The little book of big decision models : the 70 most useful models to help you say yes or no

225 Pages·2016·3.717 MB·English

by  McGrath, James

70 decision-making models to help you
‘This book has become a vital part of my
make the right choice.
management toolkit. Read it and see why.’

Gary Gale, Founder and Director of Malstow Geospatial
As a busy manager, you need to make daily decisions fast. The Little
Book of Big Decision Models gives you access to the very best models
that every manager should know and be able to use to make better
decisions that get results.
Each model tells you what it is and how to use it so you can instantly
put theory into practice and start making great decisions.
Discover the decision-making models that the best in the
business use to get things done
Resolve a wide range of practical management problems
quickly and effectively by taking decisive action
Improve your understanding of the environment in
which you and your organisation make decisions
Find out about some of the best – and worst – decisions
made in management history
Be a more effective manager and prepare yourself
for promotion
All you need to know and how to apply it – in a nutshell.
J
a
‘This is a great little book, full of common sense and m
practical advice on how to become a better decision maker.’ e
s
Wayne McDougall, Founder and Managing Director, W.D.M. Cars Ltd.
M
c
£12.99 G
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CVR_MCGR8364_01_SE_CVR.indd 1 07/10/2015 11:08
James Mcgrath
The LiTTLe
Book of Big
Decision
MoDeLs
The 70 MosT UsefUL MoDeLs
To heLp YoU saY Yes or no
A01_MCGR8364_01_SE_FM.indd 1 13/10/15 5:27 pm
Pearson Education Limited
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Web: www.pearson.com/uk
first published 2016 (print and electronic)
© James Mcgrath 2016 (print and electronic)
The right of James Mcgrath to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him
in accordance with the copyright, Designs and patents act 1988.
pearson education is not responsible for the content of third-party internet sites.
isBn: 978-1-292-09836-4 (print)
978-1-292-09837-1 (pDf)
978-1-292-09839-5 (eText)
978-1-292-09838-8 (epub)
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
a catalog record for the print edition is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Mcgrath, James, 1952- author. The little book of big decision models : the 70 most useful
models to help you say yes or no / Jim Mcgrath.
pages cm
includes bibliographical references and index.
isBn 978-1-292-09836-4
1. Decision making. i. Title.
hD30.23.M3967 2016
658.4’0301—dc23
2015031454
The print publication is protected by copyright. prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage
in a retrieval system, distribution or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic,
mechanical, recording or otherwise, permission should be obtained from the publisher or,
where applicable, a licence permitting restricted copying in the United kingdom should be
obtained from the copyright Licensing agency Ltd, Barnard’s inn, 86 fetter Lane, London
ec4a 1en.
The epublication is protected by copyright and must not be copied, reproduced, transferred,
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cover design by redeyoffdesign.com
print edition typeset in helvetica neue LT pro 9.5 by spi global
printed in great Britain by henry Ling Ltd, at the Dorset press, Dorchester, Dorset
noTe ThaT anY page cross references refer To The prinT eDiTion
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To frank cunningham and phillip heath
– the long service award for friendship.
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A01_MCGR8364_01_SE_FM.indd 4 13/10/15 5:27 pm
conTenTs
about the author ix
acknowledgements x
introduction xii
how to get the most out of this book xv
SECTION 1 The principLes of Decision Making 1
introduction 3
1 Townsend’s rules of decision making 4
2 The Mcnamara fallacy: The vital information that decision makers
ignore 6
3 Using quantitative (hard) and qualitative (soft) data in decision
making 8
4 kreiner and christensen: The consequences Model 10
5 Tannenbaum and schmidt: The decision-making spectrum 12
6 rogers and Blenko: The rapiD Decision-Making Model 14
7 cognitive mapping: Understanding how your colleagues think 16
8 Tacit knowledge and decision making 18
9 The standard Decision-Making Model 20
conclusion 22
SECTION 2 Using DaTa in Decision Making 25
introduction 27
10 The pareto principle and the importance of the vital few 28
11 Lewin’s force field analysis of the support and opposition to a
decision 30
12 scenario analysis and charting possible futures 32
13 Delphic forecasting and how to firm up predictions 34
14 Johnson, scholes and Whittington: Mapping stakeholders’
