The Impact of Cleavages on Swiss Voting Behaviour: A Modern Research Approach PDF
Preview The Impact of Cleavages on Swiss Voting Behaviour: A Modern Research Approach
Contributions to Political Science Andreas C. Goldberg The Impact of Cleavages on Swiss Voting Behaviour A Modern Research Approach Contributions to Political Science Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/11829 Andreas C. Goldberg The Impact of Cleavages on Swiss Voting Behaviour A Modern Research Approach 123 AndreasC.Goldberg AmsterdamSchoolofCommunication Research(ASCoR) UniversityofAmsterdam Amsterdam,TheNetherlands Additionalmaterialtothisbookcanbedownloadedfromhttp://extras.springer.com. ISSN2198-7289 ISSN2198-7297 (electronic) ContributionstoPoliticalScience ISBN978-3-319-45999-8 ISBN978-3-319-46000-0 (eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-319-46000-0 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016955550 ©SpringerInternationalPublishingAG2017 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof thematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations,recitation, broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformation storageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodology nowknownorhereafterdeveloped. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthispublication doesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthisbook arebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsor theeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforany errorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade. Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Acknowledgements This book is based on my doctoral thesis entitled “The impact of cleavages in a longitudinalandcontextualperspective”whichIdefendedattheGenevaSchoolof SocialSciencesattheUniversityofGenevainNovember2015. During the preparation of this publication, I received valuable comments and supportfromvariouspersonsandinstitutions,whichIwouldliketothank.Firstand foremost, I would like to thank my supervisor Pascal Sciarini for his continuous support since the start of my doctoral studies. He has always been very generous withhistimeandhasgivenmepreciousadvicetodeveloptheoriginaloutlineofthe projectintothis finalversion.I wouldalso like to thanktheothermembersofmy jury–SimonHug,MarkFranklinandHanspeterKriesi–forthelivelydiscussion duringthedefenceandtheveryhelpfulcommentstheyprovidedmewith.Aspecial thanksinthiscontextgoestoSimonHugforhisstatisticaladvicesthroughoutthe lastyears. My doctoral project was a cooperation between the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Geneva and the Swiss ElectoralStudiesbasedatFORSinLausanne.Althoughthecollaborationwiththe Swiss Electoral Studies, especially following the 2011 Swiss national elections, meant a lot of work, I really enjoyed working in our team. Under the leadership of Georg Lutz, I learned a lot about the data basis I used for this publication. I wouldalsoliketothankmySELECTScolleaguesNicolasPekari,ThomideRocchi, RobertBaurandRetoWattenhoferforourmeetingsandinspiringdiscussions. During the last years, I also had the chance to meet several scholars working on similar topics who provided valuable feedback and assistance with occurring problems. Here, I want to mention especially Daniel Oesch, Romain Lachat, Line Rennwald and Nathalie Giger. I further want to thank the colleagues at the University of Geneva for the nice and stimulating working atmosphere. For proofreading the book, my thanks go to Colleen Tait and Monique Beerli, who kindlyagreedtoreadpartsoreventhewholemanuscript. Last but not least, I want to thank my family and friends who supported me duringmyresearchproject.Forthefinancialfunding,Igratefullyacknowledgethe supportbytheSwissNationalScienceFoundation(GrantNr10FI13-133957). v Contents 1 Introduction .................................................................. 1 References..................................................................... 6 2 TheoryofCleavageVoting.................................................. 9 2.1 SchoolsofElectoralResearch.......................................... 10 2.2 ElectoralBehaviourinaCleavagePerspective........................ 12 2.2.1 DefinitionofCleavage.......................................... 13 2.2.2 LinkingtheCleavageConcepttoRealVoting................. 16 2.2.3 HistoricalCleavagesandNewTypes.......................... 18 2.2.4 RecentDevelopments........................................... 22 2.2.5 CleavageSysteminSwitzerland............................... 26 2.3 TheContextualAspectofVoting....................................... 29 2.3.1 DefinitionofContextualEffect ................................ 31 2.3.2 Mechanism...................................................... 34 2.3.3 ModeratingInfluence........................................... 37 References..................................................................... 38 3 LongitudinalImpactofCleavages ......................................... 45 3.1 ConceptualisingtheImpactofCleavage............................... 46 3.2 TheoreticalEffectandEmpiricalEvidence............................ 