The Great Power Triangle

204 Pages·1982·18.062 MB·English

by  Dr Gerald Segal (auth.)

The Great
Power Triangle
GERALD SEGAL
THE GREAT POWER TRIANGLE
Such contemporary terms as the 'great power triangle' or 'playing the
China card' have their origins in the international politics of the last
twenty years. This book analyzes the first phase of the triangular
politics between China and the superpowers in the 1960s in an
attempt to understand the present-day three-way relationship. The
author has obtained a large number of previously classified American
documents from the period and they illustrate not merely the internal
American debates on China and the strategic triangle, but also the
foreign policy of the other two powers. It is a study of the growing
influence of China in the strategic balance, of Moscow's uncertainty
in balancing the demands of Peking and Washington, and of the
American debates on the best policy towards the Sino-Soviet split.
Dr Gerald Segal is Lecturer in Politics at the University of Leicester.
By the same author
THE CHINA FACTOR (editor)
SOVIET STRATEGY (co-editor with John Bay/is)
THE GREAT
POWER TRIANGLE
Gerald Segal
M
MACMILLAN
PRESS
© Gerald Segal 1982
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1982
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission
of this publication may be made without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied
or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance
with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended).
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to
this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and
civil claims for damages.
First edition 1982
Reprinted 1986
Published by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LID
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG212XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
ISBN 978-1-349-06061-0 ISBN 978-1-349-06059-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-06059-7
To my father
Contents
Acknowledgements ix
Abbreviations x
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Definitions 4
2. LAOS, 1961-2 9
2.1 The 1961 crisis 9
2.1. 1 The background 9
2.1.2 Pre-crisis manoeuvres: January to mid-March 1961 12
2.1.3 The crisis and fading bipolarity: mid-March to
May 1961 15
2.2 Geneva: negotiations and nascent tripolarity 20
2.3 The 1962 crisis 27
2.3.1 The great power system in flux: changing
perceptions in Washington 27
2.3.2 Pre-crisis manoeuvres: January-April 1962 34
2.3.3 The crisis: blindfolded at the brink in May 1962 36
2.4 Conclusions 42
3. AUTUMN 1962: THE GREAT DIVIDE 45
3.1 The Sino-Indian war 45
3.1.1 Pre-crisis 46
3.1.2 Crisis, phase I: the Himalayas in the pale of the
Caribbean 49
3.1.3 Crisis, phase 11: USSR and US deterrence 55
3.1.4 Post crisis I: The US-USSR alignment and the
new meaning of non-alignment 60
3.1.5 Post crisis 11: the changing environment 63
3.2 Great power perceptions; the climactic period 65
3.2.1 Changing perceptions of the Sino-Soviet split:
the view from Washington 65
3.2.2 Peking and Moscow: image and self-image 72
3.3 Conclusions 77
viii Contents
4. THE VIETNAM WAR, 1963-8 79
4.1 The evolution ofthe war: January-March 1965 80
4.1.1 The air war and the USSR: January-February
1965 80
4.1.2 US escalation and 'united action': March 1965 87
4.2 Process and decision: April-December 1965 90
4.2.1 Stabilization ofthe air war: April-May 1965 91
4.2.2 'United action' 95
4.2.3 The system stabilizes 98
4.3 The system stabilizes: January-August 1966 102
4.3.1 Tripolarity and the USSR's position 102
4.3.2 The last US-PRC crisis: May-August 1966 106
4.4 The routinization of the war: September 1966-
~ce~cr1~ ~
4.4.1 Negotiations and the war: September 1966-July
1967 108
4.5 Conclusions 117
5. NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND ARMS CONTROL 121
5.1 The Chinese test: anticipation and reaction 122
5.1.1 Nascent tripolarity in anticipation of the Chinese
test 123
5.1.2 Shock waves in the wake of the Chinese test 125
5.2 Strain and stalemate: NPT and ABM, February
1965-September 1966 128
5.2.1 ABM: the Chinese connection 131
5.3 October 1966-Spring 1967 133
5.4 China and the US-USSR arms spiral: June-
December 1967 135
5.5 The nonproliferation treaty, 1968 141
5.6 Conclusions 145
6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 147
6.1 Stability 148
6.2 The pivot 149
6.3 Crisis management 152
6.4 Deterrence 153
Notes and References 157
Index 189
Acknowledgements
While some may suggest that the intellectual origins for a study of the
great power triangle can be traced to the author being the eldest of
three children, the reality is more prosaic. The greatest debt is owed
to Ellis Joffe of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem for encourage
ment, the first break and, above all, friendship. The book began as a
PhD at the London School of Economics and Political Science and a
debt is owed to my two supervisors, Geoffrey Stern and Michael
Yahuda. Michael's efforts in particular, both in this and in subse
quent work on China, are deeply appreciated. Thanks are also due to
the library staff at the John F. Kennedy Library (Boston, Mass.), the
British Museum (Official Publication Library), Andrew Bowman and
especially Barb, who took away my soapbox.
G.S.
Abbreviations
ABM Anti-ballistic Missile
ACDA Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (US)
CCP Chinese Communist Party
CDSP Current Digest of the Soviet Press
CINCPAC Commander in Chief, Pacific (US)
CPSU Communist Party of the Soviet Union
DRV Democratic Republic of Vietnam
ENDC Eighteen Nation Disarmament Commission
ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
ICC International Control Commission
INR (Bureau) of Intelligence and Research (US)
JCS Joint Chiefs of Staff (US)
JFKL John F. Kennedy Library
MLF Multi-lateral Force
MRBM Medium-range Ballistic Missile
NCNA New China News Agency
NLHX Neo Lao Hak Xat
NPT Nonproliferation Treaty
NSC National Security Council (US)
NSF National Security Files (US)
NSAM National Security Action Memoranda (US)
OPLAN Operations Plan (US)
PLA People's Liberation Army (PRC)
POF President's Office Files
PPC Policy Planning Committee (US)
SVNLF South Vietnam National Liberation Front
UNGA United Nations General Assembly
UNSC United Nations Security Council