The metropolitan century : understanding urbanisation and its consequences.

130 Pages·2015·5.654 MB·English

by  OECD

The Metropolitan Century
UndersTanding UrbanisaTion and iTs ConseqUenCes
Contents
The Metropolitan Century
Introduction: The century of urbanisation
Chapter 1. A short history of urbanisation
UndersTanding UrbanisaTion and iTs
Chapter 2. The secrets of successful cities
ConseqUenCes
Chapter 3. How cities affect citizens, countries and the environment
Chapter 4. The cities of the 21st century
T
h
e
M
e
t
r
o
p
o
lit
a
n
C
e
n
t
u
r
y
U
n
d
e
r
s
T
a
n
d
in
g
U
r
b
a
n
is
a
T
io
n
a
n
d
iT
s
C
o
n
s
e
q
U
e
Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264228733-en. nC
e
s
This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases.
Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information.
isbn 978-92-64-22872-6
04 2015 03 1 P

The Metropolitan Century
UNDERSTANDING URBANISATION
AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
ThisworkispublishedundertheresponsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECD.The
opinionsexpressedandargumentsemployedhereindonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficial
viewsofOECDmembercountries.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries
andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.
Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD(2015),TheMetropolitanCentury:UnderstandingUrbanisationanditsConsequences,OECD
Publishing,Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264228733-en
ISBN978-92-64-22872-6(print)
ISBN978-92-64-22873-3(PDF)
ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityofthe relevantIsraeliauthorities.Theuse
ofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraeli
settlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw.
Photocredits:Cover©AlexanderDemyanenko/Shutterstock.com,©MaxyM/Shutterstock.com,©leungchopan/
Shutterstock.com
CorrigendatoOECDpublicationsmaybefoundonlineat:www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm.
©OECD2015
Youcancopy,downloadorprintOECDcontentforyourownuse,andyoucanincludeexcerptsfromOECDpublications,databasesand
multimediaproductsinyourowndocuments,presentations,blogs,websitesandteachingmaterials,providedthatsuitable
acknowledgmentofthesourceandcopyrightownerisgiven.Allrequestsforpublicorcommercialuseandtranslationrightsshouldbe
[e-mail]hotocopyportionsofthismaterialforpublicorcommercialuseshallbe
addresseddirectlytotheCopyrightClearanceCenter(CCC)[email protected]çaisd’exploitationdudroitdecopie
(CFC)[email protected].
3
FOREWORD –

