The New Arab Revolt: What Happened, What It Means, and What Comes Next

497 Pages·2011·4.36 MB·English

by  Council on Foreign Relations Foreign Affairs

T
The New Arab Revolt: What Happened, What It Means, and What Comes Next h
sets the intellectual stage for understanding the revolutions in the Middle East. e

N
This collection brings together more than sixty articles, interviews,
e The
congressional testimony, and op-eds from experts and thought leaders,
w
including Bernard Lewis, Fouad Ajami, Richard Haass, Lisa Anderson, Martin

Indyk, Isobel Coleman, Aluf Benn, Dirk Vandewalle, and Nassim Nicholas A
Taleb. The volume includes seminal pieces from Foreign Aff airs, ForeignAff airs. r
a
com, and CFR.org. In addition, major public statements by Barack Obama, New
b
Hillary Rodham Clinton, Hosni Mubarak, Muammar al-Qaddafi , and others
R
are joined by Egyptian opposition writings and relevant primary source
e
documents. Even if you have been paying close attention to the extraordinary
v
events unfolding in the Middle East, this book pulls together what is needed o
Arab
l
to understand the origins and signifi cance of the new Arab revolt, including a
t
special introduction by Foreign Aff airs editor Gideon Rose.
Cover photo: Asmaa Waguih/Courtesy of Reuters
Revolt
What Happened,
What It Means,
and What Comes Next
Price: U.S. $17.99
www.cfr.org www.ForeignAff airs.org
Option A: Horizontal lockup on binding
The New Arab Revolt
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership orga-
nization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, govern-
ment officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious
leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and
the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921,
CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs
to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders;
convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cit-
ies where senior government officials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent
thinkers come together with CFR members to discuss and debate major international issues;
supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to
produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy issues
and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent
journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces
that produce reports with both findings and policy prescriptions on the most important
foreign policy topics; and providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events
and American foreign policy on its website, www.cfr.org.
The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has
no affiliation with the U.S. government. All views expressed in its publications and on its
website are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.
For further information about CFR or this publication, please write to the Council on
Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065, or call Communications at
212.434.9888. Visit CFR’s website, www.cfr.org.
Copyright © 2011 by the Council on Foreign Relations®, Inc., except for “Reflections on the
Revolution in Egypt” © 2011 by Richard N. Haass; “Are the Mideast Revolutions Bad for
Women’s Rights?” © 2011 by Isobel Coleman; “In Libya, How Obama Can End a Mission
That Started Badly” © 2011 by Gideon Rose; “Will Libya Become Obama’s Iraq?” © 2011
by Meghan L. O’Sullivan; “Our Bargain With the New Gadhafi” © 2011 by Elliott Abrams;
and “Qaddafi Must Go” © 2011 by Max Boot.
All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
This publication may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form beyond the repro-
duction permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law Act (17 U.S.C. Sec-
tions 107 and 108) and excerpts by reviewers for the public press, without express written
permission from the Council on Foreign Relations. For information, write to the Publica-
tions Office, Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065.
Contents
Regional Map xi
Introduction—Gideon Rose xii
THE PAST AS PROLOGUE
The Sorrows of Egypt—Fouad Ajami 2
Foreign Affairs (September/October 1995)
Back to the Bazaar—Martin Indyk 22
Foreign Affairs (January/February 2002)
Freedom and Justice in the Modern Middle East
—Bernard Lewis 38
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2005)
Adrift on the Nile: The Limits of the Opposition
in Egypt—Steven A. Cook 57
Foreign Affairs (March/April 2009)
Is El Baradei Egypt’s Hero? Mohamed El Baradei
and the Chance for Reform—Steven A. Cook 68
ForeignAffairs.com (March 26, 2010)
THE ICE BREAKS UP
Morning in Tunisia: The Frustrations of the Arab World
Boil Over—Michele Penner Angrist 75
ForeignAffairs.com (January 16, 2011)
[iii]
Contents
Letter From Cairo: The People’s Military in Egypt?
—Eric Trager 81
ForeignAffairs.com (January 30, 2011)
The U.S.-Egyptian Breakup: Washington’s Limited
Options in Cairo—Steven A. Cook 86
ForeignAffairs.com (February 2, 2011)
The Muslim Brotherhood After Mubarak:
What the Brotherhood Is and How It Will Shape
the Future—Carrie Rosefsky Wickham 91
ForeignAffairs.com (February 3, 2011)
Egypt’s Democratic Mirage: How Cairo’s Authoritarian
Regime Is Adapting to Preserve Itself—Joshua Stacher 98
ForeignAffairs.com (February 7, 2011)
Overcoming Fear and Anxiety in Tel Aviv:
How Israel Can Turn Egypt’s Unrest Into
an Opportunity—Aluf Benn 104
ForeignAffairs.com (February 8, 2011)
Mubarakism Without Mubarak: Why Egypt’s Military
Will Not Embrace Democracy—Ellis Goldberg 110
ForeignAffairs.com (February 11, 2011)
Reflections on the Revolution in Egypt
