Przegl¹dStrategiczny2015,nr8 FikriALOGAIL DOI 10.14746/ps.2015.1.28 ArabCulturalAssociation,London THE HOUTHI MOVEMENT (ANSAR ALLAH) FACING THE COALITION FORCES What is after the fall of the government in the hands of the Houthi movement? WhereisYemenpossiblygoing?Thisarticletriestoanswerquestionsrelatedfutureof YemenaftertheHouthimovementtookoverpower.Thearticlewillshedlightonwhat took place in Yemen during and after the Youth Revolution of February 11, 2011 that wasagainsttheformerregimeofPresidentAliAbdullahSaleh;thearticleaddressesthe causesthatledtothefallofthestateinthehandsoftheHouthimovement(HM)fol- lowed by the coalition war that was called for by President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.1ThecoalitionisformedbytheGulfCorporationCouncil(GCC)andisbacked byothercountriesincludingtheWest.ThewaragainsttheHouthisisnamedDetermi- nation Storm. FromthebeginningoftheDeterminationStorm,theYemeniconflictisontwolev- els: political and military. The battles are still on the same pace from the time they started.Nooneofthefightingforcesisabletocontrolthebattle.Thecoalitionforces ledbySaudiArabiaareunabletochangethebattleonthegroundforthebenefitofthe forcessupportingPresidentHadi.Ithasnotbeenablesofartoachieveamilitarybal- ancethatwillallowHaditoreturntothecapitalSana’aorAden.Theachievementis limited to destroying the military infrastructure of Yemen. Ontheotherhand,theHouthimilitiasandtheforcesofSaleh(Houthi-Saleh)con- tinuetheirwaragainsttheYemenisindifferentcities:Aden,Taiz,Al-Dhale,Shabwa, Marib.ThebattleinMarebisstillopenbetweenHouthi-Salehforcesthetribalforces thattrytodefendthecity.Inadditiontoallthat,thecityofMukallafellunderthecon- trolofal-Qaida.2Thereisnovictoryinthiswarsofarasthewarsupporterswouldlike tosee.ItdoesnotseemintheYemeniscenethatpeaceandsafetyarelooming.Thissit- uationimpliesarealitythatisfullofchaosandthreatsofregionalwarwherethebattle- field is Yemen. ObserversoftheYemeniaffairnoticemuchofthepoliticalanalysesfocusonthere- sult.Theydidnotaskwhyithappenedandhoweventsacceleratedsoquicklytoendin awarthatmaythreatenaregionalwar.Whydidthishappen?Theanswertothisimpor- 1 ThelegitimatepresidentofYemen. 2 Al-QaidaannounceditsexistenceinNovember2014andclaimedresponsibilityfortheattacks onMarch20,2015thatledtothedeathsofmorethan140worshipersinZaydimosquesinSana’a. Al-Qadaexpands,especiallyinthesouth,takingadvantageofthecollapseofthestateandthesenti- mentagainstHouthis. 416 FikriALOGAIL tantquestionwouldgiveaclearvisionforthefutureandananswertothemostimpor- tant question: what will happen after this war? INTRODUCTION Following coming to power in 1978, Saleh involves active actors in power after strippingthemfromtheirarmedforces.Hetriestofindabalancebetweenthesepowers andthisledtotheformulationofacommonforumbrellaforall.Therewastheestab- lishmentof(GPC)in1982.Healsoworkedontheformulationofanationalcharter;the textsofitrejectaffiliationstoparties,religioussects,regionsandcallsforunity.The National Charter (almithaq alwatani) has been written in moderate Islamic language withoutmanydetails.WhentheIranianIslamicRevolutiontookplace,thenorthofYe- menwelcomedit.Butthisofficialwelcomingoftherevolutionchangedquicklywhen thewareruptedbetweenIranandIraq.YemenstoodwithandsupportedIraq.Thesup- porttoIraqagainstIranincludesmilitaryforces.TheYemeniPresidentAliAbdullah SalehisofthefewArableaderswhovisitedthebattlefieldsatthattime.Yemennotthe only one among the Arab countries who has this position but all Arab countries sup- portedIraq.ThisisbecauseIraqwasseenasthedefenderofArabnationalismandthe Gulffortheliberals.TheeyesofKhomeiniwerethenontheGulf.TheYemenisupport- ive position to Iraq continued until the end of the war in the late eighties. ThispositionofYemenisofcoursekeptinthememoryTwelverSectleadershipin Iran.Thissectdoesnotforgetthewrongsthattookplaceinhistory.Despitethatposi- tionYemendoesnotcuttieswithIran.Itdidnottakeanysecuritymeasuresagainstany