Foreword

Urbanisation is progressing as fast as never before in history. Understanding its
causes and consequences is crucial for our ability to shape the process and ensure that it
will benefit all citizens. The Metropolitan Century explains why people move into cities
and shows that the ongoing urbanisation process promises to improve economic
conditions and the well-being of the world’s population. Urbanisation is good for
residents who move into cities because they benefit from higher wages and the proximity
to amenities. It is good for countries because cities tend to be more productive and
innovative than rural areas. Last but not least, it is good for the environment because the
environmental impact of an urban population can be smaller than the environmental
impact of the same population spread out over a large rural area.
The report focuses on OECD member countries, but its analysis and insights are
relevant beyond the OECD. Although urbanisation differs from country to country, it is
shaped by common forces that are similar all over the world. Cities are growing because
they are centres of economic activity and offer their residents opportunities for a better
life. Policy makers in every country face the task to maximise the benefits of urbanisation
while minimising its downsides. They need to provide services efficiently to residents,
ensure that cities can reap agglomeration economies and reduce agglomeration costs. This
report helps policy makers to achieve these objectives by providing a better
understanding of the mechanisms behind them.
Cities in OECD countries differ from cities in many other parts of the world in one
crucial aspect. In most OECD countries, the large majority of the population is already
living in cities. Outside the OECD, many cities are still growing rapidly. Policy makers in
such fast growing cities have even greater responsibilities than their counterparts in
mature cities. How cities are built today will shape how they look and function for a long-
time into the future, thereby affecting generations to come.
The Metropolitan Century helps to obtain a better understanding of urbanisation, and
can serve as a tool to seize the opportunities provided by urbanisation.
THE METROPOLITAN CENTURY © OECD 2015
4
– ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Acknowledgements
This report was prepared as part of the OECD “Urban Trends and Governance”
project, which benefitted from financial support of the European Commission –
DG Regional and Urban Policy. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein
do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission or the European Union.
The work was carried out in the OECD Regional Development Policy Division directed
by Joaquim Oliveira Martins. The report was supervised and co-ordinated by Rudiger
Ahrend. It was drafted by Rudiger Ahrend (Chapters 2, 3 and 4), Alexander Lembcke
(Chapter 3) and Abel Schumann (Chapters 1 and 2). Clara Brune provided substantial
inputs to the third section of Chapter 3 and Boxes 1.2 and 2.7, and William Tompson
contributed to Box 1.
Valuable comments from David Bartolini, Lewis Dijkstra, Marc-Antoine Fayet,
Daniela Glocker, Soo-Jin Kim, Karen Maguire, Joaquim Oliveira Martins,
William Tompson and Raffaele Trapasso are gratefully acknowledged. The authors
would also like to thank Emily Farchy, Catherine Gamper, Ioannis Kaplanis and
Paolo Veneri for their contribution to OECD analysis, and Laurent Faucheux, Fabio Grazi
and Henri Waisman for modelling analysis with the GEM-SE model that was undertaken
in preparation of the report and Daniel Sanchez-Serra for support with OECD data. Last
but not least, the report also benefited from comments from national delegates to the
OECD Working Party on Urban Policy and the OECD Regional Development Policy
Committee.
Data for figures were kindly provided by Christopher Kaminker (Figure 0.1),
Jane-Frances Kelly and the Grattan Institute (Figure 3.4), Tadashi Matsumoto and
Christian Pollok (Figure 3.5), Lewis Dijkstra and Hugo Poelman (Figure 3.6),
Nathaniel Baum-Snow and Ronni Pavan (Figure 3.11) and the DG Regional and Urban
Policy of the European Commission (Figure 3.20).
Ulrike Chaplar, Kate Lancaster and Gemma Nellies provided editorial assistance.
Justin Kavanagh designed the cover image. Jennifer Allain prepared the manuscript for
publication.
THE METROPOLITAN CENTURY © OECD 2015
5
TABLE OF CONTENTS –

