The Learning Sciences in Educational Assessment Th ere is mounting hope in the United States that federal legislation in the form of No Child Left Behind and the Race to the Top fund will improve educational outcomes. As titanic as the challenge appears to be, however, the solution could be at our fi ngertips. Th is volume identifi es visual types of cognitive models in reading, science, and mathematics for researchers, test developers, school administrators, policy makers, and teachers. In the process of identifying these cognitive models, the book also explores methodological or translation issues to consider as decisions are made about how to gen- erate psychologically informative and psychometrically viable large-scale assessments based on the learning sciences . Initiatives to overhaul educational systems in disrepair may begin with national policies, but the success of these policies will hinge on how well stakeholders begin to rethink what is possible with a keystone of the educational system: large-scale assessment. Jacqueline P. Leighton is Professor of Educational Psychology and Director of the Centre for Research in Applied Measurement and Evaluation at the University of Alberta. She is also registered as a psychologist by the College of Alberta Psychologists. Her specialization is educational assessment and cog- nitive psychology, with an emphasis on test development and validity analy- sis. Dr. Leighton’s current research is on identifying and evaluating methods for generating cognitive models for educational-assessment practice. Her research has been funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Canadian Education Statistics Council and is cur- rently funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. Mark J. Gierl is Professor of Educational Psychology at the University of Alberta. His specialization is educational and psychological testing, with an emphasis on the application of cognitive principles to assessment practices. Dr. Gierl’s current research is focused on diff erential item and bundle func- tioning, cognitive diagnostic assessment, and assessment engineering. His research is funded by both the College Board and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He holds the Canada Research Chair in Educational Measurement. Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Wed Oct 10 12:10:59 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9780511996276 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Wed Oct 10 12:10:59 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9780511996276 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 Th e Learning Sciences in Educational Assessment The Role of Cognitive Models Jacqueline P. Leighton University of Alberta Mark J. Gierl University of Alberta Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Wed Oct 10 12:10:59 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9780511996276 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 cambridge university press Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City Cambridge University Press 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York , ny 10013-2473, usa www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521194112 © Jacqueline P. Leighton and Mark J. Gierl 2011 Th is publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2011 Printed in the United States of America A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data Leighton, Jacqueline P. Th e learning sciences in educational assessment: the role of cognitive models/ Jacqueline P. Leighton, Mark J. Gierl. p. cm. Includes index. isbn 978-0-521-19411-2 (hardback) 1. Educational tests and measurements. 2. Educational psychology. 3. Cognition. I. Gierl, Mark J. II. Title. lb3051.l425 2011 371.260973–dc22 2011004251 isbn 978-0-521-19411-2 Hardback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Wed Oct 10 12:10:59 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9780511996276 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 Contents 1 Th e Learning Sciences in Educational Assessment: An Introduction page 1 2 Evaluating Cognitive Models in Large-Scale Educational Assessments 45 3 Cognitive Models of Task Performance for Reading Comprehension 71 4 Cognitive Models of Task Performance for Scientifi c Reasoning and Discovery 115 5 Cognitive Models of Task Performance for Mathematical Reasoning 156 6 Putting It All Together: Cognitive Models to Inform the Design and Development of Large-Scale Educational Assessment 197 7 Cognitively Based Statistical Methods – Technical Illustrations 234 Index 2 65 v Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Wed Oct 10 12:11:01 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9780511996276 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Wed Oct 10 12:11:01 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9780511996276 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 Cambridge Books Online http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ The Learning Sciences in Educational Assessment The Role of Cognitive Models Jacqueline P. Leighton, Mark J. Gierl Book DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511996276 Online ISBN: 9780511996276 Hardback ISBN: 9780521194112 Paperback ISBN: 9780521122887 Chapter 1 - The Learning Sciences in Educational Assessment: An Introduction p p. 1-44 Chapter DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511996276.001 Cambridge University Press 1 Th e Learning Sciences in Educational Assessment: An Introduction V ictor Hugo is credited with stating that “Th ere is nothing more p owerful than an idea whose time has come.” In educational achieve- ment testing, 1 a multi-billion-dollar activity with profound implica- tions for individuals, governments, and countries, the idea whose time has come, it seems, is that l arge-scale achievement tests must be designed according to the science of human learning . Why this idea, and why now? To begin to set a context for this idea and this ques- tion, a litany of research studies and public policy reports can be cited to make the simple point that students in