The Green Industrial Revolution: Energy, Engineering and Economics PDF
Preview The Green Industrial Revolution: Energy, Engineering and Economics
THE GREEN INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION THE GREEN INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION Energy, Engineering and Economics BY WOODROW W. CLARK II GRANT COOKE AMSTERDAM (cid:129) BOSTON (cid:129) HEIDELBERG (cid:129) LONDON NEW YORK (cid:129) OXFORD (cid:129) PARIS (cid:129) SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO (cid:129) SINGAPORE (cid:129) SYDNEY (cid:129) TOKYO Butterworth-Heinemann is an imprint of Elsevier AcquiringEditor:KennethP.McCombs EditorialProjectManager:ChelseaJohnston ProjectManager:PreethySimon Designer:MariaIneˆsCruz ButterworthHeinemannisanimprintofElsevier TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,OxfordOX51GB,UK 225WymanStreet,Waltham,MA02451,USA Copyright©2015ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved. 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Practitionersandresearchersmustalwaysrelyontheirownexperienceandknowledgein evaluatingandusinganyinformationormethodsdescribedherein.Inusingsuchinformation ormethodstheyshouldbemindfuloftheirownsafetyandthesafetyofothers,including partiesforwhomtheyhaveaprofessionalresponsibility. Tothefullestextentofthelaw,neitherthePublishernortheauthors,contributors,oreditors, assumeanyliabilityforanyinjuryand/ordamagetopersonsorpropertyasamatterof productsliability,negligenceorotherwise,orfromanyuseoroperationofanymethods, products,instructions,orideascontainedinthematerialherein. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Applicationsubmitted BritishLibraryCataloguing-in-PublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN:978-0-12-802314-3 ForinformationonallButterworth–Heinemannpublications visitourwebsiteathttp://store.elsevier.com DEDICATION This book is dedicated to Woody’s wife, Andrea Kune-Clark and Grant’s children and grandchildren. The Green Industrial Revolution will have a far greater, and beneficial, impact on their lives than anything we can imagine. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS In 2013, the world pumped 36 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air, adding to atmospheric and environmental degradation that has continued sincetheFirstIndustrialRevolution.Wearereachingatippingpointwith ourfragileplanet,andhowtheworldresponds,ordoesnotrespond,tocli- mate change will have an unprecedented impact on the course of human history. The changes that will be made to mitigate global warming and equally disastrous environmental changes will create unimaginable social, eco- nomic,andpoliticalchange.Withalmost7billionpeoplenowonthisfragile planet,thesandsoftimearemarkingourexistenceifwecontinuetousethe environment and atmosphere as garbage cans. Fortunately,thereisagrowingtrendtowardamoresustainableandenvi- ronmentally sensitive way of life. This trend is being accelerated by new wondrous technologies that make renewable, carbonless energy a viable replacement for the fossil fuel energy generation of the twentieth century. In examining and explaining these developments, which offer hope to our damaged planet, Clark and Cooke called upon international scholars and experts. Our goal was to provide the reader with a perspective that was global for we quickly realized that the United States was far behind the rest of the world in entering what we call the Green Industrial Revolution. Therearemanytobethankedforhelpingtheauthorsintheirlabors.Ken McCombs, the senior editor at Elsevier’s Science and Technology Books committed to the project early, pushed the authors and others into a com- prehensive examination of the topic. We are very grateful for Ken’s hard workandeffortsonourbehalfandfuturegenerations.Weallhavefamilies thatwillbeimpactedbytheGreenIndustrialRevolution.Andweallwant that sooner than later. Wearealsogratefultothemanyscholars,practitioners,business,govern- ment, and experts that contributed the case studies that are found in the Appendix.Whileweknewthatothersbesideourselvessawtheemergence oftheGreenIndustrialRevolution,wewereamazedattheinterestshown by those wanting to contribute to our project. There are many other scholars, academics, and scientists whose work influenced our writings. We have done our best to note their opinions vii viii Acknowledgments andgivecreditwherecreditisdue.Wewanttoparticularlyacknowledgefor his insights as to how history’s primary industrial phases evolved, Al Gore and his team, along with the hundreds of scientists who have contributed to the United Nations committees and teams, and the thousands of others whoseworkonclimatechangehasbeguntomakeadifferencebycreating the Green Industrial Revolution. Without their credible work, climate change would not be such a significant concern. Whileintelligence,experience,andinsightcanhelpintheprescientrec- ognitionofamegatrendliketheGreenIndustrialRevolution,hardworkis what captures the transformative ideas and hones them into a creative and