The Necessity for Nuclear Power

260 Pages·1980·9.55 MB·English

by  Geoffrey Greenhalgh (auth.)

THE NECESSITY FOR
NUCLEAR POWER
THE NECESSITY FOR
NUCLEAR POWER
Geoffrey Greenhalgh
Graham & Trotman Limited
First published in 1980 by
Graham and Trotman Limited
Bond Street House
14 Clifford Street
London WIX lRD
© Graham and Trotman Limited, 1980
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1980
ISBN-13: 978-0-8601()"249-6 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-011-7350-6
DOl: 10.1007/978-94-011-7350-6
This publication is protected by international copyright
law. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may
be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,
photo-copying, recording or otherwise, without the prior
permission of the publishers.
Typeset in Great Britain by
Supreme Litho Typesetting, liford, Essex.
Contents
List of Figures Vll
List of Tables IX
Foreword Xlll
Chapter 1 The Need for More Energy 1
Chapter 2 Energy Demand 25
Chapter 3 The Availability of Oil 41
Chapter 4 Coal 52
Chapter 5 Nuclear Power 64
Chapter 6 How Much Nuclear Plant in Operation by
the year 2000? 98
Chapter 7 Nuclear Power Utilisation 119
Chapter 8 Nuclear Process Heat 126
Chapter 9 The Comparative Hazards of Energy
Production and Use 143
Chapter 10 The Hazards of Fuel Production 148
Chapter 11 The Hazards of Power Generation 157
Chapter 12 Carbon Dioxide and the Greenhouse Effect 171
Chapter 13 Hazard of Major Accidents 174
Chapter 14 Three Mile Island 189
Chapter 15 Waste Disposal 195
Chapter 16 Nuclear Safeguards and Non-proliferation 210
Chapter 17 Opposition to Nuclear Power 223
Chapter 18 Conclusion 237
Glossary 241
List of Figures
1. Recent changes in growth/energy ratios for a number of countries 6
2. US gross energy consumption 9
3. US commercial energy use 10
4. US residential energy use 10
5. Distribution of per t:apita energy t:onsumption in 1971 11
6. Urban population estimates and projections 14
7. World population growth 16
8. Changes between more and less developed population shares 18
9. Arable land per capita; survey, 1965 and estimate, 1985 19
10. Energy subsidies for various food crops 20
11. Growth and demographic transitions of gross world product
versus world population and per capita product 23
12. Global energy scenarios 26
13. Future annual world energy requirements 27
14. World primary energy demand projections 29
15. Primary energy demand according to several projections 30
16. The Conservation Commission's alternative demand projection 31
17. Regional economic growth rates 32
18. Petroleum prices 44
19. Oil supply projections 47
20. Oil demand and availability 48
21. Natural gas supply and demand 50
22. The market share for primary energy consumption in the US 53
23. World production of coal 55
24. Fuel used for energy generation in the OECD 56
25. Development of the export/production ratio (%) of main
coal producing countries 61
26. Development of coal production and coal export 63
27. Rate of ordering nuclear power stations 76
28. World electrical generating capacity 100
29. Comparison of worldwide total electric with hydroelectric
generating capacity 101
30. Time taken to bring new power plants into operation 106
31. Annual ordering rate for nuclear reactors 111
32. Penetration of the electric power market by nuclear power 114
33. US total energy usage, 1972 120
34. Direct use of gas and oil in the US, 1972 121
35. Comparison of the electric and gasoline powered car 122
36. US total energy economy, year 2000 124
37. US installed generating capacity 125
38. Temperature ranges for process heat applications 126
39. C:omparison of tot:'!1 c.ost of heat rlelivererl for rlifferent