practicesbytheIranianembassyinSana’aandthearrivalsfromTehran.Therewasnot anythingonthesurface;YementhoughtitwassafefromwhatisgoingonbetweenIran andIraq.ButinfacttherewereunderneathpreachingShiiteactivitiesduringtheeight- ies.ThisisconfirmedbytheYemeniDeputyPrimeMinisterforDefenseandSecurity Dr. Rashad al-Alimi. He said it in his speech before the parliament in June 2008. The first thoughtful move according to some observers began in 1982 by Salah AhmedFlutahwhoestablishedin1986YouthUnion.Partofwhatwastaughtasubject about the Iranian revolution and its principles. This is taught by Mohammed Badr Eddin al-Houthi. With the advent of the year 1990, a lot of events accelerated in the Middle East in favor of the Zaidis in Yemen, including: – Iraqi-Iranianwarstopped;thenthenegativeYemeniattitudetowardIranisremoved since Yemen stood with Iraq during that war; – thedeathofthehard-lineKhomeiniin1989andtheadventofthenewIranianPresi- dent Hashemi Rafsanjani who tried to lead Iran in his peaceful and friendly policy withtheMuslimworldnecessitatedthepoliticalchangeintheprincipleofexporting theIranianrevolution.Theexportofaviolentrevolutionchangedintosoftexportal- though the same effect if not worse; – thereunificationofYemenin1990producedanimportantbasisofthepoliticaland intellectualpluralism.Thispoliticalshiftallowstheestablishmentofpoliticalparties thatbenefitedZaidiactiviststobuildtieswithIranandtookadvantagetobuildtheir political agenda. TheHouthiMovement(AnsarAllah)FacingtheCoalitionForces 417 THEBEGINNINGOFTHEHOUTHIMOVEMENT –ORGANIZINGTHEYOUTHFEDERATION The group of Believing Youth, which was built on the remains of the group Youth FederationappearedwiththeYemeniunityandtheDeclarationofpoliticalpluralismin 1990.Itbeganitsactivitieswithmanysummerculturalcentersthatteachreligioussci- encesoftheZaididoctrineunderthesupervisionofanumberofZaidischolarsinthe provinceofSaada.ThiswaschairedbySheikhMohammedYahyaSalemAzzanatthat time.Thiswasareligiousandculturalforumthathasnothingtodowithmilitaryorpo- liticalaction.Thisisinaccordanceoftheestablishmentstatement.MohammedYahya Azzan–theformerSecretaryGeneraloftheBelievingYouth–says“thattheYouthFed- erationwasacultural,educationalandintellectualinstitutionconcernedwiththefor- mationofpersonalreligiousscholarsoftheyoungpeople.Theestablishmentwasfrom 1990to1994.Thiswasthestageofestablishingsowewereputtingamendmentstoev- erything:recruitingnewworkers,thinkingofstudyingnewthings,introducingnewac- tivitiesincludingnewideasandvisions.Thustheestablishmentphaselastedallthose years. Then the boom of the Youth Federation is from 1994 to 1996.” MohammedAzzansays,“thattheideaoftheBelievingYouthwasreligious:aforum for the young people to teach them some religious and intellectual classes. It was in- tendedtoeducatetheyoungpeopleandtogetthemoutofnarrow-mindednessandin- toleranceandthelikebutBrotherHusseinBadrEddinal-Houthiandadoptedanerror of a new approach” (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, 2007). In1996,asplitoriginatedwithintheBelievingYouthandaccordingtoMohammed Azzan:3 “the dispute was about the curriculum; this was in 1999. The difference in- creasedamongtheBelievingYouthandwekeptthatawayfromothers,fearingothersto make fun of us. We feared returning to the periods of bickering and exchanging of chargesagainstdoctrines.Wewanttoclingtowhatisleftofagreements.Afteradebate andnegotiationslastedforamonthinSana’a,wehadtoaccepttheamendmentsinthe BelievingYouth.Thisincludestheexpansionofactivitiesonthebasisthatthesummer centers are to be part of the activities and each year is to be led by a team.” MohammadAzzansaysin2002theslogansofHusseinBadrEddinal-Houthi(Deathto America,DeathtoIsrael)appeared.Littlebylittle,thefollowersofshowakindofexagger- atedreverencetothehandouts,4whichwerewrittenfromaudiotapesrecordings.Theideas werestrangeforthosewhoknowtheZaidithoughts.M.Azzanconfirmsthatafterknowing thattheBelievingYouthfoundalotthattheynotagreewith.Theymadeclarificationandat- tempts to stop or reduce this. They showed that these statements do not represent them. Theyexplainedtheydonotbeartheconsequences;thatwasnotonlytheirpositionbutthe position of other religious scientists. The trends began disputes over school districts in Saada.Thislasteduntilthefirstwarwiththegovernmentin2004(Al-Arabia.net,2007). 