multi-disciplinary coherent viable plans (technologies, public policies and economics) for a carbon free future around the world. This hard work is impossible without the support of family, and the authors would like to thank their respective wives, Andrea Kune-Clark andSusanCooke,fortheirforbearanceandpatienceastimeandtheresearch went on as the manuscript came together. INTRODUCTION Climatechangeisreal,andweareallimpactedbyit.Greenhousegasesfrom carbon emissions cover our planet, forcing drastic changes in weather pat- ternsthatcreatedestructivesuperstormsneverbeforewitnessedorexperi- enced.Decadesoffailingtocurbtheworld’sdependencyonfossilfuelshave made the planet hotter and more polluted. It has killed people and stolen theirlivelihoods.Theworld’spoorestnationsarethemostvulnerableasthey face increased risk of drought, crop failure, poverty, and disease. Coastal cities and island nations are at the highest risk and the planet’s foodproductionfacesincreasingcomplications(seeCase#12inAppendix about Mauritius Island). Deserts and dry regions are becoming dryer, and wetregionswetter.Manypartsoftheplanet,likethetropics,areexperienc- ing heat waves and tropical super cyclones and the irreversible loss of bio- diversity. Coral reefs that surround and protect vast miles of islands and coastal beaches are dying. A hotter planet threatens to roll back decades of sustainable growth, and the science is clear. AmajorUSproblemisrealestatedevelopmentsincebuildingsgenerate large amounts of greenhouse gases. Case #17 in the Appendix provides an overview of this issue from an individual’s perspective. Scientific reports and national and international security and military resourcesallconcludethathumansarethecauseofclimatechange.Oceans are warming, sea levels are rising, and the global mean temperature is increasing. Recent predictions are that global mean temperature will rise more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit in less than three decades. Melting Arctic and Antarctic ice caps will cause rising ocean tides and swells resulting in more global damage and loss of lives. Thisgrimrealityofaplanetinenvironmentalcrisismaybethelegacyof the world’s most prosperous and careless era (see Case #10 in Appendix about the human costs). The extraordinary wealth of the last century has been supercharged by fossil fuels that were, and still are, indiscriminately burnedfor cheapenergy, while their emissions create asuffocating blanket forouratmosphere.Thetragedyisthatthefossilfuelindustrywassupported withlandgrantsandmassiverailsystemstotransporttheircoal,oil,nuclear waste, and natural gas. A century later, this industry, which is history’s wealthiest, still receives massive US tax subsidies. xv xvi INTRODUCTION IT STARTED WITH INDUSTRY TheFirstIndustrialRevolutionwasaturningpointinhumanhistory.Great Britain led that eighteenth century revolution in machine-based manufacturing. The Age of Enlightenment offered powerful ideas and pushed art,literature, science, and democracyinto new frontiers. Powered bycoal,Watt’ssteamenginedrovetextileandmanufacturingindustriesthat were the envy of the world. TheSecondIndustrialRevolutionsawthetremendouspowerandflex- ibilityoffossilfueledinternalcombustionengines.Theinternalcombustion engine, along with the commercialization of oil, created a previously unimaginable world of machines and personal transportation. Thomas Edison with his electricity and then Alexander Graham Bell with the tele- phonerevolutionizedthedailylivesofordinarypeopleandledtotelecom- munication centers, huge data server farms, and complex electrical networks, all of which required vast amounts of energy. The Green Industrial Revolution started to emerge at the end of the twentieth century. Initially proclaimed as occurring in northern Europe, it actually had started and took hold in Asia. Japan led the way in the 1970s with its TOTO Corporation, which created technologies and systems to control and save water. Then at the beginning of the twenty-first century, China leapfrogged into this new Green Industrial Revolution driven by unprecedented economic growth, urbanization, and infrastructure needs. TheGreenIndustrialRevolutionisafarmoresignificantandlifechang- ingthaneitherofthepreviousindustrialperiods,forthereissomuchmoreat stake. While the planet has been getting hotter and smokier, the world has beengettingmorecrowded.Eachday,preciousresourcesgetscarcer.Today thereare7billionpeoplelivingontheplanet,andby2053,theUNpredicts thattherewillbe10 billionpeople(seeCase#6inAppendixontheseand other changes). Compounding the problem is the rise of a middle class in developing nations.Peopleinemergingnationswanttogetoutofpoverty.Theywant the things that developed nations have—nice clothes, nutritious food (including animal protein for their children), and large, air-conditioned, electrifiedhomes as wellas education andafuture for themselvesandtheir children.Theyalsowantthethingsthatmostcitizensofdevelopednations take for granted: washing machines, cell phones, refrigerators, televisions, and