reactions 36
15 egan’s shadow side Model: Dealing with the politics of
decisions 38
16 The scaMper Model and finding creative solutions 40
17 De Bono’s six Thinking hats Model: generating different
perspectives 42
conclusion 44
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vi conTenTs
SECTION 3 enhancing YoUr Decision-Making
skiLLs 47
introduction 49
18 The eisenhower principle and the delegation of
decisions 50
19 The feedback and criticism continuum 52
20 Learning to think outside the box 54
21 goleman: Using emotional intelligence to make better
decisions 56
22 ghoshal and Bruch: reclaiming your job 58
conclusion 60
SECTION 4 Decision MoDeLs aBoUT YoU 61
introduction 63
23 christensen’s strategy for a happy life 64
24 Dealing with your past: hang-ups and triumphs 66
25 Dealing with dilemmas 68
26 ethical decision making 70
27 Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, wants and dreams 72
28 csikszentmihalyi’s flow Model and the joy of working in
‘the zone’ 74
29 Johari Windows: a guide to your personality 76
30 Managing unrealistic expectations 78
31 Your attitude to risk 80
32 Deciding when to abandon ship 82
conclusion 84
SECTION 5 Decision MoDeLs aBoUT oTher peopLe 87
introduction 89
33 how to choose your default management style 90
34 Deciding if you are a manager or a leader 92
35 appointment decisions 94
36 goffee and Jones: Why should anyone be led by you? 96
37 hersey and Blanchard: The situational Leadership Model 98
38 Manzoni and Barsoux: how managers set staff up to fail 100
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conTenTs vii
39 Dansereau, graen and haga: how managers set staff
up to succeed 102
40 herzberg’s Motivation and hygiene Theory: choosing the
right carrots 104
41 The feedback sandwich: Delivering negative feedback 106
42 Mcgregor’s features of effective and ineffective teams 108
43 ruiz’s four agreements – acting with integrity 110
conclusion 112
SECTION 6 sTraTegic anD MarkeT Decision
MoDeLs 115
introduction 117
44 The standard product Life cycle Model 118
45 The Long-Tail Market Model 120
46 The chasm Market Model 122
47 Milgram’s six Degrees of separation Model 124
48 kim and Mauborgne’s Blue ocean strategy 126
49 offshoring core activities 128
50 Moore’s headpin Model 130
51 The Boston consulting group Matrix 132
conclusion 135
SECTION 7 organisaTionaL ThreaT anaLYsis 137
introduction 139
52 sWoT – Done right! 140
53 pesT – Done right! 142
54 The Unexploded Bomb Model: Unknown and unforeseen
threats 144
55 Taleb: The Black swan Model and unknowable threats 146
56 The Black Box Model 148
conclusion 150
SECTION 8 financiaL anD sTaTisTicaL MoDeLs 153
introduction 155
57 risk–reward analysis 156
58 kaplan and norton: The balanced scorecard 158
59 Discounted cashflow (Dcf): calculating today’s value of
tomorrow’s returns 160
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viii conTenTs
60 cost–Benefit analysis: accounting for non-financial factors 162
61 Breakeven analysis: knowing if you can reduce prices 164
62 gap analysis: closing the gap between forecast and target 168
63 Zero-based budgeting: Making the right budget cuts 170
conclusion 172
SECTION 9 hoW To sUccessfULLY iMpLeMenT
YoUr Decisions 175
introduction 177
64 round’s Trap Model 178
65 Johnson’s three rules of project management 180
66 shewhart’s plan, Do, check, act (pDca) implementation
Model 182
67 orlandella and reason: The swiss cheese Model and
how to stop problems escalating 184
68 setting sMarT targets that get results 186
69 kim and Mauborgne’s Tipping point Leadership: how to avoid
implementation problems 188
70 cooperrider and srivastva’s appreciative inquiry (ai) Model and the
power of positivity 190
conclusion 192
personal characteristics and how they can produce good and bad
decisions 195
The first 11 Team 198
a final word 199
recommended reading 201
index 203
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aBoUT The aUThor
James is a qualified accountant with over 25 years’ experience of work-
ing in the public and private sectors as an accountant, auditor, financial
controller and management consultant.
he joined the University of central england in 1998 where he was the
course Director for the Ma in education and professional Development.
he studied for his doctorate at The University of Birmingham and wrote his
doctoral thesis on management and leadership in education.
he has co-written five books including The Little Book of Big Management
Theories which won the 2015 cMi Management Book of the Year award:
practical Manager category. his first solo book was The Little Book of Big
Management Questions.
his first novel A Death in Winter: 1963 will be published in December
2015.
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