The Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in 21st Century Asia

584 Pages·2008·6.878 MB·English

by  Muthiah Alagappa (editor)

The Long Shadow

The Long Shadow
Nuclear Weapons and Security
in 21st Century Asia
Edited by
Muthiah Alagappa
stanford University Press
Stanford, California 2008
Stanford University Press
Stanford, California
© 2008 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior
University. All rights reserved.
No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or
by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and
recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system without
the prior written permission of Stanford University Press.
Printed in the United States of America on acid-free,
archival-quality paper
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The long shadow : nuclear weapons and security in 21st century Asia /
edited by Muthiah Alagappa.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8047-6086-7 (cloth : alk. paper)—
ISBN 978-0-8047-6087-4 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Nuclear weapons—Government policy—Asia. 2. National
security—Asia. 3. Security, International—Asia. 4. Asia—
Military policy—21st century. I. Alagappa, Muthiah.
UA830.L66 2008
355.02'17095—dc22
2008005320
Typeset by Thompson Type in 10/13 Bembo
Contents
Tables and Figures vii
Preface and Acknowledgments ix
Contributors xv
Introduction: Investigating Nuclear Weapons in a New Era 1
Muthiah Alagappa
Part I: Historical, Strategic, and Conceptual Perspectives
1. Asia’s Security Environment: From Subordinate to
Region Dominant System 37
Muthiah Alagappa
2. Exploring Roles, Strategies, and Implications: Historical
and Conceptual Perspectives 78
Muthiah Alagappa
Part II: National Nuclear Policies and Strategies
The Nuclear Weapon States
3. United States: Nuclear Policy at a Crossroads 111
James J. Wirtz
4. Russia: “New” Inconsistent Nuclear Thinking and Policy 134
Yury Fedorov
5. China: Dynamic Minimum Deterrence 161
Chu Shulong and Rong Yu
vi Contents
6. India: The Logic of Assured Retaliation 188
Rajesh Rajagopalan
7. Pakistan: The Dilemma of Nuclear Deterrence 215
Feroz Hassan Khan and Peter R. Lavoy
8. Israel: A Sui Generis Proliferator 241
Avner Cohen
Aspirant States and Nonstate Actors
9. North Korea: Existential Deterrence and Diplomatic Leverage 269
John S. Park and Dong Sun Lee
10. Iran: The Nuclear Quandary 296
Devin T. Hagerty
11. Nuclear Terrorism: Prospects in Asia 323
S. Paul Kapur
Allies of Nuclear Weapon States
12. Japan: New Nuclear Realism 347
Michael J. Green and Katsuhisa Furukawa
13. South Korea: Fears of Abandonment and Entrapment 373
Kang Choi and Joon-sung Park
14. Taiwan: Conventional Deterrence, Soft Power,
and the Nuclear Option 404
Vincent Wei-cheng Wang
15. Australia: Back to the Future? 429
Rod Lyon
Southeast Asia
16. ASEAN: The Road Not Taken 451
Tan See Seng
Part III: Conclusion
17. Nuclear Weapons and National Security: Far-Reaching
Influence and Deterrence Dominance 479
Muthiah Alagappa
18. Reinforcing National Security and Regional Stability:
The Implications of Nuclear Weapons and Strategies 508
Muthiah Alagappa
Index 545
Tables and Figures
Tables
I-1 Nuclear Forces of Countries in the Asian Security Region 15
1-1 Projected GDPs, Per Capita Income, and Growth Rates 54
1-2 Defense Expenditures in the Asian Security Region (1995–2005) 68
1-3 Major Military Spender Countries in 2006 69
4-1 Schools of Thought on Russia’s Status and Military Position 143
4-2 Naval Forces in the Pacific 145
4-3 Elements of Russia’s Strategic Triad, 1990 and 2006 150
7-1 Estimates of Pakistan’s Fissile Material and Nuclear Weapons,
End of 2006 230
7-2 Pakistan’s Nuclear Delivery Systems 231
9-1 Estimates of North Korea’s Nuclear Capacity 277
13-1 Effect of Four Variables on South Korea’s Fear of Abandonment
and Fear of Entrapment, 1958–2007 388
13-2 Major Factors in South Korea’s Nuclear Orientation 396
14-1 Timeline of Taiwan’s Nuclear Program During the Cold War 412
14-2 Factors Influencing Taiwan’s Nuclear Decision 418
14-3 Military Power of China and Taiwan 420
viii Tables and Figures
Figures
3-1. The Drawdown of U.S. Strategic Nuclear Warheads, 1990–2012 117
4-1. Topol-M Deployment, 1997–2005 152
13-1. Recent Changes in South Korea’s Threat Perception 386
13-2. South Korea’s Threat Perception After North Korea’s Nuclear Test 387
Preface and Acknowledgments
Nuclear weapons played a central role in the strategic interaction of the two
superpowers and their allies during the Cold War. Termination of the Cold War
and the collapse of the Soviet Union quickly ended that centrality and raised
doubts about the relevance and role of nuclear weapons in the new era. With their
heyday deemed over, nuclear weapons were expected to play only a minimal se-
curity role in a dramatically altered strategic environment. Nuclear proliferation