cars (see Case #5 in Appendix about micro-cities in India). INTRODUCTION xvii Additup,andtheworldwillsoonberesource-constricted,particularly sincetheplanetisrunningoutoffossilfuels.Thisalonethreatenstoshakethe veryfoundationofourexistenceandfutureforourchildrenandgrandchil- dren.Buttheenvironmentaldegradationandthecollapseofvariouspartsof ourplanet’secosystemareaddingaheightenedurgency.Theplanetcannot delay halting this degradation and exploitation. THE SOLUTION FROM COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGIES Itisadangeroustime—apointatwhichglobalwarmingandenvironmental degradationmaybecomeirreversible.Criticaldecisionsmustbemadeona globallevelforthegoodoftheplanet.Itisalsoanageofopportunity,andthe Green Industrial Revolution with its renewable energy and storage system technologies can provide those opportunities and solutions. A new era of sustainability and carbonless energy generation is at our doorstep.Apushforrenewableenergyandacarbonlesslifestylewillbecome history’s largest social and economic megatrend, with the potential of extraordinarybenefitsintheformofeconomicrevival,innovation,emerg- ing technologies, and significant job growth for those nations capable of fast entry. Countries around the world are starting to realize the need to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy generation. Denmark has been one of the leaders (see Case #13 in Appendix). Most of the European Union nationshaveenvironmentalandrenewableenergypoliciesthatmovethem aggressivelyintotheGIR.SeeCase#11intheAppendix,whichhighlights ItalyandotherEUnations.Poland(Case#2inAppendix)andSerbia(Case #14 in Appendix) are doing just that along with other central and east EU nations. Developing nations like Brazil, Chile, and Thailand are adding renewable energy wisely. Island countries like England, Singapore, and Mauritius(Case#12inAppendix)areaddingmorecarbonlessenergygen- erationtotheireconomies.Moreandmorenationsareslowlyrealizingthat theirfuturesarenotrootedincarbon-basedfuelsandtheyarefindingbetter solutions. Thesesolutionsaretakingtheformofremarkablyinnovativetechnolo- gies that are exponentially more stunning, numerous, and revolutionary. Toyota led the way with its Prius hybrid car that used regenerative brakes to create and then store energy. Now Toyota is the number one car com- pany in the world. The same pattern is seen with inventions that emerged xviii INTRODUCTION from previous industrial periods. Amazing technologies—from tiny nano- crystalsto200mphtrainspropelledbymagneticforce—arebeingdesigned by scientists and engineers who are changing human history. We look at emerginggreentechnologiesthatwillprovideasenseofwhatcanbedone in the face of truly monumental societal, financial, and policy challenges. Thegeniusofmechanicalengineersandinventorsisshowcasedintech- nologieslikeScotland’sPelamis,anoffshorewaveenergyconverterthatuses the energy of ocean waves to generate electricity. Equally innovative is a Davis, California company’s Fast Ox, a refrigerator-size blast furnace that can create energy out of organic waste or junk like old IPods. To store renewable energy, innovative ideas like the Cash-Back Cars, whichusesplugged-incarsforstorage,areonthehorizon.Newadaptations and uses for old technologies like flywheels and technologically advanced batteries like the one Tesla Motors developed are part of the storage solu- tions. Hydrogen fuel cells for storage and power is another major break- through and will quickly become a reality when California launches its hydrogen highway in 2016. Technologies that share power like smart grid systems are moving towardthemainstream.Chinahasdeployedover250millionsmartmeters and created a new grid city to showcase its science. AtthefoundationoftheGreenIndustrialRevolutionaresustainableand green communities. Singapore and China have launched the Tianjin Eco- Cityasamodelforasustainableeco-city.WestVillageinnorthernCalifor- nia is the largest Net Zero Energy community in the United States and a model for future residential construction (see the Report as Case #15 in Appendix). Aalborg, Denmark, was probably the first modern community to focus on sustainable growth, and it continues as a model for northern European cities. Many of these new technologies need to move more quickly from the laboratory into the mainstream. When we talk about huge infrastructure changeslikereplacingcoalwithrenewablegeneration,therearetremendous costs.Itiscleartousthatthe2008worldfinancialmeltdownsignaledanend to the free-market, modern economic theory that served the world during thetwentiethcentury.Thissupply-side,deregulated,free-marketeconom- ics worked well in the last part of the twentieth century, but this form of neo-classical economics will not be able to address the problems of a twenty-first century world that is threatened by irreversible environmental degradation.Case#1andthenCase#16intheAppendixdemonstratehow economics has changed around the world to a new economic paradigm.
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