The Mexican military and political transition.

134 Pages·2.7 MB·en_US

by  Bedingfield, Robin Claire.;Tollefson, Scott D.

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TITLE(IncludeSecurity Classification)
THEMEXICANMILITARY AND POLITICAL TRANSITION
11 PERSONALaUTHOR(s)
Bedingfiekt RobinClaire
mzETGum
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Master'sThesis FROM TO December 1992 124
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SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION
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Theviews expressedin thisthesisare thoseoftheauthoranddonotreflectthe official policyorpositionoftheDepartmentof
Defense orthe U.S. Government.
vr. COsaTICODES W. Sl"BJECTTERMS (continueon reverseifnecessaryandidentifybyblocknumber)
"fTElTT GToW SUBGROUP Mexico, Civil-Military Relations, Latin America, Political
Transition, Democratization, U.S.-Mexican Relations
19. ABSTRACT(Continueon reverseifnecessaryanaidentitybyblocknumber)
This thesis assesses the future ofMexican civil-military relations. Mexico is unique among Latin American nations for
itsprofessionalizedanddepoliticizedmilitary. While theMexican ArmedForces have shunnedan active role in politics since
1940, they continue torely on the hegemonic political party, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional, orPRI, for powerand
prestige. This dictates a close and mutually-supportive working relationship. Within the next 20 years, however, the PRI is
likely to lose its hegemonic position to increasing political opposition, severely straining the military's 60-year tradition of
loyalty to both its Constitution and party. The military will be pressured to take on a more dynamic political role with the
demise of its long-standing patron. This thesis demonstrates that the Mexican Armed Forces are likely to resist this
temptation to repoliticize.
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The Mexican Military And Political Transition
by
Robin Claire Bedingfield
Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy
B.A., Mary Washington College, 1981
Submitted in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of
MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS
from the
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
December 1992
ABSTRACT
This thesis assesses the future of Mexican civil-military relations. Mexico is unique
among Latin American nations for its professionalized and depoliticized military. While
the MexicanArmed Forces haveshunnedan active role in politicssince 1940, they continue
to rely on the hegemonic political party, the Partido Revolucionario Institutional, or PRI, for
power and prestige. This dictates a close and mutually-supportive working relationship.
Within the next 20 years, however, the PRI is likely to lose its hegemonic position to
increasing political opposition, severely straining the military's 60-year tradition ofloyalty
to both its Constitution and party. The military will be pressured to take on a more
dynamicpoliticalrole with thedemise ofitslong-standingpatron. Thisthesisdemonstrates
that the Mexican Armed Forces are likely to resist this temptation to repoliticize.
in
.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
_NTRODUCTION
II. SETTING THE THEORETICAL STAGE 4
A. DEFINING MILITARY PROFESSIONALIZATION 4
B. APPLYING THE LITERATURE 7
...
C. MEXICO'S UNIQUE CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS 13
III. LAYING THE GROUNDWORK - THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 17
A. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MILITARY IN POST-
REVOLUTIONARY MEXICO 18
1. Generals as Presidents 19
2. The Military as a Pillar of PRI Support 23
. .
Military Subordination and Political
3
Affiliation 26
B. PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND MILITARY STRUCTURE 28
1. The Role of Education 3
C. THE CHANGING ROLE OF THE ARMED FORCES IN MEXICAN
SOCIETY 32
1. The Domestic Role 35
a. The Military and the Tecnicos 40
2. The International Role 42
IV
.
IV THE CURRENT PERSPECTIVE 45
A. THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERVENTION 51
5. THE J-CURVE AND RELATIVE DEPRIVATION 53
V. FOUR SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF PRI -MILITARY
RELATIONS 58
A. POLITICAL CLOSURE 59
3. IMMOBILISM 64
C. MODERNIZATION OF AUTHORITARIANISM 72
D. LIMITED POWER SHARING 30
VI. IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. -MEXICAN RELATIONS 87
A. U.S. INFLUENCE 88
1. Mexican Defense Industry Autonomy 92
B. IMPLICATIONS OF DESTABILIZATION 93
VII. CONCLUSION 97
BIBLIOGRAPHY 102
INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 11"3
V
. ,
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This thesis examines the challenges Mexico's armed forces
will race as the country's ruling party loses its hegemony to
growing political opposition. This transition will probably
occur at the presidential level within the next 2 years,
severely straining the military's tradition of loyalty both to
its political party, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional
or PRI and to the Republic. The military will be pressured to
,
take on a more dynamic political role with the loss of its
benefactor of 60 years, the PRI president. This thesis focuses
on the likely responses of Mexico's military to this
transition, demonstrating through the application of Wayne
Cornelius and Ann Craig's model that Mexico's armed forces
will resist both internal and external pressures to
repoliticize
The thesis begins with a review and application of Latin
American civil-military literature to modern Mexico. This is
followed by a brief analysis of the Mexican Revolution (1911-
1917) and the high political profile of early post-
Revolutionary^ military leaders. Analysis of the military
presidents' voluntary subordination of the armed forces to
civil rule follows, laying the groundwork for an examination
of the potential for and probability of military intervention.
The crux of this work is the modification and application
of Cornelius and Craig's four scenarios for Mexico's future as
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