47 3.2.1 ReligiousVotingBetweenDeclineandContentChange..... 47 3.2.2 AChanging,butStableClassVote? ........................... 55 3.2.3 TheClassicalRural-UrbanCleavageinDecline.............. 66 3.2.4 AStable,butModerateInfluenceofLanguage ............... 70 3.3 DataandMethod........................................................ 74 3.3.1 SwissElectoralStudies......................................... 74 3.3.2 Operationalisation .............................................. 75 3.3.3 LambdaIndex................................................... 81 3.4 CleavageStrengthOverTime .......................................... 84 3.4.1 TheDecliningbutPrevailingReligiousEffect................ 86 3.4.2 SocialClassinTransformationandwithaNewFacet........ 94 vii viii Contents 3.4.3 TheVanishedEffectoftheClassicalRural-Urban Cleavage......................................................... 101 3.4.4 LanguagewithaModestbutStableEffect.................... 104 3.5 Conclusion .............................................................. 108 References..................................................................... 113 4 ImpactAcrossParties ....................................................... 119 4.1 Party-SpecificVotingBehaviour ....................................... 120 4.2 DataandMethod........................................................ 123 4.3 DescriptiveStatisticsofIndividualPartyVote......................... 124 4.3.1 Religion ......................................................... 125 4.3.2 SocialClass ..................................................... 126 4.3.3 Rural-Urban..................................................... 127 4.3.4 NormativeVariables............................................ 129 4.4 NetEffectsofCleavageVoting......................................... 130 4.5 Conclusion .............................................................. 136 References..................................................................... 138 5 ContextualApproachofVoting ............................................ 139 5.1 CantonalDistributionofCleavageInfluence.......................... 140 5.2 CleavageVotinginThreeTypesofCantons........................... 145 5.2.1 ClusterAnalysis ................................................ 145 5.2.2 VotingPatternsinThreeClusters.............................. 149 5.3 Individual,ContextualandJointEffects............................... 155 5.3.1 TwoFacesofReligiousInfluence.............................. 155 5.3.2 SocialClassVotingDuetoEconomicInequalities ........... 158 5.3.3 UrbanisationanditsInfluenceonVotingPatterns ............ 160 5.4 DataandMethod........................................................ 163 5.5 EmpiricalFindings...................................................... 169 5.5.1 SeparateInfluenceofIndividualandContextualEffects ..... 169 5.5.2 Cross-LevelEffects............................................. 176 5.6 Conclusion .............................................................. 184 References..................................................................... 187 6 CombinedApproachinaLongitudinalandContextual Perspective.................................................................... 191 6.1 TheoryAboutHarmonisationofCleavageVoting .................... 194 6.2 DataandMethod........................................................ 198 6.2.1 TypologyofSwisscantons..................................... 198 6.2.2 LambdaComparisonAcrossClusters ......................... 200 6.3 Results................................................................... 203 6.4 Conclusion .............................................................. 213 References..................................................................... 216 Contents ix 7 GeneralConclusion.......................................................... 219 References..................................................................... 228 A Appendix...................................................................... 229 Acronyms AG Aargau(Argovia) AI AppenzellInnerrhoden(AppenzellInner-Rhodes) AR AppenzellAusserrhoden(AppenzellOuter-Rhodes) BDP Bürgerlich-DemokratischePartei(ConservativeDemocraticParty) BE Bern BfS BundesamtfürStatistik(FederalStatisticalOffice) BL Basel-Land(Basle-Country) BS Basel-Stadt(Basle-City) CSP Christlich-sozialePartei(ChristianSocialParty) CVP ChristlichdemokratischeVolkspartei(ChristianDemocraticPeople’sParty) EEA EuropeanEconomicArea EGP Erikson-Goldthorpe-Portocarero EU EuropeanUnion EVP EvangelischeVolkspartei(EvangelicalPeople’sParty) FDP Freisinnig-DemokratischePartei(FreeDemocraticParty) FR Fribourg GE Genève(Geneva) GfS GesellschaftfürpraktischeSozialforschung GL Glarus GLP GrünliberalePartei(GreenLiberalParty) GR Graubünden(Grisons) GP GrünePartei(GreenParty) ISCO InternationalStandardClassificationofOccupations JU Jura LPS LiberaleParteiderSchweiz(LiberalParty) LU Luzern(Lucerne) MCG MouvementCitoyensGenevois(GenevaCitizens’Movement) MCR MouvementCitoyensRomand(RomandieCitizens’Movement) NE Neuchâtel NW Nidwalden OW Obwalden xi
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