3 MohammedAzzanshowshimselfmoreindependentafterhisrefusaltoparticipatewiththeHo- uthis.HeannouncedhisindependencefromthemthoughheisoneoftheleadersoftheBelievingYo- uth.HewasremovedbytheHouthisbecauseheisnotfromalal-baytdescents;theHouthimedia attackhimrecently. 4 Lecturesorhandoutsthatarephotographedanddistributedtostudents. 418 FikriALOGAIL Husseinal-HouthiwasabletoleadtheBelievingYouthsinceheisseenasareligious leaderfromtheProphets’descents.UnderthepretextofworkingfortheZaidisectthat waskidnappedbytheWahhabism–asectspreadinginSaudi–accordingtoHouthis. HemanagedtoorganizeandsweeptheZaidiregionsthroughthereligiouslessonsthat wereculturalactivities.Littlebylittle,thisgroupbegantogaingroundintheZaidiar- eas: Saada, Al-Jawf, Amran, Sana’a, Dhamar and Hajjah. It was Hussein al-Houthi wholedarebellioninSaada5later(Al-ShareaqAl-Awasat,2007).Heknowswellhe willnotbeabletooverthrowthegovernmentinYemenatthisstage,especiallytheuni- fiedYementhatisgeographicallybig,knowingthatthefollowersoftheZaidisectrep- resents less proportion than it was before unification and as a result of a lot of Zaidi areasthatbecameSunnisduetodifferentreasons.Therefore,itseemstheHouthishave agoaltobuildastrongintellectualmovementondoctrinalandsectariangroundsthatis loyal to the sect to achieve a degree of cohesion among its followers. TheHouthiwasabletocreatesomeintellectualrelationshipwithIran,wherehestayed withhisfatherafterthewarof1994.SomesourcesindicatethatHusseinal-Houthireceived highqualificationinIranandotherArabstatesthathaveShiitepresenceforthesakeofcar- ryingoutthisroleonthebasisoftheinterestsforbothsides.TheHMfollowedthesame methodsfollowedbytheShiitegroupsthatarebackedbyIran;whereculturalwork,mili- tarytraining,mobilizationofsectarianextremismandcreatingasectarianhatredthatcriti- cizetheexistingsituationbutwithholdtotheprincipleofinjustice–thisistocreateakind ofanexplosivedevicereadytobeused.TheHouthibeganonthisbasisworkfromhislo- calityinSaadathathasthesectarianandtriballoyalty.Thenheexpandedtheinfluencein theareasthathavethesectarianbelief:Al-Jawf,Hajja,DhamarandSana’a. Itseemstherewerefromthegovernmentwhosoughttotakecareofthismovement tooperateandrunitsactivitiesunderasafeumbrella.Hereitmustbepointedoutthat the move of the Houthis towards authority has received broad support from the Hashemite families and from the Zaidi scholars and judges who are linked with the Zaididoctrinebothintermsofintellect,benefits,andsocialclass.Inspiteoftheirdenial ofthesupportinthebeginningbecausethestatestillretainssomeofitsstrengthbutthe situationchangedafter2011.Itbecameusualtoannouncethattheyareinonelinewith theHouthis.ThisisseeninmanyoftheinterviewsthatwereconductedbytheHouthi channel (Al-Masirah) in the streets during the sit-in camps before the fall of Sana’a. HOUTHIMOVEMENTANDITSRELATIONSHIPWITHIRAN ForthereadertounderstandtheHMdeeper,onefirsthastoknowthesocialcompo- nentofthismovementwhichistheYemenisociallayercalledtheHashemitefamily. 