Table of contents
Acronyms and abbreviations ........................................................................................................ 9
Executive summary ...................................................................................................................... 11
Introduction: The century of urbanisation ................................................................................ 15
The century of urbanisation ........................................................................................................ 15
Cities and national economies .................................................................................................... 15
The importance of getting cities right ........................................................................................ 16
Notes .......................................................................................................................................... 16
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................... 17
Chapter 1 A short history of urbanisation ................................................................................. 19
Chapter Synopsis ........................................................................................................................ 20
The emergence of the first cities ................................................................................................ 21
Industrialisation and the first wave of urbanisation ................................................................... 23
Post-industrial urbanisation ........................................................................................................ 25
Developing countries and the second wave of urbanisation ...................................................... 27
The end of urbanisation .............................................................................................................. 30
Notes .......................................................................................................................................... 32
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................... 32
Chapter 2 The secrets of successful cities ................................................................................... 35
Chapter Synopsis ........................................................................................................................ 36
Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 37
What makes cities big? ............................................................................................................... 37
What makes cities rich? .............................................................................................................. 45
What makes cities function well? ............................................................................................... 55
Notes .......................................................................................................................................... 72
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................... 74
Chapter 3 How cities affect citizens, countries and the environment ...................................... 79
Chapter Synopsis ........................................................................................................................ 80
Are large cities good for their residents? .................................................................................... 81
Are large cities good for a country? ........................................................................................... 96
Are large cities good for our planet? ........................................................................................ 103
Notes ........................................................................................................................................ 108
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................. 111
THE METROPOLITAN CENTURY © OECD 2015
6
– TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 4 The cities of the 21st century ................................................................................... 117
Chapter Synopsis ...................................................................................................................... 118
The challenges of 21st century urbanisation ............................................................................ 119
Preparing the cities of the future .............................................................................................. 120
The political economy of the metropolitan century ................................................................. 122
Notes ........................................................................................................................................ 123
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................. 124
Annex A Glossary ....................................................................................................................... 125
Table
Table 3.1. Urban amenities in Munich and Ingolstadt (Germany) .......................................... 90
Figures
Figure 0.1. The rise of the megacity ......................................................................................... 16
Figure 1.1. Urbanisation and economic development .............................................................. 28
Figure 2.1. Population growth in China, 1997-2013 ................................................................ 38
Figure 2.2. Ratio of the population of the capital city of a country relative to the largest
non-capital city ....................................................................................................... 41
Figure 2.3. Zipf’s law for Spanish cities ................................................................................... 42
Figure 2.4. Larger metropolitan areas are more productive, 2010............................................ 45
Figure 2.5. Productivity and city size: United Kingdom and United States ............................. 49
Figure 2.6. Productivity and city size: Germany and Mexico .................................................. 50
Figure 2.7. Less fragmented metropolitan areas have experienced higher growth................... 52
Figure 2.8. GDP growth by city: North and South America .................................................... 53
Figure 2.9. GDP growth by city: Japan/Korea.......................................................................... 53
Figure 2.10. GDP growth by city: Europe .................................................................................. 54
Figure 2.11. Decomposition of economic growth trends of metropolitan areas ......................... 54
Figure 2.12. Change in sprawl .................................................................................................... 59
Figure 2.13. Share of population satisfied with public transport provision ................................ 62
Figure 2.14. Trust and city size .................................................................................................. 69
Figure 3.1. Large cities have benefits and costs ....................................................................... 81
Figure 3.2. House prices in Paris, 2008 .................................................................................... 83
Figure 3.3. Time spent commuting (European Union and neighbouring countries) ................ 85
Figure 3.4. Urban morphology and public transport: Access to jobs in Sydney
(Australia) .............................................................................................................. 87
Figure 3.5. Access to public transport in Daejeon (Korea) ...................................................... 88
Figure 3.6. Access to public transport and city size, 2011-14 .................................................. 89
Figure 3.7. Productivity and price levels in East and West Germany ...................................... 89
Figure 3.8. Global premature deaths from selected environmental risks, 2010-50 .................. 90
Figure 3.9. Annual average PM level in cities ....................................................................... 91
10
Figure 3.10. Pollution and health problems increase with city size ........................................... 92
Figure 3.11. Wage inequality in US cities of different sizes over time ...................................... 93
Figure 3.12. Urbanisation levels across OECD countries, 2012 ................................................ 97
Figure 3.13. Metropolitan areas’ contribution to national growth, 2000-10 .............................. 98
Figure 3.14. Concentration of patenting activity, 2008 .............................................................. 98
Figure 3.15. Distance to closest metropolitan area with more than 2 million inhabitants ........ 101
Figure 3.16. Economic growth increases with proximity to large cities .................................. 102
THE METROPOLITAN CENTURY © OECD 2015
7
TABLE OF CONTENTS –

Figure 3.17. Population growth in rural regions and proximity to urban or intermediate
regions, 2000-08 ................................................................................................... 103
Figure 3.18. The ecological footprint is highest in urban agglomerations ............................... 104
Figure 3.19. CO emissions from ground transport tend to fall as population density rises ..... 105
2
Figure 3.20. Per capita sealed soil in European cities .............................................................. 106

THE METROPOLITAN CENTURY © OECD 2015