the United States and abroad are performing relatively poorly in relation to expected stan- dards and projected economic growth requirements (e.g., American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1 993; Chen, Gorin, Th ompson, & Tatsuoka, 2 008; Grigg, Lauko, & Brockway, 2 006; Hanushek, 2003 , 2009 ; Kilpatrick, Swaff ord, & Findell, 2 001; Kirsch, Braun, & Yamamoto, 2007 ; Manski & Wise, 1983 ; Murnane, Willet, Dulhaldeborde, & Tyler, 2000 ; National Commission on Excellence in Education, 1 983; National Mathematics Advisory Panel, 2 008; National Research Council, 2005 , 2007 , 2009 ; Newcombe et al., 2009 ; Phillips, 2007 ; Provasnik, Gonzales, & Miller, 2009 ). According to a 2007 article in the N ew York Times, Gary Phillips, chief scientist at the American Institutes for Research , was quoted as saying, “our Asian 1 Th e terms “testing” and “assessment” are used interchangeably in the present v olume to denote formal measurement techniques and evaluation procedures. 1 Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Wed Oct 10 12:11:05 BST 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511996276.001 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 2 Th e Learning Sciences in Educational Assessment economic competitors are winning the race to prepare students in math and science.” Phillips made this comment in relation to a report equat- ing the standardized large-scale test scores of grade-eight students in each of the fi ft y U.S. states with those of their peers in forty-fi ve coun- tries. Underlying the sentiment in this quote is the supposition that test scores reveal valuable information about the quality of student learn- ing and achievement2 for feeding future innovation and economic growth. If test scores reveal that U.S. students are underperforming relative to their peers in other countries, then learning is likely being compromised, and innovation and economic growth may also falter. To change this potentially grim outcome, there are at least three options: Change the educational system , change the large-scale tests,3 or change both. In the balance of this book, we focus on the sec- ond option – changing the large-scale tests. Th is decision does not indicate that the fi rst and third options lack merit. In fact, the third option is ideal. However, in this fi rst chapter, we present a rationale for why it makes sense to focus on changing tests, that is, to design and develop large-scale educational assessments based on the learn- ing sciences. To start, we discuss the relatively poor test performance of many U.S. students as an impetus for the growing motivation in North America to enhance the information large-scale educational 2 Although we recognize that learning and achievement sometimes connote diff er- ent ideas (e.g., learning might be used in relation to the processes involved in the acquisition of knowledge and skills, and achievement might be used in relation to demonstrations of those knowledge and skills), learning and achievement are used interchangeably in this volume. Th e goal of most educational initiatives and institutions is to have learning and achievement overlap signifi cantly. In addition, developers of achievement tests strive to design measures that are sensitive to progressions in learning. 3 Th e focus is on large-scale educational testing because testing companies and assessment branches of government agencies have the human and fi nancial cap- ital to consistently develop, refi ne, and administrate standardized, psychometri- cally sound assessments based on scientifi c cognitive learning models for large numbers of students. Although classroom tests could also be developed from fi ndings in the learning sciences, these are less likely to be developed according to the same models due to a lack of resources. Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Wed Oct 10 12:11:05 BST 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511996276.001 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 An Introduction 3 assessments currently provide about student learning. Next, we pres- ent well-accepted knowledge from the learning sciences about the nature of thinking, learning, and performance to help determine the types of knowledge and skill components that may be required for measurement as large-scale educational assessments are designed and developed. Aft er that, illustrative empirical studies in the fi eld of educational measurement are reviewed to demonstrate the nature of the attempts to design and develop assessments based on the learning sciences (also commonly referred to as cognitive diagnostic assessments [CDA] or c ognitively based tests ; see Leighton & Gierl, 2007 ). Th en, we off er a view on what is needed in the fi eld of educational assessment to incorporate and systematically evaluate cognitive models in the design and development of large-scale assessments. Finally, we present a con- clusion and roadmap for the present volume that outlines the rationale and content of the next six chapters, including what may be needed to change large-scale tests and ensure they provide the information about student learning and achievement many stakeholders seek. The Impetus for Change: Low Achievement Test Results Th e U.S. Department of Education ( 2008 ) posted the following sum- mary of the results achieved by fi ft een-year-old American students in reading, science, and mathematics on the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA™) a dministered by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, 2007 , 2009 ; see also U.S. results on Th ird International Mathematics and Science Study [TIMSS] , Hanushek, 2009 ): 1. In the 2003 PISA administration , which focused on reading literacy , U.S. students received an average score just higher than the OECD average of approximately 500 (i.e., 495 versus 494, respectively; see OECD, 2 003) but lower than seventeen Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Wed Oct 10 12:11:05 BST 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511996276.001 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012