5 TheHouthilogicisbasedonsect.MohammedAzzanclaimedinadialoguewithAl-Shareaq Al-Awasatnewspaper,sayingthatHusseinHouthiwasalientoForum;hesaidthattheYoungForum wasestablishedonareligiousbasis.TheForumisestablishedinSaadaandmostofthepeoplefrom theZaidibackgroundbutwewere–andaccordingtoourdocuments–providinganopenvisionto others.Wemeetwithothersoragreewiththemwheretherearesharedconcepts.Therewasacampa- ignin1997and1998againstusfromZaidipeoplethatwemakeZaidisectSunni. TheHouthiMovement(AnsarAllah)FacingtheCoalitionForces 419 This family ruled parts of Yemen in different periods. The revolution of September 1962wasagainstitsrules.YemenwasmovedasaresultfromtheRoyaltotheRepubli- can system. Bylookingatthekingsandprincesofthisfamilyoverathousandyears,onecansee towhatextentthisfamily(theHashemite)hasadoptedforceandviolenceinextending itsinfluence.Becausethissociallayerhadlivedinanatmosphereofpowerandauthor- ityforalongperiodbeforetheestablishmentoftheRepublic,ithasequippeditselfdur- ing those periods – and later to a lesser extent – much of the social, political and economic privileges. This family felt after the September 1962 revolution that it has withdrawnthemtheprivilegestheyhadenjoyedbefore.Thegenerationsofthisfamily inheritedasenseofinjusticeandasenseofnotbeingloyaltytotheRepublic.Through therecenteventsinYemenandthesupportgiventotheHMfromthesefamilies(the Hashemite)inZaidiareas,wecansayforsurethattheywerethroughouttherepublican eralookingbacktotheroyalruling.Thisiswhatalreadyoccurredwiththeemergence oftheHM.ItwasnotunusualforthemajorityoftheHashemitefamilyintheZaidiar- eas(Saada,Al-Jawf,Amran,Sana’a,DhamarandHajjah)tojointhisnewmovement. Thissupportiseitherstraightforwardorthroughthelogisticsupportfrompoliticalin- stitutional sites here and there. ThesealonewerenottheelementsofpowerintheHM.Themovementhasbeen able to recruit the remnants of the Hashemite loyalty among some families and tribesintheZaidiareas;forthismostfightersofthismovementarefromtheseareas whodonothavequalificationsexceptcarryingguns.ItisfromthismixturetheHM was formed. Oneoftheelementsthathelpedthemovementtoachievestronglinkageswithtribes isthecharacteristicsthatthesetribeshave.ThemajorityoftheseareasbelongtoZaidi Doctrine.Thusthesectarianinterestmeetsthefamilyloyaltiestoformtheidentity(Doc- trineandTribe)oftheseareas.Theaffiliationofthemajorityoftheseareasiseitherreli- gious (being Hashemite) or supporters of the Hashemite. In these areas illiteracy and ignorancedominateandlessEducationinthoseareas.Theseareasareclosedandtheylit- tlemixwithothersduetodifficultgeographyorculturalcloseness.Thesemakethesear- eas till recently out of the authority of the country. These areas also lack modern constructionsandbasicservices(electricity,water,phones,andeducationalorhealthin- stitutions.Oftenpeopledependonagriculture,grazingortrade;thoseareasarealmostre- mote places. Ontheotherhand,manyoftheHashemiteZaidifamilieswereabletobejudgesand theyhaveaccesstohighpositionsinthegovernment;someministrieslikeEndowment and Justice were in their hands. This spread in the government institutions helped Houthisintheirwaragainstthegovernment.Thesewerelikethehiddensupportersfor the Houthis and part of the political agenda for them. InaletterbyBadrEddinal-HouthitoJawadal-Shahristani,thereiswhatrefers tothat.Thelettersays:“Wehavefullknowledgeofwhatgoesoninthecorridorsof therulingregimeduetothepresenceofsecurityagentsinpower;theseagentsare closetothemembersofthemovement.Weknowouropponentsofseniorofficials. Theydonotknowthatwehavefiveministersbetweensupportersandadvocatesof our movement. We have four of the governors of the followers who harbor evil of 420 FikriALOGAIL the unjust rules in broad daylight. They work to support Believing Youth without fear.”6 In addition to this the Houthis were able to gain the sympathy of people and win their love in areas suffering from poverty. They adopted charitable and humanitarian workintheseareasthatwereignoredbythegovernment.Thecharitableorganizations usuallydonotreachtheseareas.Theyusuallyarelimitedwiththeiractivitiestotheout- skirtsofmajorcities.Theypresentedareligiousspeechthattouchesthepeople’sneeds andaccordingtothesectarianvision.ThereforethelecturesofHusseinal-Houthicame mostly in simple colloquial dialect free of any complexity. AmongtheissuesadoptedbytheHMiswhatwassaidbyAbdul-Malikal-Houthi, thecurrentleaderofthemovement7wherehesaid:“HMisakindofpublicgroupsthat