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The Leadership Capital Index The Leadership Capital Index A New Perspective on Political Leadership Edited by Mark Bennister, Ben Worthy, and Paul ‘t Hart 1 3 GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OX26DP, UnitedKingdom OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide.Oxfordisaregisteredtrademarkof OxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountries ©OxfordUniversityPress2017 Themoralrightsoftheauthorshavebeenasserted FirstEditionpublishedin2017 Impression:1 Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedin aretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthe priorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermitted bylaw,bylicenceorundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographics rightsorganization.Enquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeofthe aboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,atthe addressabove Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyOxfordUniversityPress 198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY10016,UnitedStatesofAmerica BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData Dataavailable LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016959376 ISBN 978–0–19–878384–8 Printedandboundby CPIGroup(UK)Ltd,Croydon,CR04YY LinkstothirdpartywebsitesareprovidedbyOxfordingoodfaithand forinformationonly.Oxforddisclaimsanyresponsibilityforthematerials containedinanythirdpartywebsitereferencedinthiswork. Acknowledgments The seeds of this project were sown several years ago. The original ideas around leadership capital were first presented by Mark Bennister and Ben Worthy at the Political Studies Association (PSA) Annual Conference at the UniversityofSwanseain2012.Theseideasweresubsequentlydevelopedand improved as Paul ‘t Hart joined the team. This initial work was tested at a specialseminarofthePSAPoliticalLeadershipSpecialistGroupattheUniver- sityofLeedsin2012.WearegratefultothePOLISteamatLeeds,inparticular Kevin Theakston, for providing this opportunity to set out the leadership capital ideas. The work was further tested at the PSA Political Leadership Annual Conference at the University of East Anglia in January 2014 and we are grateful to Toby James for his support. Subsequently the framework was published in West European Politics; meanwhile we were keen to develop comparative case study analysis. The European Consortium of Political Research (ECPR) provided the forum in which country experts could apply the leadership capital concept and the index to a range of cases. We are grateful for the support which the ECPR and the University of Salamanca provided in April2014 ata most productive workshop. Wewish to acknow- ledgeallthosewhoparticipatedintheworkshop,regardlessofwhetherthey contributed chapters to this volume. Our theoretical framework and index benefited from the input of participants, who also gave valued assistance in highlighting national political contexts relevant to their own cases. Indeed, theentireprojecthasbeenenhancedbythecollaborativeprocessinvolvedin producingthisvolume. Wewouldalsoliketothankallthosewhoprovidedfeedbackandcomments ondraftsatvariousstages,particularlyRodRhodesandPaulWebb.Wehave presented papers at our home universities in research seminars and Mark BennisterbenefitedfromCanterburyChristChurchUniversityresearchfund- ing.MarijSwinkelsacknowledgesthegenerousresearchfundingforherwork on this project received from CRISMART, Center for Crisis Management Research and Training at the Swedish Defence University. We have also presentedatseveralPSA,ECPReventsandatthe1stInternationalConference ofthePublicandPoliticalLeadership(PUPOL)Network.Wearegratefultoall Acknowledgments theresearchstudentsandcolleagueswhohaveprovidedsupportandsugges- tionsattheseevents.OurgreatestdebtofgratitudegoestoMirthedeKokwho tookontheHerculeantaskofknockingthechaptersintoaconsistentshape. WeoweadebtofgratitudetotheefficientandhelpfulstaffatOxfordUniver- sityPress,inparticularDominicByattandOliviaWells. Wededicatethisbooktoourfamiliesand,inparticular,tothememoryof StellaBennister. MarkBennister BenWorthy Paul‘tHart June2016 vi Contents ListofFigures ix ListofTables xi NotesonContributors xiii 1. UnderstandingPoliticalLeadership:TheLeadership CapitalApproach 1 MarkBennister,Paul‘tHart,andBenWorthy 2. TurningStructuralWeaknessintoPersonalStrength: AngelaMerkelandthePoliticsofLeadershipCapitalinGermany 27 LudgerHelmsandFemkevanEsch 3. “NoLoansforLadies”:JuliaGillardandCapitalDenied 45 JamesWalter 4. FromTriumphtoTragedy:TheLeadershipParadoxofLyndon BainesJohnson 63 JonJohansson 5. A“Meteoric”CareerinHungarianPolitics 82 AndrásKörösényi,PéterOndré,andAndrásHajdú 6. JerryBrownandtheTriumphofLeadership:LeadershipCapital andtheFinancialRescueofCalifornia 101 CharlesF.Parker 7. LimitstoDominance?ComparingtheLeadershipCapital ofMargaretThatcherandTonyBlair 121 MarkBennisterandBenWorthy 8. (Mis)ManagingLeadershipCapital:CanadianPrimeMinisters 144 JonathanMalloy 9. ModernPrime-MinisterialLeadershipintheNetherlands: ConsensusorConfrontation? 164 MarijSwinkels,SabinevanZuydam,andFemkevanEsch Contents 10. SwedishCoalitionGovernmentsandtheQuestforRe-election 183 FredrikBynanderandPärDaléus 11. LeadershipCapitalinaProtractedCrisis:SpanishPrime MinistersCompared 207 JoséA.OlmedaandCésarColino 12. TheLeadershipCapitalofItalianPresidents:ThePolitics ofConstraintandMoralSuasion 226 SelenaGrimaldi 13. MeasuringandUsingLeadershipCapital:IssuesandExtension 250 JeanBlondel 14. LeadershipCapital:ABourdieuianReinterpretation 263 ErikJentges 15. Conclusions:LCIRevisited 279 MarkBennister,Paul‘tHart,andBenWorthy Index 295 viii List of Figures 2.1. Trajectoryofarock-solidleader 29 2.2. Merkel’sleadershipcapital2005–2010 38 4.1. Johnson’sLCIscoresacrosstime 77 5.1. ThepopularityofFerencGyurcsányandViktorOrbán 92 6.1. Timetrends:ApprovalratingsforGov.Brownandthe Californialegislature 110 7.1. Netapprovalratings:ThatcherandBlair 129 7.2. ThatcherandBlair’sleadershipcapital 138 10.1. Bildt’spersonalpollratingrelativetotheoppositionleader 187 10.2. Bildt’slevelofpublictrustinrelationtotheoppositionleader’s 189 10.3. Reinfeldt’spersonalpollratingrelativetotheoppositionleader 196 10.4. Reinfeldt’slevelofpublictrustinrelationtotheoppositionleader’s 197 11.1. Primeministerinterviewswithbroadcastmedia:Rodríguez Zapatero2004–2008,and2008–2011;Rajoy2012–2015 214 11.2. RodríguezZapatero’spersonalpollratingrelativetotheopposition leader(meanover10),2004–2007,and2008–2011 214 11.3. SnapshotsofZapatero’sandRajoy’sleadershipcapital 222 12.1. CommunicativeperformanceofItalianpresidents,monthly visibilitymeanoftotaltime(TT)onthreeRaiChannels (secondsperyear) 236 12.2. LeveloftrustofItalianpresidentsperyear(percentagevalues) 240 14.1. Thepoliticalfieldanditsenvironment 269 14.2. Personalpoliticalcapital 274 14.3. Delegatedpoliticalcapital 274

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