The Nature of Pandemics The ongoing COVID-19 disaster—and the universal realization of the unceasing threat of even worse pandemics in the future—has resulted in a wealth of books, scientific papers, and journalistic analyses on the politics, medicine, and human tragedy of recent events. The Nature of Pandemics is not an outcrop of COVID-19 publication frenzy. It was conceived in the period between the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Ebola pandemics, intended to address the critical but commonly overlooked issues that limit our readiness, immediate recognition, and rapid response to pandemic outbreaks. The book is the first to look holistically at the nature of pandemics as a phenomenon and the challenges of mounting an organized, concerted global response to a worldwide lethal bioevent. While the majority of healthcare professionals at national and international levels recognize the danger, the establishment of consistent and effective countermeasures in the form of a global anti-pandemic network is, at best, still sporadic and inconsistent. The need to react quickly and to unhesitatingly mobilize all needed resources—rather than embark on a slow, deliberative, and politically safe approach—is probably the paramount obstacle to the effective containment of a pandemic disease. Chapters are written by internationally known and widely respected experts from the United States, Canada, Europe, Africa, Israel, Scandinavia, and South America. They represent a cross-section of professions, many with academic and medical prominence supported by their direct involvement at the very forefront of the war against pandemic outbreaks, several knowing the personal and operational challenges involved with counter-pandemic responses. All involved are active in their respective fields and offer practical, real-world expertise based on hands-on work at the “front lines,” providing profound, firsthand knowledge and recommendations for best practices. The opinions, often highly personal and perhaps even controversial, are based as much on theoretical considerations as on their extensive personal and highly insightful experience. As such, The Nature of Pandemics offers a multifaceted insight into problems that, if ignored initially, come to mar all subsequent response and mitigation efforts. The approach is rigorously intellectual and, in a field that often evokes passions, is equally rigorously dispassionate. It has to be so: in the modern world of pandemics, “past is the prologue.” Coverage provides solutions in developing readiness and mobilizing response to the current pandemic and future ones. Addressing, military and security issues, government roadblocks to response, mutual aid agreements, ethics, global health organizations and response agencies—and the harsh realities of potential mass fatalities—the book examines the myriad complexities of pandemics and the real threat outbreaks. The Nature of Pandemics Edited by Dag K.J.E. von Lubitz and Candace J. Gibson First edition published 2023 by CRC Press 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300, Boca Raton, FL 33487–2742 and by CRC Press 4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, LLC © 2023 selection and editorial matter, Dag K.J.E von Lubitz and Candace J. Gibson; individual chapters, the contributors Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and pub- lisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. 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For works that are not available on CCC please contact mpkbookspermis- [email protected] Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging‑in‑Publication Data Names: Von Lubitz, Dag K. J. E., editor. | Gibson, Candace, editor. Title: The nature of pandemics / edited by Dag K.J.E. von Lubitz, and Candace Gibson. Identifiers: LCCN 2022013147 (print) | LCCN 2022013148 (ebook) | ISBN 9781138048300 (hardback) | ISBN 9781032340609 (paperback) | ISBN 9781315170220 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Pandemics—History. | Communicable diseases—History. | World health—Diseases—History. | Epidemiology—Political aspects. Classification: LCC RA649 .N38 2023 (print) | LCC RA649 (ebook) | DDC 614.4—dc23/eng/20211013 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022013147 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022013148 ISBN: 978-1-138-04830-0 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-032-34060-9 (pbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-17022-0 (ebk) DOI: 10.4324/9781315170220 Typeset in Sabon by Apex CoVantage, LLC Contents Foreword ix Preface xi Editors xxi Contributors xxiii Section i eMeRGinG inFectioUS DiSeASeS Chapter 1 Politics, Economics, and Egos: When Agendas Conflict—A West African Case Study 3 John Jordan Chapter 2 The Socioeconomic and Security Challenges in Responding to Medical Emergencies—Pandemics or Disasters—in Post-Conflict Society: The Liberian Ebola and COVID-19 Pandemic Experiences 