The laws of belief: ranking theory and its philosophical applications

615 Pages·2014·3.84 MB·English

by  Spohn, Wolfgang

The Laws of Belief
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The Laws of Belief
Ranking Theory and its
Philosophical Applications
Wolfgang Spohn
1
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1
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© Wolfgang Spohn 2012
The moral rights of the author have been asserted
1st Edition copyright 2012
Impression: 1
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ISBN 978–0–19–969750–2
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Time has told me, Ulli
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Contents
Preface xii
1 Introduction 1
2 Belief and its Objects 16
3 The Probabilistic Way 32
4 The Representation of Belief: Some Standard Moves 47
5 Ranking Functions 65
6 Reasons and Apriority 104
7 Conditional Independence and Ranking Nets 125
8 The Measurement of Ranks 162
9 Supposing, Updating, and Refl ection 185
10 Ranks and Probabilities 200
11 Comparisons 225
12 Laws and their Confi rmation 271
13 Ceteris Paribus Conditions and Dispositions 304
14 Causation 338
15 Objectifi cation 442
16 Justifi cation, Perception, and Consciousness 472
17 The A Priori Structure of Reasons 521
Bibliography 556
Name Index 581
Subject Index 586
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Detailed Contents
Preface xii
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Some Refl ections on Skepticism and the Problem of Induction 1
1.2 The Agenda 8
2. Belief and its Objects 16
2.1 The Formal Representation 17
2.2 Interpretation: The Noncommittal Way 21
2.3 A More Determinate View 26
3. The Probabilistic Way 32
3.1 The Basic Laws of Subjective Probability 33
3.2 The Dynamics of Subjective Probability 37
3.3 Probability and Belief 43
4. The Representation of Belief: Some Standard Moves 47
4.1 The Basic Laws of Belief 47
4.2 The Dynamics of Belief 51
4.3 Equivalent Formulations 55
4.4 AGM Belief Revision Theory 58
5. Ranking Functions 65
5.1 The Problem of Iterated Belief Change 65
5.2 Ranking Functions 69
5.3 Conditional Ranks 77
5.4 The Dynamics of Ranking Functions 82
5.5 Conditionalization Generalizes AGM Belief Revision and Contraction 88
5.6 An Appendix on Iterated AGM Belief Revision and Contraction 91
5.7 A Further Appendix on Multiple Contraction 98
6. Reasons and Apriority 104
6.1 Explicating Reasons 104
6.2 The Formal Structure of Reasons 109
6.3 The Balance of Reasons 115
6.4 The Force of Reasons 118
6.5 Maximal Certainty, Unrevisability, and Apriority 121
7. Conditional Independence and Ranking Nets 125
7.1 Independence Among Propositions and Among Variables 127
7.2 An Example: Mr. Holmes and His Alarm 134
7.3 Ranking Nets and Bayesian Nets 142
7.4 Propagation in Local Ranking and Bayesian Nets 152
7.5 Appendix on Independent Testimonies 160
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