—Richard N. Haass 115
Project Syndicate (February 13, 2011)
Postcolonial Time Disorder: Egypt and the Middle East,
Stuck in the Past—James D. Le Sueur 119
ForeignAffairs.com (February 14, 2011)
[iv]
Contents
Egypt’s Constitutional Ghosts: Deciding the Terms
of Cairo’s Democratic Transition—Nathan J. Brown 125
ForeignAffairs.com (February 15, 2011)
A Tunisian Solution for Egypt’s Military:
Why Egypt’s Military Will Not Be Able to Govern
—Clement M. Henry and Robert Springborg 132
ForeignAffairs.com (February 21, 2011)
The Fall of the Pharaoh: How Hosni Mubarak’s Reign
Came to an End—Dina Shehata 137
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
The Black Swan of Cairo: How Suppressing Volatility
Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous
—Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Blyth 149
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
THE CRACKS SPREAD
Why Jordan is Not a Regional Domino
—Robert Danin 161
CFR.org (February 1, 2011)
Green Movement 2.0? How U.S. Support Could Lead
the Opposition to Victory—Geneive Abdo 163
ForeignAffairs.com (February 18, 2011)
Iran’s Protests and Economic Realities
—Interview with Suzanne Maloney 168
CFR.org (February 22, 2011)
The Arab Turmoil and Palestinians
—Interview with Rashid I. Khalidi 175
CFR.org (February 25, 2011)
[v]
Contents
Letter From Sana’a: Saleh on the Edge
—Abdullah al-Qubati 182
ForeignAffairs.com (February 25, 2011)
Bahrain’s Shia Question: What the United States Gets
Wrong About Sectarianism—Kristin Smith Diwan 187
ForeignAffairs.com (March 2, 2011)
Rage Comes to Baghdad: Will Iraq’s Recent Protests
Lead to Revolt?—Raad Alkadiri 193
ForeignAffairs.com (March 3, 2011)
The Sturdy House That Assad Built: Why Damascus
Is Not Cairo—Michael Bröning 200
ForeignAffairs.com (March 7, 2011)
Rageless in Riyadh: Why the Al Saud Dynasty
Will Remain—F. Gregory Gause III 205
ForeignAffairs.com (March 16, 2011)
Syria’s Assad No Longer in Vogue: What Everyone
Got Wrong About Bashar al-Assad—Tony Badran 210
ForeignAffairs.com (March 25, 2011)
Meanwhile in the Maghreb: Have Algeria and Morocco
Avoided North Africa’s Unrest?—Azzedine Layachi 215
ForeignAffairs.com (March 31, 2011)
Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s
Military Bases—Alexander Cooley and Daniel H. Nexon 221
ForeignAffairs.com (April 5, 2011)
Let Them Eat Bread: How Food Subsidies Prevent
(and Provoke) Revolutions in the Middle East
—Annia Ciezadlo 229
ForeignAffairs.com (March 23, 2011)
[vi]
Contents
Demographics of Arab Protests
—Interview with Ragui Assaad 236
CFR.org (February 14, 2011)
Are the Mideast Revolutions Bad for Women’s Rights?
—Isobel Coleman 242
Washington Post (February 20, 2011)
INTERVENTION IN LIBYA
Our Bargain With the New Gadhafi—Elliott Abrams 248
Wall Street Journal (February 25, 2011)
Libya’s Terra Incognita: Who and What Will
Follow Qaddafi?—Frederic Wehrey 252
ForeignAffairs.com (February 28, 2011)
What Intervention Looks Like: How the West Can
Aid the Libyan Rebels—Robert E. Hunter 258
ForeignAffairs.com (March 16, 2011)
The Folly of Protection: Is Intervention Against Qaddafi’s
Regime Legal and Legitimate?—Michael W. Doyle 263
ForeignAffairs.com (March 20, 2011)
To the Shores of Tripoli: Why Operation Odyssey Dawn
Should Not Stop At Benghazi—Dirk Vandewalle 269
ForeignAffairs.com (March 21, 2011)
A New Lease on Life for Humanitarianism:
How Operation Odyssey Dawn Will Revive RtoP
—Stewart Patrick 274
ForeignAffairs.com (March 24, 2011)
[vii]
Contents
In Libya, How Obama Can End a Mission
That Started Badly—Gideon Rose 279
Washington Post (March 25, 2011)
The Mythology of Intervention: Debating the Lessons
of History in Libya—Micah Zenko 284
ForeignAffairs.com (March 28, 2011)
Flight of the Valkyries? What Gender Does
and Doesn’t Tell Us About Operation Odyssey Dawn
—Charli Carpenter 290
ForeignAffairs.com (March 28, 2011)
Qaddafi Must Go—Max Boot 296
Weekly Standard (March 28, 2011)
Winning Ugly in Libya: What the United States Should
Learn from Its War in Kosovo—Michael O’Hanlon 300
ForeignAffairs.com (March 30, 2011)
Will Libya Become Obama’s Iraq?
—Meghan L. O’Sullivan 306
Washington Post (April 1, 2011)
Prepared Statement Before the Committee on
Foreign Relations, United States Senate
—Richard N. Haass 313
First Session, 112th Congress Hearing on Perspectives
on the Crisis in Libya (April 6, 2011)
WHAT IT MEANS AND WHAT COMES NEXT
Demystifying the Arab Spring: Parsing the Differences
Between Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya—Lisa Anderson 320
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
[viii]
Contents
Understanding the Revolutions of 2011:
Weakness and Resilience in Middle Eastern Autocracies
—Jack A. Goldstone 329
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
The Heirs of Nasser: Who Will Benefit From the Second
Arab Revolution?—Michael Scott Doran 344
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
The Rise of the Islamists: How Islamists Will Change
Politics, and Vice Versa—Shadi Hamid 359
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
Terrorism After the Revolutions: How Secular Uprisings
Could Help (or Hurt) Jihadists—Daniel Byman 370
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
DOCUMENTS
Remarks by President Barack Obama
on a New Beginning 382
Cairo University, Egypt (June 4, 2009)
Hillary Rodham Clinton’s Remarks to the Forum
for the Future 400
Doha, Qatar (January 13, 2011)
The Last Official Address by Tunisian President Zine
el-Abidine Ben Ali 404
January 13, 2011
The Last Official Address by Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak 408
February 10, 2011
[ix]