The International Nuclear Non-Proliferation System: Challenges and Choices

214 Pages·1984·18.912 MB·English

by  John Simpson, Anthony G. McGrew (eds.)

THE INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR
NON-PROLIFERATION SYSTEM
In September 1985 at Geneva, representatives of up to 120
states will gather at the review conference of the Non
Proliferation Treaty to take stock ofits accomplishments and to
discuss ways of improving its operation and extending its
membership. In some cases, the outcome of the conference will
determine whether states remain in membership and maintain
their legal commitment not to acquire nuclear weapons.
The International Non-Proliferation System: Challenges and Choices
focuses upon the issues likely to be raised at this conference,
and attempts to address the international diplomatic, political
and trading, rather than technical, questions that surround
nuclear non-proliferation policies. It does so by bringing
together chapters contributed by participants in non
proliferation diplomacy, those with experience of shaping
IAEA and national policies and academic observers of non
proliferation activities and the international nuclear industry.
An analysis is provided of past non-proliferation policies and
activities and current issues, and a positive attempt is made to
offer ideas for new initiatives that may sustain the non
proliferation system in the future.
Also by John Simpson
THE INDEPENDENT NUCLEAR STATE: The United
States, Britain and the Military Atom
Also by Anthony G. McGrew
DECISION-MAKING: Approaches and Analysis
(editor with M.]. Wilson)
THE INTERNATIONAL
NUCLEAR
NON-PROLIFERATION
SYSTEM
Challenges and Choices
Edited by
John Simpson and
Anthony G. McGrew
M
MACMILLAN
©John Simpson and Anthony G. McGrew 1984
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1984 978-0-333-38482-4
All rights reserved. No part of this publication
may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form
or by any means, without permission
First published 1984 by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
London and Basingstoke
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
Typeset by
Wessex Typesetters Ltd,
Frome, Somerset
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Simpson, john, 1943-
The international nuclear non-proliferation
system.
I. Atomic weapons and disarmament
I. Title II. McGrew, Anthony G.
327.1'74 JX1974.7
ISBN 978-1-349-07724-3 ISBN 978-1-349-07722-9 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-07722-9
Contents
Notes on the Contributors
lX
Preface
Xl
Glossary of Abbreviations
Xlll
Introduction: Nuclear Non-Proliferation at the
Crossroads? 1
Anthony G. McGrew
I Pessimists v. Optimists 2
II The Challenges to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
S~rem 4
III From Challenges to Choices 13
PART I THE PRESENT SYSTEM
1 The Development of Current Non-Proliferation
Policies 19
M. J. Wilmshurst
I Introduction 19
II Denial and Control: 1945-74 20
III The Loss of Consensus: 1974-8 23
IV New Attempts to Deny and Control: 1974-8 28
v
The Policies of the 1970s- What Went Wrong? 49
2 The Role of the IAEA 55
D. A. V. Fischer
I The Status of the Non-Proliferation System 55
II The Risks of Diversion of Fissile Material to
Military Use and Withdrawal from the NPT 56
III The Risks Arising from Competition between
Exporters 60
v
VI Contents
IV The Politicisation of the IAEA and the
Effectiveness of its Safeguards 62
V The Future of the Non-Proliferation System 64
3 Academic Perspectives on the Non-Proliferation
Problem 69
P. Gummett
I Introduction 69
II The Key Policy Concerns 72
III Less Immediate Policy Questions 75
IV Is More Better? 76
V Academic Questions or Real Concerns? 79
PART II CURRENT ISSUES AND POLICIES
4 Nuclear Non-Proliferation and the Present State of
the International Nuclear Industry 91
W. B. Walker
I Introduction 91
II From Monopoly to Pluralism 92
III The Effects of Recession 94
IV The Export Market 95
V Nuclear Trade Standards 97
VI The Risks ofTransatlantic Discord 99
VII Responsibilities Towards the Nuclear Trade
Regime 102
VIII Avoidance of Conflict 106
5 The USA's Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policy 109
]. B. Devine
I Introduction 109
II Changes in Diplomatic Tactics but not on
Principles 110
III The USA and IAEA Safeguards 116
IV Conclusion 118
Contents Vll
6 British Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policy and the
Trident Purchase 119
D. Keohane
I The Rationale Behind a Non-Proliferation
System 119
II The Argument that British Acquisition ofTrident
is Compatible with Non-Proliferation
Objectives
121
III The Argument that Support for Trident is
Incompatible with Non-Proliferation
Objectives 124
IV Unilateral Nuclear Disarmament and Nuclear·
Non-Proliferation 128
v
Conclusions 131
PART III THE FUTURE
7 Reforming the Non-Proliferation System in the
1980s 137
M.]. Wilmshurst
I Global Controls and the Motivations for
Proliferation 137
II How Can the Non-Proliferation Policies of the
1980s Be Made More Successful? 140
III Possible Amendments to the NPT 145
IV An International Code ofN uclear Energy Related
Behaviour 149
v
Persuading Potential Nuclear-Weapon States to
Join the NPT 150
VI The Need to Restore Consensus 153
VII The Committee on Assurances of Supply 155
VIII Conclusion: Changing the Focus of
Non-Proliferation Efforts 158
Vlll Contents
8 The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Problem:
Diagnosis and Treatment 161
john Simpson
I Introduction 161
II The Nature of Nuclear Proliferation: The Patient
and the Illness 162
III Possible Innovations in Non-Proliferation
Policies: The Treatment 167
IV Some Fundamental Problems of Analysis: The
Diagnosis 17 4
V The Way Forward? 179
Appendix A The 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of
Nuclear Weapons and Possible Amendments 185
Select Bibliography Peter Lomas 193
Index 205
Notes on the Contributors
J. B. Devine was appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Nuclear Energy and Energy Technology Affairs in the US State
Department in 1982. Prior to that he held posts in the Office of
Nuclear Affairs in the State Department and in the Nuclear
Regulatory Commission.
D. A. V. Fischer is a consultant to the IAEA, having been its
Director for External Affairs between 1956 and 1981.
P. Gummett is Senior Lecturer in the Department of Science
and Technology Policy and Co-ordinator of the Programme of
Policy Research in Engineering, Science and Technology
(PREST) at the University of Manchester. He is the author of
Scientists in Whitehall.
D. Keohane is a Lecturer in International Relations at the
University of Keele.
Peter Lomas is a research assistant currently working on
the creation of a nuclear non-proliferation data base for the
Centre for International Policy Studies at the University of
Southampton.
Anthony G. McGrew is a Lecturer in Government at the Open
University with major research interests in the international
policies of the nuclear industry.
John Simpson is Senior Lecturer in Politics and Deputy
Director of the Centre for International Policy Studies at the
University of Southampton. He is the author of The Independent
Nuclear State: The United States, Britain and the Military Atom.
IX