19 Saint Jerome Larbelee Chapter 3 Pandemics: Nature of an Emerging Global Threat: Preparedness in the African Context 55 Doudou Fall Chapter 4 Predicting Mosquito-Borne Epidemics in Latin America 77 Jaime R. Torres Section ii PReVention oF FUtURe PAnDeMicS Chapter 5 The PREDICT Project: A Transdisciplinary Case Study in Partnerships for Pandemic Prevention and Preparedness 89 David J. Wolking and Jonna A.K. Mazet Section iii MAnAGinG PAnDeMicS/DiSASteRS Chapter 6 An Administrator’s Nightmare 117 Steven D. Berkshire and Asa B. Wilson v vi Contents Chapter 7 The Cascading Impact of Infectious Diseases on the Healthcare System 127 Amesh A. Adalja Chapter 8 Supply Chain Infrastructure in Global Health Systems: A Strategic Asset for Pandemic Preparedness 137 Anne Snowdon and Alexandra Wright Section iV coMMUnicAtionS Chapter 9 Emerging Infectious Disease Communication Strategies of Health Organizations: An Internal and External View 165 Anat Gesser‑Edelsburg Chapter 10 From Woe to Go: Understanding Rumours and their Role in Preparedness and Readiness for Pandemics 195 Judith Molka‑Danielsen and Susan Balandin Chapter 11 An Exploration of the Lived Experience of African Journalists during the 2014 Ebola Crisis 211 Anne Edimo, Blanche Morel, and David M. Secko Section V inFoRMAtion tecHnoLoGY Chapter 12 Coordination of Global Efforts in Combatting Infectious Disease 239 Danny Sheath, Nefti Eboni Bempong, and Antoine Flahault Chapter 13 Health Information Technology and Infectious Disease: Learning from the Past 259 Stephanie H. Hoelscher and Dwayne Hoelscher Chapter 14 The Meaning of the Italian Fight against COVID-19: Protecting Fragile People and Defending the Social Values of Universal Public Health and Voluntary Activities through National Digital Solutions 291 Francesco Gabbrielli and Luigi Bertinato Chapter 15 Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality to Fight Effectively against Pandemics 311 Simon Richir, Abdelmajid Kadri, and Nicolas Ribeyre Section Vi SecURitY, PoLicinG, AnD tHe LAW Chapter 16 Biosecurity and the Police 351 John P. Sullivan Contents vii Chapter 17 The Impact of Pandemics on National and International Security 365 Stephen G. Waller Chapter 18 Quarantine: A Brief History of Infectious Pandemic Diseases in Canada 381 Candace J. Gibson Section Vii FinAL tHoUGHtS: tHe neXt PAnDeMic Chapter 19 Collaborative Decision Making in Crises: The Malphas Affair 405 Dag K.J.E. von Lubitz Appendix 429 Index 433 Foreword The book you now hold in your hands is not about COVID-19. Many have been already written and even more will be written. This is the book about the nature of pandemics, about their common denominators to which only scant attention is paid despite the fact that these are the factors which are the principal cause of societal devastation that pan- demics generate. The editors reached out to leading international experts in pandemic management who present and discuss a series of critical multifocal lessons learned from the worldwide frontlines of counter pandemic operations. What the authors of individual chapters highlight and propose to prevent – unpreparedness and lack of readiness - has occurred in real time on numerous occasions. The last, the COVID-19 pandemic, provided some of the most painful lessons worldwide. The healthcare workers on the ground fighting this illness have performed superbly. But the leadership, medical and political, failed miserably to apply the lessons learned from past pandemics. As Ralph Waldo Emerson pointed out “People only see what they are prepared to see!” We knew there are five principal causes of failure in any major disaster: 1 Failure to learn from history. 2 Failure of imagination. 3 Tendency to “fight the last war”. 4 An underestimation of the threat. 5 Belief the threat will never materialize with the subsequent procrastination to follow. We, as a nation and a world, lived every one of these in stark denial of the history lesson. In the early 1950s the only method for disease prevention on a large scale was hand- and surface washing to mitigate surface contamination and spread. That dictum proposed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention worked well for a long time. We knew something far worse lurked around the corner: TB, smallpox, measles, and the corona virus family were all transmitted principally as aerosols allowing patho- gens to enter their hosts via respiratory routes. Yet COVID-19, a coronavirus, was not considered to be spread by the airborne route by the CDC medical community until a full two years into the COVID-19 pandemic. The ignorance and neglect of what has either been known or could be readily anticipated proved to be extremely costly in lives lost, massive economic consequences, and unprecedented destabilization of the globe. Contributing to this, of course, was the uncertainty or even reluctance to accept anything that was either known or suspected at the beginning of the pandemic – the ix