The Gower Handbook of Extreme Risk: Assessment, Perception and Management of Extreme Events

207 Pages·2017·4.288 MB·English

by  Vicki Bier

Risk in Extreme Environments
Risk in Extreme Environments presents a wide-ranging discussion of approaches for assessing
and managing extreme risks. Extreme events are not only severe, but also outside the
normal range of experience of the system in question, and can include environmental
catastrophe; engineering failure; and nuclear or other extreme terrorism. The book
focuses on synthesizing research results in a way that provides insights useful to decision
makers, and enables them to ask probing questions about the risks faced by their
organizations, identify creative solutions, and minimize the neglect of extreme risks that
can come from an excessive focus on mundane or ordinary management challenges.
The book includes case studies on nuclear power, infectious diseases, and global
catastrophic risks. The chapter authors include experts in economics, engineering,
geography, law, political science, psychology, sociology, and science in addition to risk
analysis.
Risk in Extreme Environments is an accessible and valuable resource for risk managers and
other decision makers responsible for complex business and government decisions, while
also providing enough detail and references to be informative for risk analysts interested
in learning more about technical aspects of the various methods.
Vicki Bier, PhD, is a Professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering
at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. She has written a number of papers on extreme
risk, and is a coauthor or editor of four books in addition to this one.
“Risk, extremes, and the steps toward synthesizing and managing them are fundamental
challenges that society faces. This book captures these important themes comprehensively,
effectively framing them for decision-makers. Bier draws upon her longstanding
reputation in these fields and has assembled an exemplary set of international experts from
multiple sectors and disciplines to address these critical areas. Together these contributions
act as a foundation for advancing risk-based dimensions of decision-making that
uniquely draw together diverse perspectives. The triangular relationships among science,
organizations and public perceptions are evident in this work. Extending beyond theory,
these elements are applied to a rich and enduring set of cases of extremes that reflect the
range of decisions that risk managers face.”—Rae Zimmerman, PhD, Professor of
Planning and Public Administration, New York University—Wagner Graduate
School of Public Service
Risk in Extreme Environments
Preparing, Avoiding, Mitigating,
and Managing
Edited by Vicki Bier
First published 2018
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2018 selection and editorial matter, Vicki Bier; individual chapters, the
contributors
The right of Vicki Bier to be identified as the author of the editorial material, and
of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with
sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised
in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or
hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information
storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered
trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to
infringe.
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Bier, Vicki, editor.
Title: Risk in extreme environments : preparing, avoiding, mitigating and
managing / edited by Vicki Bier.
Description: Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2018. | Includes
bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2017023725 (print) | LCCN 2017037780 (ebook) | ISBN
9781315557540 (eBook) | ISBN 9781472439901 (hardback : alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Risk management. | Disasters. | Accidents--Prevention. |
Emergency management. | Risk--Sociological aspects.
Classification: LCC HD61 (ebook) | LCC HD61 .R56875 2018 (print) | DDC
658.15/5--dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017023725
ISBN: 978-1-472-43990-1 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-315-55754-0 (ebk)
Typeset in Bembo
by Saxon Graphics Ltd, Derby
Contents
List of illustrations vii
About the editor viii
Notes on contributors ix
Introduction 1
VICKI BIER
PART 1
Assessing the risks of extreme events 7
1 Probabilistic risk analysis 9
LOUIS ANTHONY COX JR. AND VICKI BIER
2 The meaning of black swans 33
TERJE AVEN
PART 2
Managing the risks of extreme events 49
3 “As if their lives depended on it”: high performance in extreme
environments 51
RON WESTRUM
4 Decision making on trial: the extreme situation at
Fukushima Dai Ichi 65
SÉBASTIEN TRAVADEL, CHRISTOPHE MARTIN, AND FRANCK GUARNIERI
5 Prevention versus response: application in the management of
disease 81
AMY HAGERMAN, BRUCE McCARL, AKLESSO EGBENDEWE-MONDZOZO,
AND LEVAN ELBAKIDZE
vi Contents
6 The feasibility and value of adaptive strategies for extreme risks 92
ROBERT GOBLE
PART 3
Perceptions of extreme risks 109
7 It won’t happen to me: the behavioral impact of extreme risks 111
EYAL ERT AND IDO EREV
8 Social amplification of risk and extreme events 129
ROGER E. KASPERSON
PART 4
Case studies of extreme risks 145
9 Safety and severe accidents in nuclear reactors 147
MICHAEL CORRADINI AND VICKI BIER
10 Mitigating extreme infectious disease disaster risk 162
TERRENCE M. O’SULLIVAN
11 Global catastrophes: the most extreme risks 174
SETH D. BAUM AND ANTHONY M. BARRETT
Index 185
Illustrations
Figures
1.1 “What should we do next?” 11
1.2 Frequency of fatalities due to natural events 18
2.1 Three different types of black swans in a risk context 37
2.2 A risk matrix, based on specified consequences and probabilities, which
incorporates the strength of knowledge 42
3.1 How organizations process information 60
5.1 Event probability and decision-making stages 85
5.2 Conceptual balance model 86
7.1 Problems BE1 and BE2 studied by Barron and Erev (2003) 113
7.2 Proportion of choices in Option R (P(R)) in 10 blocks of 40 trials in
Problems Similar EV (SEV) and Distinct EV (DEV) 120
7.3 Proportion of choices in Option R in 10 blocks of 40 trials in Problems
Base, ADEV (absolute difference in EV), and RDEV (relative difference
in EV) 121
7.4 Proportion of workers who followed three safety rules before and