movepeacefullytoopposetheUS-IsraeliattackontheIslamicworldthroughthefa- mousslogan:DeathtoAmerica.DeathtoIsrael,CursetheJews,VictorytoIslam.They calltoboycottAmericanandIsraeligoodsandthedisseminationofQuranicculturein the face of ideological invasion. The movement is not a political party.” (Al-Akhbar, 2008).ThemobilizationagainstIsraelandAmericahasitsacceptanceinYemenitribal circlesthathaveemotionfortheArabandIslamicissues.TheHouthisloganislikeare- sponse to a sentiment in the hearts of the Yemenis in those areas who stood in many cases with the Muslim issues both east and west. The presence of weapons under the influence of the Zaidi areas helped to acquire weapons. One of the main arms markets in the area is in Saada (Al-Talh area). This givesthemovementtheabilitytosupplyandprovideammunitiontoitsfollowers.Itis knownalsothatarmsareavailableinmanynorthernprovinces;oftentribesacquiredif- ferent and varied weapons. Theincreaseofpeople’sdissatisfactionwiththerulingregimeandtheircomplaints openedthewayfortheHMtoputtheideaofalternativesforthegovernment:eitherto return to the Imamate – according to the letter of Badr Eddin al-Houthi to Jawad al-Shahristaniorthecoupagainsttheregime.Abdul-Malikhaspointedoutthatmost Yemenisagreeon“thetyrannyoftheregimeandthatitprovidedthepeoplewithonly ignorance,disease,waranddestruction,”andthatmostofthemunanimouslyagreeon theneedtochangethisreality.Thisisanimportantstepthatcouldbefollowedbyother steps(coordinationofpositionsandefforts,includingchangeofthetragicanddarkre- alityexperiencedbytheoppressedYemenipeople.“HealsoexpressedthatAliSaleh regime has no legitimacy. One asks does mean religious legitimacy; there is no reli- giouslegitimateforanyunjustrulers:whetherunderthenameofimam,president,king orprince.Iftheintendedlegitimacyreferstodemocracy,therehastobesomecoordina- tionbetweenpracticeofdemocracyandgovernance.Asforwhynotresorttoconstitu- tionalinstitutionsratherthantakeuparms?Wedidnotcarryarmsinordertoachieve certain ambitions; we are active culturally, socially, politically and through peaceful 6 LetterofBadrAldinal-HouthiToJawadal-Shahristanisentbeforeyearsandwaspublishedby severalMedia,e.g.SiteMaribPressin10/25/2008.Thoughthiswasnotdocumentedbutistheseissu- esareclosertoreality.Thedetailsofthedocumentedwerepublishedinbook(Al-Zaharwaal-Hajar, p.353–355).ItwasRe-publishedinabook(BawaeqRafidahtal-Yaman). 7 HetookovertheleadershipofthemovementafterthedeathofhisbrotherHusseinin2004. TheHouthiMovement(AnsarAllah)FacingtheCoalitionForces 421 means.Thegovernmentistheonethattookuparmsagainstusandtreateduswithvio- lence and without justification.” (Al-Akhbar, 2008). Tryingtosettheimamisseenasawaytofindreligiousauthority.Inthisway,the Houthisaretryingtocometothisendandthroughstages.HereHouthismeetwiththe Iranianrevolutioninthegoalofrestoringtheruleof(al-albaytorforthedescentsofthe Prophet); this is according to the letter of Badr Eddin to al-Shahristani. ThestrategypursuedbytheZaidiintheirquestforpoweristohavefaithinthepe- riodasapoliticalnecessity;theydonotabandonthisstrategy:progressofpretexts:po- liticalandmilitaryaction.Theirhistoryisfullofexamplesofthis;thefirstmottoisto calltheprincipalrulertoestablishAl-Shareaorjustice,beingthemainoneresponsible infrontofGodforapplyingjustice.Thisisfollowedbycalminginjusticesufferedas aresultofhisoppositiontothedarkness.Thisisfollowedbyseekingtolifttheinjustice onthevulnerable:combatingcorruptionandthecorrupt.Thisisallunderprovidingad- viceandfightinginjusticeandevil.ThiscanbeseenintheHMwherethefirstsloganis toestablishShareaandgetridofAmericandominanceandrejectingtheoneswhohave tieswithit;hereitreferstoSaleh(hereinSaleh).Afterthatthefirstwarthatwaswaged in2004,whichendedonlywiththedeathofthemovement’sleaderHusseinal-Houthi, themovementraisedthesloganofpoliticalandintellectualinjusticetothefollowersof