maximum heat IO:'!ds 128
viii The necessity fOT nuclear power
40 Schematic diagram of transmission system 130
41. Cost saving for transmission of heat from the Barsebeck power
station compared with the extension of hot water stations 131
42. Reactor providing heat where required 132
43. Applications for nuclear process heat 134
44. Schemes of coal gasification processes 135
45. Process flow diagram for nuclear steelmaking system 137
46. Total pipeline transportation cost versus energy flow rate 142
47. Materials flow for coal mining and preparation in Canada 144
48. Average radiation doses from various sources 161
49. Extrapolation of known radiation effects down to small doses 164
50. Comparison of pollutant standards, background levels,
man~made exposures and health effects 166
51. Annual change in C02 concentration in the atmosphere 171
52. Frequency of man-caused events with fatalities greater than N 182
53. Frequency of natural events with fatalities greater than N
compared to the 100 US nuclear reactor case 183
54. Total deaths per megawatt-year by energy system 186
55. Total man-days lost per megawatt-year net output over
lifetime of system 187
56. Heat output from a harvest block 199
57. Perspective drawing of plant for intermediate storage and
encapsulation 200
58. Handling of waste canisters in final repository 201
59. Radioactive elements in high-level waste 20.1)
60. Relative ingestion radiotoxicity of components of highly active
waste and naturally occurring radioactive pitchblende 206
List of Tables
1. GNP and the physical quality of life 3
2. Developing countries: growth of gross domestic product,
1970-90 4
3. Industrial countries: growth of gross domestic product,
1960-90 5
4. Selected social indicators for groups of nations, 1970 12
5. Levels of absolute poverty under alternative scenarios, year 2000 13
6. Contraceptive use and crude birth rates in selected developing
countries, 1977 17
7. Energy budget per capita for a steady-state civilisation 21
8. Growth and levels of gross domestic product under alternative
scenarios 22
9. Alternative assumptions for gross world product (GWP) growth
rates in Cavendish report, % 28
10. Alternative scenario demand projections 29
11. Predicted world energy demand (excluding communist countries),
UNICE 33
12. Energy/GDP elasticities 34
13. Energy supply in the year 2000 (MTDE) 35
14. Summary of energy supply in the year 2000 36
15. Potential world primary energy production (exajoules) 37
16. Energy sources as a percentage of total in 2000 and increase
over 1972 37
17. UNICE figures as a percentage of total in 2000 and increase
over 1974 37
18. Interfutures and IIASA figures as a percentage of total in 2000
and increase over 1972 38
19. Supply pattern for combined DECD indigenous supply and
import figures 38
20. Summary of source energy as a percentage of total in 2000 39
21. Source energy in 2000 as an increase over base figures 39
22. Energy balances 40
23. Development of the pattern of primary energy consumption 41
24. Dependence on imported energy 42
25. Energy balance (MTDE), 1975 43
26. World Energy Conference figures for supply and demand for
1972,2000 and 2020 49
27. Estimated future production by the main coal-producing
countries for 1985, 2000 and 2020 53
28. DE CD energy demand and supply and world oil trade.
Reference case: alternative nuclear sub-cases (MTDE) 54
29. Coal: Present and future patterns of use within the DE CD 55
x The necessity for nuclear power
30. Data of production and export of the main coal producing
countries (MTOE) 62
31. Nuclear power. State of programmes in various countries.
Situation at 1 January 1979 65
3'2. Nuclear power in operation.