during the “gentle COP” intervention 124
8.1 Detailed conceptual framework of social amplification of risk 131
8.2 Risk amplification and stigmatization 136
9.1a PWR large dry containment 155
9.1b PWR ice-condenser containment 155
9.2 BWR containments 155
9.3 Conceptual picture of fuel rod meltdown 156
9.4 Conceptual picture of molten pool formation 157
9.5a Molten core slump/pour 157
9.5b TMI-2 end-state configuration 157
Tables
1.1 Selected asymptotic distributions and bounds from probability theory 23
1.2 Sample cause table for failure of reactor trip 24
7.1 Summary of experimental studies that demonstrate overestimation of
small probabilities and overweighting of rare events 112
7.2 The instructions and interface of a study that uses the basic clicking
paradigm with partial feedback 113
About the editor
Vicki Bier, PhD, holds a joint appointment as Professor in the Department of Industrial
and Systems Engineering and the Department of Engineering Physics at the University of
Wisconsin-Madison, where she served as chair of the Department of Industrial and
Systems Engineering for more than five years. She has directed the Center for Human
Performance and Risk Analysis (formerly the Center for Human Performance in Complex
Systems) since 1995. She has more than 30 years of experience in risk analysis for the
nuclear power, chemical, petrochemical, and aerospace industries, as well as homeland
security and critical infrastructure protection. Before joining academia, she spent seven
years as a consultant at Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc. While there, her clients included
the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.S. Department of Energy, and a number
of nuclear utilities, and she prepared testimony for Atomic Safety and Licensing Board
hearings on the safety of the Indian Point nuclear power plants.
Dr. Bier’s current research focuses on applications of risk analysis and related methods
to problems of security and critical infrastructure protection. Her research has been
supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the National Science
Foundation, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the Idaho National Laboratory, the
Midwest Regional University Transportation Center, the Wisconsin Department of
Health and Family Services, and the Wisconsin Office of Justice Assistance. She has also
been a special-term appointee for the Risk and Infrastructure Science Center at Argonne
National Laboratory, and a special government employee for the Environmental
Protection Agency.
Dr. Bier received the Women’s Achievement Award from the American Nuclear
Society in 1993, and was elected a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis in 1996, from
which she received the Distinguished Achievement Award in 2007. She is a past president
of the Decision Analysis Society, from which she received the Frank P. Ramsey Medal
in 2016. She has written a number of papers and book chapters related to the risk of
extreme events, and is a coauthor or editor of four books in addition to this one. She
served as engineering editor for Risk Analysis from 1997 through 2001, and has served as
a councilor of the Society for Risk Analysis. Dr. Bier has also served as a member of both
the Radiation Advisory Committee and the Homeland Security Advisory Committee of
the Environmental Protection Agency’s Science Advisory Board.
Contributors
Terje Aven has been Professor in Risk Analysis and Risk Management at the University
of Stavanger, Norway, since 1992. He is a Principal Researcher at the International
Research Institute of Stavanger (IRIS). He is Editor-in-Chief of Journal of Risk and
Reliability. He is an Associated Editor of Journal of Applied Probability on Reliability Theory,
an Area Editor of Risk Analysis on Policy and Europe Editor of the International Journal of
Performability Engineering. He is currently the Chairman of the European Safety and
Reliability Association (ESRA) and President-Elect of Society for Risk Analysis (SRA).
He was a Director of Gassco AS 2013–2016. Previously he was also Adjunct Professor in
Risk and Reliability Analysis at the University of Oslo and the Norwegian University of
Science and Technology. He has many years of experience as a risk analyst and consultant
in industry. He is the author of many books and papers in the field, covering both
fundamental issues as well as practical risk analysis methods. He has led several large
research projects in the area of risk, with strong international participation.
Anthony M. Barrett is Director of Research of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute,
which he cofounded in 2011. Barrett is also Senior Risk Analyst with ABS Consulting
in Arlington, Virginia. His research interests include risk analysis, risk management,
and public policies in a wide variety of areas, including nuclear warfare, emerging
technologies, natural hazards, and terrorism. Barrett holds a PhD in Engineering and
Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon University and a B.S. in Chemical Engineering
from the University of California, San Diego. He was also an ASME/AAAS fellow to
the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), a postdoctoral research associate
at the Homeland Security Center for Risk & Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events
(CREATE) at the University of Southern California, and a Stanton Nuclear Security
Fellow at the RAND Corporation in Arlington, Virginia.
Seth D. Baum is Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, a nonprofit
think tank that Baum cofounded in 2011. His research focuses on risk and policy analysis
of catastrophes, such as global warming, nuclear war, and future artificial intelligence.
Baum received an M.S. in Electrical Engineering from Northeastern University and a
PhD in Geography from Pennsylvania State University. He then completed a postdoctoral
fellowship with the Columbia University Center for Research on Environmental
Decisions. In addition to his scholarly work, he writes frequently for popular media and
is a featured columnist for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Michael Corradini is Wisconsin Distinguished Professor of Nuclear Engineering and
Engineering Physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He has published widely