theZaidisect.TheHouthiswereabletowithstandfiveotherwarsfoughtbytheYemeni armyagainstthemwiththesupportofmembersoftheIslahPartyandsometribes.This wentontill2011wherethepoliticalequationwaschanged.Thefriendsofyesterday’s enemiesbecametoday’sfriends.Therebellionswhowerelivinginthemountainsand cavesinSaadabecamepartnersintherevolutionagainsttheformerregime.Thatwas theumbrellaforallpartiesinthecountry.Thenewsloganforallwastooverthrowthe corrupt regime, including the Houthis. IthasbeenestimatedthattheHMfollowerswhowerebroughtupunderthisdoc- trineinaboutfifteenthousandpeople.ThisisaccordingtoseveralinterviewswithMo- hammedYahyaAzzan.Somefiguresincreasethenumbersintotwenty-fivethousand people.Theydonotdoubtthesefollowersassupportersofideas,loveandsympathyfor thestrategypursuedbytheZaidi8intheirquestforpoweristohavefaithintheperiod asapoliticalnecessity;theydonotabandonthisstrategy:progressofpretexts:political andmilitaryaction.Theirhistoryisfullofexamplesofthis;thefirstmottoistocallthe principalrulertoestablishal-Shareaorjustice,beingthemainoneresponsibleinfront ofGodforapplyingjustice.Thisisfollowedbycalminginjusticesufferedasaresultof his opposition to the darkness. This is followed by seeking to lift the injustice on the vulnerable: combating corruption and the corrupt. This is all under providing advice andfightinginjusticeandevil.ThiscanbeseenintheHMwherethefirstsloganisto establish Al-Sharea and get rid of American dominance and rejecting the ones who 8 ThepoliticalZaidiexperienceproducedthreetypesofrulers.First:theImamwhohasallthe conditions.Thesecondistheonewhodidnotmeetallconditionsofleadership.Thethirdtypeofru- lerscouldbecalledthepoliticalincubatorwheretheImamgrewup.TheImamleadershipinheritedby positionoftheImamatewithoutregardtothatlistofconditionssetbythetheoristsofthedoctrine. This appeared in the era of Qasmiyeh State or what some call the third Zaidi state (between the 16th–20thcenturies). 422 FikriALOGAIL havetieswithit;hereitreferstoSaleh.Afterthatthefirstwarthatwaswagedin2004, which ended only with the death of the movement’s leader Hussein al-Houthi, the movementraisedthesloganofpoliticalandintellectualinjusticetothefollowersofthe Zaidisect.TheHouthiswereabletowithstandfiveotherwarsfoughtbytheYemeni armyagainstthemwiththesupportofmembersoftheIslahPartyandsometribes.This wentontill2011wherethepoliticalequationwaschanged.Thefriendsofyesterday’s enemiesbecametoday’sfriends.Therebellionswhowerelivinginthemountainsand cavesinSaadabecamepartnersintherevolutionagainsttheformerregime.Thatwas theumbrellaforallpartiesinthecountry.Thenewsloganforallwastooverthrowthe corrupt regime, including the Houthis. The political performance of the Houthis demonstrates intelligence and wisdom; they raise slogans that stand with the demands of the people. They claim their reluc- tancetopower;theypresentedindependentcandidatesforthepresidencyofthegov- ernment. They selected competent and capable scientific and academic candidates, suchasProfessorAyoubAlHammadi.Thismayrefertothepotentialforcesthatstand behindtheirplanningandinternallyandexternalsupport.However,onthegroundthey extend their authority tough they declared their refusal to be part of the government. Theybecametheforceonthegroundimposedtheirauthoritybyforce.Theyareafter immediate and future gains and this is obvious to any observer. ThepopularityofHMincreasedbytheprominenceoftheLebaneseHezbollahin theArabmediainrecentyears.HezbollahappearedasaresistantIslamicpartythough itisaShiiteparty.OrdinarycitizensinYemenaccepttheideaofHezbollah’sresistance andvictory.Thisisinatimewhenthenationneedsaglimmeroflighttofeelproudover itsenemies.WhathappenedinIraq,whereShiitesareenabledandbecameadominant forcethatcontrolsthereinsofpowerunderoccupationisdeemedfortheShiiteregion asthehopetheywouldliketoachieveinthecountriesinwhichtheyhavearelativeand