The High Cost of Low Educational Performance [elektronische middelen] : the long-run economic impact of improving PISA outcomes

2010·2 MB·English

by  Hanushek, Eric A. (Eric Alan), 1943-

The High Cost
of Low Educational
Performance
THELONG-RUNECONOMICIMPACT
OFIMPROVINGPISAOUTCOMES
OECD

The High Cost of Low
Educational Performance
THELONG-RUNECONOMICIMPACT
OFIMPROVINGPISAOUTCOMES
ProgrammeforInternationalStudentAssessment
«•
OECD
Copyrightedr
ORGANISATIONFORECONOMICCO-OPERATION
ANDDEVELOPMENT
TheOECDisauniqueforumwherethegovernmentsof30democraciesworktogetherto
addresstheeconomic,socialandenvironmentalchallengesofglobalisation.TheOECDisalso
attheforefrontofeffortstounderstandandtohelpgovernmentsrespondtonewdevelopments
andconcerns,suchascorporategovernance,theinformationeconomyandthechallengesofan
ageingpopulation.TheOrganisationprovidesasettingwheregovernmentscancomparepolicy
experiences,seekanswerstocommonproblems,identifygoodpracticeandworktoco-ordinate
domesticandinternationalpolicies.
TheOECDmembercountriesare:Australia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,theCzechRepublic,
Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Italy,Japan,Korea,
Luxembourg,Mexico,theNetherlands,NewZealand,Norway,Poland,Portugal,theSlovak
Republic,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Turkey,theUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates.The
CommissionoftheEuropeanCommunitiestakespartintheworkoftheOECD.
OECDPublishingdisseminateswidelytheresultsoftheOrganisation’sstatisticsgathering
andresearchoneconomic,socialandenvironmentalissues,aswellastheconventions,guidelines
andstandardsagreedbyitsmembers.
ThisworkispublishedontheresponsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECD.The
opinionsexpressedandargumentsemployedhereindonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficial
viewsoftheOrganisationorofthegovernmentsofitsmembercountries.
ISBN978-92-64-07748-5(PDF)
Photocredits:Cover©JackHollingsworth/Photodisc/GettyImages.
CorrigendatoOECDpublicationsmaybefoundonlineat:www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda.
APlIlSAus™e,oOfEOCEDC/DPItSrAa™deamnadrktsheisPpIrSoAhilboigtoedarweitthroaudtempaerrkmsisosfiothnefOrrogmantihseaOtEioCnD.forEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD).
©OECD2010
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atin/[email protected]’exploitationdudroitdecopie(CFC)[email protected].
Foreword
fIonrreEscpoonnosmeitcotChoe-onpeeerdatfioroncraosnsd-nDaetivoenlaolplymeconmtp(aOraEbClDe)elvaiudnecnhceedonthsetuOdEenCtDpePrrfoorgmraanmcmee,tfhoerOIrngtaernniastaitoinoanl
StudentAssessment(PISA)in1997.PISArepresentsacommitmentbygovernmentstomonitortheoutcomes
ofeducationsystemsintermsofstudentachievementonaregularbasisandwithinaninternationally
agreedcommonframework.Itaimstoprovideanewbasisforpolicydialogueandforcollaborationin
definingandimplementingeducationalgoals,ininnovativewaysthatreflectjudgementsabouttheskills
thatarerelevanttoadultlife.
Resultsofthethree-yearlyPISAsurveysrevealwidedifferencesintheperformanceofeducation
systemsintermsofthelearningoutcomesachievedbystudents.Forsomecountries,theresultsfrom
PISAaredisappointing,showingthattheir15-year-olds'performancelagsconsiderablybehindthatof
othercountries,sometimesbytheequivalentofseveralyearsofschoolingandsometimesdespitehigh
investmentsineducation.However,PISAalsoshowsthatothercountriesareverysuccessfulinachieving
strongandequitablelearningoutcomes.Moreover,somecountrieshavebeenabletosignificantly
improvetheirlearningoutcomes,inthecaseofPolandbyalmostthree-quartersofaschoolyearbetween
2000and2006alone.
Thisreportusesrecenteconomicmodellingtorelatecognitiveskills-asmeasuredbyPISAandother
internationalinstruments-toeconomicgrowth.Therelationshipindicatesthatrelativelysmallimprovements
intheskillsofanation'slabourforcecanhaveverylargeimpactsonfuturewell-being.Moreover,thegains,
putintermsofcurrentGrossDomesticProduct(GDP),faroutstripthevalueoftheshort-runbusiness-cycle
management.Thisisnottosaythateffortsshouldnotbedirectedatissuesofeconomicrecession,butitis
tosaythatthelong-runissuesshouldnotbeneglected.
ThereportwaswrittenbyProf.Eric.A.HanushekfromtheHooverInstitutionatStanfordUniversityand
CESifoandbyProf.LudgerWoessmannfromtheIfoInstituteforEconomicResearch,CESifo,andthe
UniversityofMunich,inconsultationwithmembersofthePISAGoverningBoardaswellasAndreas
Schleicher,RomainDuvalandMaciejJakubowskifromtheOECDSecretariat.Thereportwasproduced
bytheIndicatorsandAnalysisDivisionoftheOECDDirectorateforEducationandispublishedonthe
responsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECD.
TheHighCostofLowEducationalPerformance©OECP2010