Situation at 1 January 1979 66
33. Nuclear power in operation, under construction or ordered.
Si tuation at 1 January 1979 67
34. Contribution of nuclear energy to the total production of
electric power 68
35. Contributions of the different reactor types in nuclear power
ordered. Situation at 1 January 1979. 69
36. Orders received by the principal manufacturers. Situation
at 1 January 1979 70
37. Costs of a PWR nuclear power station 72
38. Balance-of-plant equipment 73
39. Energy balance (MTOE), 1975 78
40. Energy imports as a % of merchandise export earnings in 1976 78
41. Share of nuclear power in total electricity (%) 79
42. Korea: Energy consumption structure (1,000 MTCE) 81
43. USSR nuclear power stations 92
44. Nuclear power stations for CMEA countries except USSR 93
45. Nuclear capacity in year 2000 (GW(e)) 99
46. Estimated potential world electrical demand (exajoules
electrical output) 101
47. Projected world nuclear power installation (GW(e)) 103
48. Estimates of the development of installed electrical and nuclear
capacity by main country groups (1000 MW(e)) 103
49. Estimates of total world electric and nuclear energy
consumption (TWh) 104
50. Nuclear capacity (GW) 105
51. Percentage change in GNP 112
52. Energy consumption of primary sources (MTOE).
(Combustible solids and liquids, natural gas, hydro/geo/nuclear
power.) 112
53. Electricity production of OECD (GWh) 113
54. Estimated environmental damages from different pollution
sources in the model city 129
55. Selected oil spills exceeding 2,000 tons in marine waters,
OECD countries, 1967-1979 146
56. Average injury rates 1964-1969 for coal and uranium mines 148
57. Comparative data on accidents occurring in various extraction
processes from 1965 to 1969 149
58. Accidental fatalities per million workers per year 151
59. Injuries due to transport of fuel for a 1,000 MW plant 153
60. Expected numbers of annual injuries and deaths due to
occupational accidents per. 1,000 MW(e) plant for 1980 fuel cycles 154
61. Estimated number of deaths due to accidents per GWy of the
electrical energy sent out 155
62. Occupational accidental deaths from 1 year operation of a
1,000 MW electrical power plant and associated fuel cycle services 156
63. Quantities of waste products produced from fossil fuels (tons) 157
List of Tables xi
64. Annual releases of chemical pollutants from 1,000 MW(e) fossil-
fuelled power stations 159
65. Metals in fuel p.g/g (ppm) 159
66. Comparative dose commitments for coal-fired and nuclear
100 (MW(e)) generating plant from airborne releases 162
67. Effluents from 1,000 MW(e) electric power stations 163
68. Health effects associated with sulphur oxide emissions 166
69. Estimates of the costs in the USA of damage caused by
discharges of fossil fuel pollutants in 1968 167
70. Occupational injuries per year associated with operation of
1,000 MW(e) power plant (values are lowest and highest
estimates from original references) 168
71. Premature deaths per year associated with operation of a
1,000 MW(e) power plant (values are lowest and highest
estimates from original references) 168
72. Deaths and disabilities due to a 1,000 MW(e) power plant
at 75% load 169
73. Releases into the atmosphere 1975 (1,000 tons) 169
74. Catastrophic dam failures 174
75. Chlorine accidents 175
76. Approximate values of acute illness and latent effects for
100 reactors 180
77. Total deaths per 1,000 MW years of net electrical output 185
78. Dates of first atomic bombs and reactors 211
Foreword
Energy is no longer a purely technical and commercial question; it
has become a political issue affecting the welfare of all mankind
with far-reaching implications for the preservation of world peace.
It is therefore vitally important for all of us that the right energy
decisions be taken without delay and that the important contri
bution which nuclear energy can make toward the solution of the
world energy problem should not be overlooked or, even worse,
discarded.
It is now recognized that the only significant choices we have,
until at least the end of this century, for the production of
electric power are coal and nuclear energy and at some places
hydropower. Of course, we have to use all other alternative
energy sources available and capable of development, but one
should realize that by the end of the century, those sources can
only make a marginal contribution. The shrinking world reserves
and rising costs of petroleum will eventually eliminate it as a
source of energy, except for propulsion purposes and uses by the
petro-chemical industry. Conservation measures in the more
affluent countries and higher priority given to alternative energy
technologies may only retard the growth of the demand for
electricity.
To the developing world also the problems facing the nuclear
industry cannot be a question of indifference. The less nuclear
power that the industrial countries generate, the more oil they
will consume, the higher the price will go, and less oil will be
available to the developing world. The same is true of coal.
Moreover, a healthy nuclear industry in the industrial countries
is an indispensable basis for the expansion of nuclear power in
developing countries themselves.
What is the reality behind the public's apprehensions about
nuclear power? By the end of 1979, the world's installed
capacity of nuclear power amounted to 120,000 MW, or six per
cent of the world's generating capacity. By 1985, on the basis
of plants now being built, the share of nuclear power will
Increase to about 16 percent of the electricity annually pro
duced. In 1985, it will represent the equivalent of more than