aninfluentialpresence.IranalsopresentsitselfasastrongstateandasdefenderofIs- lamintheconfrontationoftheWestandIsrael.IranstoodwiththePalestinians.Thisis when countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt abandon this role. They even appear as conspiratorsagainstjihadistmovementsinPalestineandLebanon.Thisisinadditionto thetendencyoftheShiitestoshowtowardsSunniswhattheydonotreallythinkabout them–thisispartofbeliefcalledTaqwa–akindofhypocrisytowardstheSunnisby calling for living with these communities but working to subdue them. TheseeventsprovidedgroundfortheShiitepreachingintheregionandmarketing theseideologiesintheSunnicountries;theaimisrevivingthedreamoftheShiiteCres- cent.Previousscientificandresearcheffortshavewarnedagainstthis.Iranstandsfully behindthisbecauseofitsimpactonitsnationalagendaandplanofexpansioninthere- gion,whichhaslongbeendreamedofsincetherevolution.Yemenwasthetargetwithin reach since it has the Shiite presence that has chances of being able to have power. The close relation between the Shiite in Iran and the Houthis does not represent amajorthreattotheintellectualZaidis.Theintereststhatmeetdonotnecessarilyentail abandoning old beliefs, especially among Shiite communities. They understand each otherhistoricalandideologicalspecificities.Ontheotherhand,thewelayat-efaqihit- selfisabreakthroughinthethoughtoftheImamate;itisarevolutioninthetheoryof waitingfortheexpectedMahdi.Atthesametime,itrepresentsaconvergencewiththe TheHouthiMovement(AnsarAllah)FacingtheCoalitionForces 423 theoryoftherulingsystemwiththeZaidis.BothseethejuristorIslamicscholarasthe onewhohastherightofthehighestauthorityinthestate.Welayat-efaqihhasbeenlik- enedwiththeTwelverFaqihortheguardianwiththeZaidithoughts.Thisiswithasig- nificant of time difference where the Zaidis have this idea in more than a thousand years.What’swrongthenfortheHouthisfromtryingapoliticalexperiencethathasits ancientrootsintheZaidithought?Assumingitisanewexperience,theinnovativearea offreedomwiththeZaidiscouldacceptthiskindofreligiousgovernmentwithinthere- publicansystem.ThereisnodoubtthatIranthathaseightymillionpeopleandfourmil- lionbarrelsofoiladaymakesallShiitessectsintheworldtrytobealliedwithsuch arichcountryeveniftheyprovideabitofconcessionstopleaseIran,beingtheonly country in which the Islamic government is Shiite. Yemen’s interior minister has talked about Iran’s support for the Houthis, saying: “IrandevoteditsofficialmedialikeTehranradio,Al-Alamchanneltosupportthere- belsinSaada.”HepointedoutthatthepreviousactingIranianagentwaskeentogoto Mecca to perform Umrah – he performed Umrah dozens of times; he goes by land throughSaada.ThisistoprovidematerialsupporttotheHouthis.TheIranianambassa- dortoSana’ainsistedrepeatedlytogotoUmrahthroughHajjahwherethereisagroup belongingtotheHouthi;buttheSaudiembassyinSana’arefusedtogivehimUmrah visabylandandgivehimanoptiontogobyairtogototheholyland.Headdedthatthe IranianofficialssaytheyarewiththeYemeniunityandagainstsabotage;butrealityis different.TheinteriorministerurgestheofficialpositioninIrantobeclearonwhatis happeninginSaada,pointingoutthat,asasecuritypersonheknowsthatIranianintelli- gencehasamajorroleinmobilizingandrecordingdemonstrationsinthestreetsofTeh- raninfrontoftheYemeniEmbassytoshowtheirsympathyandsupportfortheHouthi rebels against the Yemeni government (Eylaph, 2007). The same accusation repeated by the former Yemeni Foreign Minister, Abu Bakr al-Qirbiwhosaid:“IhavealreadyannouncedthepresenceofsomeconnectiontoIran andLibyaonwhatishappeninginSaada.TheDeputyPrimeMinisterandtheInterior MinisterexplainedthattheIraniansupportofembracingtheYemenireligiousleaders intheirinstitutions.Thisisinadditiontothepromotionofterroristactsthroughtheoffi- cialmedia;thisisincompatiblewiththeIranianofficialconfirmationthatIraniswith Yemen’sunityandstability.ThisistocalluponbrothersinIrantotranslatethisconcern intopractice.WithregardtoLibya9(Al-Arabia,2007),wewelcometheirclearposition