4671
Table ofcontents
Foreword 3
Executivesummary 5
Introduction 6
Theeffectofeducationoneconomicgrowth 1
Empiricalgrowthanalysesusingschoolattainmentdata 13
Empiricalgrowthanalysesconsideringcognitiveskills 13
Measuringcognitiveskills 1
Basicfactsofcognitiveskillsandeconomicgrowth 1
Evidenceoncausality 1
Theeconomiccostsofloweducationalachievement 20
Simulationapproach 20
ScenarioI:Increaseaverageperformanceby25PISApoints 22
ScenarioII:BringeachcountrytotheaveragelevelofFinland 24
ScenarioIII:Bringeveryoneuptoaminimumskilllevelof400PISApoints 25
Policyconclusions 27
References 29
Notes 31
AnnexA:Derivingacombinedhistoricalmeasureofcognitiveskills 35
AnnexB:l/nderlyingcross-countrygrowthregressions 45
AnnexGProjectionoftheeconomicvalueofeducationreforms 49
NotestoAnnexes 52
TheHighCostofLowEducationalPerformance©OECP2010
Executive summary
Whilemanynationsexpressacommitmenttoimprovededucationalquality,educationoftenslipsdownon
thepolicyagenda.Becausethebenefitsofeducationalinvestmentsareseenonlyinthefuture,itispossible
tounderestimatethevalueandtheimportanceofimprovements.
Thisreportusesrecenteconomicmodellingtorelatecognitiveskills-asmeasuredbyPISAandother
internationalinstruments-toeconomicgrowth.Thisrelationshipindicatesthatrelativelysmallimprovements
intheskillsofanation'slabourforcecanhaveverylargeimpactsonfuturewell-being.Moreover,thegains,
putintermsofcurrentGDP,faroutstriptoday'svalueoftheshort-runbusiness-cyclemanagement.Thisis
nottosaythateffortsshouldnotbedirectedatissuesofeconomicrecession,butitistosaythatthelong-run
issuesshouldnotbeneglected.
AmodestgoalofhavingallOECDcountriesboosttheiraveragePISAscoresby25pointsoverthenext
20years-whichislessthanthemostrapidlyimprovingeducationsystemintheOECD,Poland,achieved
between2000and2006alone impliesanaggregategainofOECDGDPofUSD115trillionoverthe
lifetimeofthegenerationbornin2010(asevaluatedatthestartofreformintermsofrealpresentvalueof
futureimprovementsinGDP)(Figure1).BringingallcountriesuptotheaverageperformanceofFinland,
OECD'sbestperformingeducationsysteminPISA,wouldresultingainsintheorderofUSD260trillion
(Figure4).Thereportalsoshowsthatitisthequalityoflearningoutcomes,notthelengthofschooling,
whichmakesthedifference.Otheraggressivegoals,suchasbringingallstudentstoalevelofminimal
proficiencyfortheOECD(i.e.reachingaPISAscoreof400),wouldimplyaggregateGDPincreasesofclose
toUSD200trillionaccordingtohistoricalgrowthrelationships(Figure2).
Figure1
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©OECP2010TheHighCostofLowEducationalPerformance
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
Figure2
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Note:DiscountedvalueoffutureincreasesinGDPuntil2090duetoreformsthatimprovestudentperformanceineachcountryto
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Figure3
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Note:DiscountedvalueoffutureincreasesinGDPuntil2090duetoareformthatimprovesstudentperformanceineachcountry
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7
TheHighCostofLowEducationalPerformance©OECP2010
EXCECUTIVESUMMARY
Figure4
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Figure5
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©OECP2010TheHighCostofLowEducationalPerformance