The Long Wave in the World Economy: The Current Crisis in Historical Perspective

353 Pages·1993·5.886 MB·English

by  Andrew Tylecote

The long wave in the world economy
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The long wave in the world
economy
The present crisis in historical
perspective
AAnnddrreeww TTyylleeccoottee
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First published 1992 byRoutledge
2ParkSquare,MiltonPark,Abingdon, Oxon, OX144RN
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Routledge
adivision ofRoutledge, Taylor& Francis
270MadisonAve, NewYorkNY10016
Reprinted 2001
Transferred toDigitalPrinting2006
Routledge isan imprintofthe Taylor & Francis Group
© 1992 AndrewTylecote
Typeset from author's disks byJ&L Composition Ltd, Filey,
North Yorkshire
All rights reserved. No partofthis book may be reprinted or
reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic,
mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter
invented, including photocopying and recording, orin any
informationstorageorretrievalsystem,withoutpermission in
writing from the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Tylecote, Andrew, 1946-
The long wave in the world economy: the present crisis in
historical perspective.
1. Economics. Theories
I. Title
338.54
ISBN 0-415-03690-9
Library ofCongress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
has been applied for
To Marian
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Contents
Listoffigures V111
Listoftables X
PrefaceandAcknowledgements X111
Introduction
Part I Theory
1 Thelongwavedebate 7
2 Technologicalstyles 36
3 Integration,disintegrationandcrisis 71
4 Monetaryfeedback 84
5 Populationfeedback 101
6 Inequalityfeedback(1) IntheNorth 122
7 Inequalityfeedback (2)InternationalandintheSouth 147
Part II History
Introduction: A resumeofthetheoreticalargument 183
8 A historicalaccount, 1780-1850 189
9 A historicalaccount, 1850-1896 207
lOAhistoricalaccount, 1896-1945 221
11 A historicalaccount,from 1945tothepresent 248
12 Thewaytothenextupswing 272
Notes 295
Bibliography 320
Index 329
List of figures
1.1 Kondratiev'sindexnumbersofwholesaleprices 10
1.2 World economic growth - a long wave pattern? Juglar growth
ratesinindustrialproduction 13
1.3 (a) Twentieth-century inflation: consumer prices in the USA
andUK 14
(b) Twentieth-century inflation: consumer prices in France
and Germany 14
1.4 ThePerezmodel 20
1.5 DifferentiatedPerezmodel,earlynineteenthcentury 23
1.6 DifferentiatedPerezmodel,earlytwentiethcentury 24
1.7 Feedbackloopsforaregularlongwave 27
1.8 'Counter-cyclical'feedbackloops 28
2.1 PrincipalnavigableriversinEngland,c. 1760 39
2.2 TheEnglishwaterwaysystem,1789 41
2.3 PigironproductioninEngland, 1740-1839 43
2.4 Raw cotton used in the British textile industry during the
eighteenthcentury 45
2.5 Fordistorganisationoffactoryproduction 55
2.6 SalesofUSCADturnkeyvendors- pastandprojected 58
2.7 Baker'ssignificantpatents, 1775-1965 66
4.1 Britishwholesaleprices, 1796-1965 85
4.2 Frenchwholesaleprices, 1820-1913 86
4.3 USwholesaleprices, 1800-1914 86
4.4 (a) UKprices, 1800-1913,agricultureandindustry 87
(b) UKprices, 1800-1913,industrial/agriculturalpriceratio 87
4.5 Worldoutputofgoldandsilver, 1800-1950 92
4.6 BritishandFrenchbondprices1820-1920 93
4.7 USinterestrates, 1873-1988,nominalrates,long-andshon-term 94
List of figures ix
5.1 (a) Fertility fluctuations, 1932-89, Canada, England and Wales,
andWestGermany 102
(b) Fertilityfluctuations, 1932-89,Sweden,FranceandAustralia 102
5.2 FertilityintheUSA, 1820-1980 104
5.3 (a) USimmigration, 1822-70 105
(b) USimmigration, 1870-1920 106
(c) USimmigration, 1920-70 106
5.4 EmigrationfromEurope, 1815-1908 107
5.5 Europeannaturalincreaseandemigration, 1820-1910 109
6.1 ChangesinincomedistributionintheUSA, 1866-1970 126
6.2 ChangesinUKincomedistributionsince1938 127
6.3 (a) Unionisation in the twentieth century: UK, Australia and
theUSA 132
(b) Unionisation in the twentieth century: Germany,
SwedenandNorway 132
(c) Unionisation in the twentieth century: Denmark,
CanadaandtheNetherlands 133
(d) Unionisation in the twentieth century: Switzerland,
Finland,FranceandJapan 133
6.4 ProfitsharesintheUSAandUK, 1920-84 138
7.1 Share of manufactures in developing countries' exports to the
North 154
7.2 Netbartertermsoftradeofdevelopingcountries, 1897-1986 156
7.3 Developing countries' employment-corrected double factorial
termsoftrade 157
7.4 Developingcountries'netarmsimports,as ofGNP 159
%
7.5 LegalimmigrationintotheUSAofskilledworkers, 1950-84 159
7.6 USrealinterestrates,1873-1989 162
7.7 Relative income shares in non-primary industries inJapan
1900-70 171
8.1 Aresumeofthetheory 188
8.2 USGNP, 1791-1850,withrainfallpeaksandtroughs 190
9.1 USGNP, 1850-1910,withrainfallpeaksandtroughs 218
10.1 USGNP, 1890-1950,withrainfallpeaksandtroughs 222
11.1 USGNP, 1945-89 255