and its condemnation of the rebellion in Saada. We requested the funds provided for someYemenifigurestobegivenfordevelopmentinYemen;thisisthemosteffective andbeneficialwayforthetwocountriesandtheircommoninterest.”10(GeneralPeo- ple’s Congress, 2007; Okaz, 2007). It is no secret that the HM is an Iranian arm in the region, like the Lebanese Hezbollah.TheIranianleadershavebecomeoutspokenaboutthisfactwherethereisno 9 Al-Qirbiindicatedinastatementdatedon15/5/2007thattheMPYahyaal-HouthiisinLibya. Hostingal-HouthitheregivessufficientevidenceoftheinvolvementofLibyaanditssupportforthe Houthis.LibyarefusedtohandhimovertoYemenwhendemandedthroughtheInterpoltocross-qu- estionhimonsecuritymattersconcerninghisrelationshipwithSaadarebellion. 10 GeneralPeople’sCongressNet(in03/06/2007,quotedfromOkaz(aSaudiArabianewspaper). 424 FikriALOGAIL needforconfirmation.TheMovementalsorecentlybenefitedfromawaveofhostility announcedbysomeneighboringcountriesoftheMuslimBrotherhoodandoftheArab Spring, A number of regimes and political parties found in Houthis a weapon to overthrowthepowerfulMuslimBrotherhood.ThustheHMhasbenefitedfromso- cial, historical, sectarian factors as well as from the existing regional and interna- tional conditions. It also did not miss out to take advantage of the weaknesses in the government. ItisexpectedthatthepoliticalfutureoftheHouthiswillnotbemuchdifferentfrom theLebaneseHezbollah;HouthishavebeenpreparedinadvanceforthisroleinYemen. TheytooktheirweaponsagainstthecapitalSana’aandothercitiesandtheywillnotac- cepttobedisarmedinthefuture.Theyarelikelynottoabandontheirweapons;they will maintain them and use them as a pressure for their political moves. THEROLEOFTHERULINGREGIMEINMAKINGTHEHOUTHI MOVEMENT SincethevictoryofSaleh’sregimein1994waragainstthesouthernpartner,thefor- merpresidentdecidedtothinkofpassingpowertohiseldersonAhmed.Salehiswell awareofthesizeoftheobstaclesthatstandinfrontofthisambition.Hedecidedtore- movetheobstaclesinathoughtfulway.Hebeganwiththeinternalobstacles:First:the leadersofthemilitaryregionsarepartnersinpower,wealthandregime.Second:thein- fluentialfamilies,particularlyal-Ahmar,HashedtribeSheikhs.Third:thestrongoppo- sition parties, particularly the Islah. Itisimpossibleforthesethreepartiestoacceptthepassingpowerfromfathertoson andtheyarecapableofpreventingit.Oncethewarendedin1994,Salehbeganworking ontheimplementationofthisagendaindifferentways.Thebeginningwaswithfour leadersofthemilitaryareaswhoareconsideredthepillarsoftheregime.Twoofthem wereeliminatedinahelicopteraccident,whilethethirdwasremovedfromhisjob.The fourthisthemostintellectual–MajorGeneralAliMohsen–hadanimportantrolein theeventsoftherevolutionin2011.11AliMohsenisthecommanderoftheFirstBri- gade. There were several attempts to remove from the scene but they all failed. Atthesametime,theformerpresidentwasactivelyengagedtoarrangeforeignfiles to solve the problems, which may constitute an inevitable obstacle before passing powertotheson.OnthetopofthesefilesistheborderwithSaudiArabia,Oman,and Eritrea. He succeeded in settling these files and closed them in a manner deemed by 11 AliMohsenthegeneralcommanderofthefirstArmoredBrigaderejectedtobepartoftheregi- meafterthemassacreonFriday18/03/2011(than70oftheyouthrevolutiondied).Heannouncedhis supportfortheYouthRevolutionandthathewouldprotectthem.Hisarmyspreadintheareaandsur- roundsYouthRevolution,protectingthem.Sana’awasdividedintotwoparts:onewithSaleh(contro- lledbytheRepublicanGuardandCentralSecurityforcesandtheotherwiththeYouthRevolution, controlledbyAliMohsen).AliMohsen,apillarofSalehsystem,wascalculatinginhispositionwith theYouthRevolution.Forthis,theYouthRevolutionisstolenfromfourforces:thejointparties,esp. Islahparty,themilitarycommanderAliMoshen,aswellasreligiousandtriballeaders,esp.Hashed tribeandfamilyofAl-Ahmar.
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