10.7 ConclusionsandSomeRecommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
11 TheFutureEuropean UnionFacingMigration
CatherineWihtoldeWenden 247
11.1 Europe:AContinentofImmigrationagainstItsWill . . . . . . . 249
11.2 TheEuropeanResponseandNationalImmigrationPolicies:
EuropeanizationinReverse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
11.3 Outlook:Codevelopment,Quotas,RighttoMobility . . . . . . . 256
PARTV:Family andHealthinanEnlargedEuropeanUnion 261
12 FamilyandHealth: AModelandEuropeanFacts
Hans-JoachimSchulze 263
12.1 FamilyandHealth: AModel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264
12.2 FamilyandHealthatDifferentStagesoftheLifeCourse . . . . . 269
12.3 FeaturesoftheHealth-CareSystemsintheEU . . . . . . . . . . 279
12.4 Relationship between Family, the Organized Health-Care System
andEUPolicy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
13 ThePolishHealthSysteminEurope: Situation,Reforms
andChallenges
ChristophSowada 287
13.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
13.2 HealthSystemsintheCEEAccessionStates . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
13.3 ThePolishHealthSystem: StructureandFinancing . . . . . . . . 289
13.4 ProblemsandChallenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
13.5 EnlargementChallengesfortheEU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
13.6 SummaryandConclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300
Annex1: Health-CareStatistics forPoland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302
Annex2: MajorHealth-Care-RelatedLegalInstruments . . . . . . . . . 305
14 IssuesfortheFutureofHealthCareinanEnlargedEU
RobertAnderson 309
14.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
14.2 DataSources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
14.3 HealthStatus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Contents ix
14.4 AccesstoHealthServices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314
14.5 QualityinHealthServices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316
14.6 TheFutureofCareProvision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318
14.7 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323
PARTVI:ChallengesAheadfortheEuropeanUnion 327
15 Civic Society and the Family: On the Formation of Social Capital in
Europe
JanH.Marbach 329
15.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
15.2 SocialCapitalasaCollective ResourceinEurope . . . . . . . . . 332
15.3 SocialCapitalasanIndividualResourceinGermany . . . . . . . 340
15.4 SummaryandConclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348
16 Europe’s FutureGenerations: ClosingThoughts
LandisMacKellar 353
16.1 SubreplacementFertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354
16.2 DelayedFamilyFormationand‘Alternative’LivingArrangements 357
16.3 PopulationAging1: Pensions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359
16.4 PopulationAging2: HealthCare,Long-TermCareandHome
Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
16.5 Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
16.6 Europe’sFutureGenerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 370
16.7 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372
Index 375
AbouttheAuthors 385