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The Handbook of Commodity Investing (Frank J. Fabozzi Series) PDF

1011 Pages·2008·10.1 MB·English
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The Handbook of Commodity Investing FRANK J. FABOZZI ¨ ROLAND FUSS DIETER G. KAISER John Wiley & Sons, Inc. The Handbook of Commodity Investing TheFrankJ.FabozziSeries FixedIncomeSecurities,SecondEditionbyFrankJ.Fabozzi FocusonValue:ACorporateandInvestorGuidetoWealthCreationbyJamesL.Grantand JamesA.Abate HandbookofGlobalFixedIncomeCalculationsbyDragomirKrgin ManagingaCorporateBondPortfoliobyLelandE.CrabbeandFrankJ.Fabozzi RealOptionsandOption-EmbeddedSecuritiesbyWilliamT.Moore CapitalBudgeting:TheoryandPracticebyPamelaP.PetersonandFrankJ.Fabozzi TheExchange-TradedFundsManualbyGaryL.Gastineau ProfessionalPerspectivesonFixedIncomePortfolioManagement,Volume3editedbyFrankJ. Fabozzi InvestinginEmergingFixedIncomeMarketseditedbyFrankJ.FabozziandEfstathiaPilarinu HandbookofAlternativeAssetsbyMarkJ.P.Anson TheGlobalMoneyMarketsbyFrankJ.Fabozzi,StevenV.Mann,andMooradChoudhry TheHandbookofFinancialInstrumentseditedbyFrankJ.Fabozzi CollateralizedDebtObligations:StructuresandAnalysisbyLaurieS.GoodmanandFrankJ. Fabozzi InterestRate,TermStructure,andValuationModelingeditedbyFrankJ.Fabozzi InvestmentPerformanceMeasurementbyBruceJ.Feibel TheHandbookofEquityStyleManagementeditedbyT.DanielCogginandFrankJ.Fabozzi TheTheoryandPracticeofInvestmentManagementeditedbyFrankJ.FabozziandHarryM. Markowitz FoundationsofEconomicValueAdded:SecondEditionbyJamesL.Grant Financial Management and Analysis: Second Edition by Frank J. Fabozzi and Pamela P. Peterson MeasuringandControllingInterestRateandCreditRisk:SecondEditionbyFrankJ. Fabozzi,StevenV.Mann,andMooradChoudhry ProfessionalPerspectivesonFixedIncomePortfolioManagement,Volume4editedbyFrankJ. Fabozzi TheHandbookofEuropeanFixedIncomeSecuritieseditedbyFrankJ.FabozziandMoorad Choudhry TheHandbookof European StructuredFinancialProducts editedbyFrankJ. Fabozzi and MooradChoudhry TheMathematicsofFinancialModelingandInvestmentManagementbySergioM.Focardi andFrankJ.Fabozzi ShortSelling:Strategies,Risks,andRewardseditedbyFrankJ.Fabozzi TheRealEstateInvestmentHandbookbyG.TimothyHaightandDanielSinger MarketNeutralStrategieseditedbyBruceI.JacobsandKennethN.Levy SecuritiesFinance:SecuritiesLendingandRepurchaseAgreementseditedbyFrankJ.Fabozzi andStevenV.Mann Fat-TailedandSkewedAssetReturnDistributionsbySvetlozarT.Rachev,ChristianMenn, andFrankJ.Fabozzi FinancialModelingoftheEquityMarket:FromCAPMtoCointegrationbyFrankJ.Fabozzi, SergioM.Focardi,andPetterN.Kolm AdvancedBondPortfolioManagement:BestPracticesinModelingandStrategieseditedby FrankJ.Fabozzi,LionelMartellini,andPhilippePriaulet AnalysisofFinancialStatements,SecondEditionbyPamelaP.PetersonandFrankJ.Fabozzi CollateralizedDebtObligations:StructuresandAnalysis,SecondEditionbyDouglasJ.Lucas, LaurieS.Goodman,andFrankJ.Fabozzi HandbookofAlternativeAssets,SecondEditionbyMarkJ.P.Anson Introduction to Structured Finance by Frank J. Fabozzi, Henry A. Davis, and Moorad Choudhry FinancialEconometricsbySvetlozarT.Rachev,StefanMittnik,FrankJ.Fabozzi,SergioM. Focardi,andTeoJasic The Handbook of Commodity Investing FRANK J. FABOZZI ¨ ROLAND FUSS DIETER G. KAISER John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright#2008byJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.Allrightsreserved. PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey. PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedin anyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanning,or otherwise,exceptaspermittedunderSection107or108ofthe1976UnitedStatesCopyright Act,withouteitherthepriorwrittenpermissionofthePublisher,orauthorizationthrough paymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeetotheCopyrightClearanceCenter,Inc.,222 RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,(978)750–8400,fax(978)646–8600,orontheWeb atwww.copyright.com.RequeststothePublisherforpermissionshouldbeaddressedtothe PermissionsDepartment,JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030, (201)748–6011,fax(201)748–6008,oronlineathttp://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthorhaveusedtheirbest effortsinpreparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswithrespecttothe accuracyorcompletenessofthecontentsofthisbookandspecificallydisclaimanyimplied warrantiesofmerchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.Nowarrantymaybecreated orextendedbysalesrepresentativesorwrittensalesmaterials.Theadviceandstrategies containedhereinmaynotbesuitableforyoursituation.Youshouldconsultwitha professionalwhereappropriate.Neitherthepublishernorauthorshallbeliableforanylossof profitoranyothercommercialdamages,includingbutnotlimitedtospecial,incidental, consequential,orotherdamages. Forgeneralinformationonourotherproductsandservicesorfortechnicalsupport,please contactourCustomerCareDepartmentwithintheUnitedStatesat(800)762–2974,outside theUnitedStatesat(317)572–3993orfax(317)572–4002. Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsin printmaynotbeavailableinelectronicformats.FormoreinformationaboutWileyproducts, visitourWebsiteatwww.wiley.com. ISBN-13978-0-470-11764-4 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Contents Foreword xi Preface xv AbouttheEditors xix ContributingAuthors xxi PARTONE MechanicsoftheCommodityMarket 1 CHAPTER 1 A Primer on Commodity Investing 3 Frank J. Fabozzi, Roland Fu¨ss, and Dieter G. Kaiser CHAPTER 2 The Pricing and Economics of Commodity Futures 38 Mark J. P. Anson CHAPTER 3 Commodity Futures Investments: A Review of Strategic Motivations and Tactical Opportunities 56 Joshua D. Woodard CHAPTER 4 Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Futures Returns 87 Zeno Adams, Roland Fu¨ss, and Dieter G. Kaiser v vi CONTENTS CHAPTER 5 The Relationship Between Risk Premium and Convenience Yield Models 113 Viola Markert and Heinz Zimmermann CHAPTER 6 The Optimal Rotation Period of Renewable Resources: Theoretical Evidence from the Timber Sector 145 Dr. Fritz Helmedag PARTTWO PerformanceMeasurement 167 CHAPTER 7 Review of Commodity Futures Performance Benchmarks 169 Roland Fu¨ss, Christian Hoppe, and Dieter G. Kaiser CHAPTER 8 Performance Characteristics of Commodity Futures 203 Claude Erb, Campbell R. Harvey, and Christian Kempe CHAPTER 9 Statistical Analysis of Commodity Futures Returns 227 Reinhold Hafner and Maria Heiden CHAPTER 10 The Diversification Benefits of Commodity Futures Indexes: A Mean-Variance Spanning Test 241 Bernd Scherer and Li He CHAPTER 11 CTA/Managed Futures Strategy Benchmarks: Performance and Review 266 Thomas Schneeweis, Raj Gupta, and Jason Remillard Contents vii PARTTHREE RiskManagement 311 CHAPTER 12 Some Thoughts on Risk Management for Commodity Portfolios 313 Jeffrey M. Christian CHAPTER 13 Effective Risk Management Strategies for Commodity Portfolios 322 Moazzam Khoja CHAPTER 14 Quantifying Cross-Commodity Risk in Portfolios of Futures Contracts 335 Ted Kury CHAPTER 15 Incorporating Futures in Commodity Price Forecasts 358 Chakriya Bowman and Aasim M. Husain PARTFOUR AssetAllocation 389 CHAPTER 16 Commodity Trading Strategies: Examples of Trading Rules and Signals from the CTA Sector 391 Franc¸ois-Serge Lhabitant CHAPTER 17 How to Design a Commodity Futures Trading Program 406 Hilary Till and Joseph Eagleeye CHAPTER 18 Sources of Alpha in Commodity Investing 423 Markus Mezger

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