was seen as the gravest security threat; nonproliferation became the primary con-
cern of nuclear policy in Western countries. A concerted effort was made to freeze
the Cold War nuclear order and move toward a comprehensive ban on testing.
Some hoped that this would lead to ridding the earth of nuclear weapons.
Within a decade, however, nuclear weapons started to command increasing
attention. The United States unveiled a sweeping reappraisal of its nuclear policy;
Russia began to emphasize nuclear deterrence as the major element to guarantee
its sovereignty; and Britain and France reviewed and reiterated their commitment
to retain their nuclear forces. In Asia, interest in nuclear weapons was undimin-
ished. A fast ascending China is modernizing its nuclear arsenal; a rising India and
a rather unstable Pakistan are now overt nuclear weapon states; Israel is upgrading
its substantial nuclear force; North Korea has tested short- and medium-range
missiles and carried out a partially successful nuclear test; and Iran is believed to
be seeking a nuclear weapon capability. By the turn of the twenty-first century,
old and new nuclear weapon states started to explore “new” roles and strategies
for their nuclear forces (or those of their allies) to cope with their contemporary
security challenges, including the threat of international terrorism posed by trans-
national nonstate actors. Uncertainty and debate still characterize discussion about
the security significance, roles, and implications of nuclear weapons.
x Preface and Acknowledgments
This study investigates the roles and strategies for the employment of nuclear
weapons and their implications for security and stability in a dramatically altered
strategic landscape and a substantially different nuclear environment. Its focus is
Asia, which has emerged as a distinct and core world region. With a region domi-
nant security system, fast-growing Asia has the potential to become the central
world region in the twenty-first century. The broadly defined Asian security re-
gion has six nuclear weapon states (United States, Russia, China, India, Pakistan,
and Israel), several nuclear weapon-capable states (Japan, South Korea, and Tai-
wan), and at least two aspirants (North Korea and Iran). There is also growing
interest in Asia in developing nuclear energy to meet the demands of large and
rapidly growing economies.
A chief conclusion of the study is that although they are not in the forefront,
nuclear weapons continue to be important. They cast a long shadow that informs
in fundamental ways the strategic policies of the major powers and their allies
with far-reaching consequences for security and stability in the Asian security
region. Although strategic defense and the counterforce role may increase in sig-
nificance, deterrence will continue to be the dominant role and strategy for the
employment of nuclear weapons. Deterrence, however, operates largely in a con-
dition of asymmetry and with small nuclear forces. Some view this condition and
the increase in the number of non-Western nuclear weapon states as destabilizing.
The study argues that although it is possible to envisage destabilizing situations
and consequences, thus far nuclear weapons have had a stabilizing effect in the
Asian security region. They have contributed to regional stability by assuaging
the national security concerns of vulnerable states, strengthening deterrence and
the status quo, inducing caution, preventing the outbreak and escalation of major
hostilities, and reinforcing the trend in the region that deemphasizes the offensive
role of force and increases the salience of defense, deterrence, and assurance. Ex-
tended deterrence and assurance continue to be crucial in preventing the spread of
nuclear weapons to additional states. The study posits that the Cold War nuclear
order is not in sync with present realities and must be substantially adapted or
constructed anew with a focus on Asia to address five key issues: sustaining deter-
rence in a condition of asymmetry and discouraging destabilizing capabilities and
strategies; accommodating new nuclear weapon states; preventing the spread of
nuclear weapons to additional states; preventing proliferation to nonstate actors;
and supporting the peaceful use of nuclear energy with adequate safeguards. These
and other findings of the study may be controversial and contested by those who
see nuclear weapons as the primary drivers of insecurity and perceive the world
through the dangers of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.
It is important to subject the different perspectives and findings to rigorous
analyses to develop a better understanding of the roles and implications of nuclear
weapons. This is crucial as we enter a new strategic environment that is dramati-