The Global Political Economy of Raúl Prebisch The Global Political Economy of Raúl Prebisch offers an original analysis of global political economy by examining it through the ideas, agency and influence of one of its most important thinkers, leaders and personalities. Prebisch’s ground-break- ing ideas as an economist – the terms-of-trade thesis and the economic case for state-led industrialization – changed the world and guided economic policy across the global South. As the head of two UN bodies – the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and later the United Nations Con- ference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) – he was at the frontline of key North–South political struggles for a fairer global distribution of wealth and the regulation of transnational corporations. Prebisch increasingly came to view political power, not just economic capabil- ities, as pivotal to shaping the institutions and rules of the world economy. This book contextualizes his ideas, exploring how they were used and their relevance to contemporary issues. The neoliberal turn in economics in North America, West- ern Europe and across the global South led to an active discrediting of Prebisch’s theories and this volume offers an important corrective, reintroducing current and future generations of scholars and students to this important body of work and allowing a richer understanding of past and ongoing political struggles. Matias E. Margulis is Lecturer in Political Economy at the University of S tirling, UK. A former Canadian delegate to the WTO, OECD and United Nations agencies, his research focuses on global governance, international trade and human rights. Recent publications include ‘Canada at the G8 and UN Committee on World Food Security: forum-shifting in global food security governance’ (Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, 2015), ‘Trading Out of the Global Food Crisis? The WTO and the Geopolitics of Food Security’ (Geopolitics, 2014) and Land Grabbing and Global Governance (2014, edited with Nora McKeon and Saturnino Borras, Jr.). RIPE Series in Global Political Economy Series Editors: James Brassett (University of Warwick, UK), Eleni Tsingou (Copen- hagen Business School, Denmark), Susanne Soederberg (Queen’s University, Canada) and Jacqueline Best (University of Ottawa, Canada) The RIPE Series published by Routledge is an essential forum for cutting-edge scholarship in International Political Economy. The series brings together new and established scholars working in critical, cultural and constructivist political economy. Books in the RIPE Series typically combine an innovative contribution to theoretical debates with rigorous empirical analysis. The RIPE Series seeks to cultivate: • Field-defining theoretical advances in International Political Economy • Novel treatments of key issue areas, both historical and contemporary, such as global finance, trade, and production • Analyses that explore the political economic dimensions of relatively neglected topics, such as the environment, gender relations and migration • Accessible work that will inspire advanced undergraduates and graduate students in International Political Economy. The RIPE Series in Global Political Economy aims to address the needs of stu- dents and teachers. For a full list of titles in this series, please visit www.routledge.com/RIPE- Series-in-Global-Political-Economy/book-series/RIPE Culture, Political Economy and Civilization in a Multipolar World Order The Case of Russia Ray Silvius Gendered States of Punishment and Welfare Feminist Political Economy, Primitive Accumulation and the Law Adrienne Roberts Corporate Human Rights Violations Global Prospects for Legal Action Stéfanie Khoury and David Whyte The Global Political Economy of Raúl Prebisch Edited by Matias E. Margulis Critical Methods in Political and Cultural Economy Johnna Montgomerie The Global Political Economy of Raúl Prebisch Edited by Matias E. Margulis First published 2017 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2017 selection and editorial matter, Matias E. Margulis; individual chapters, the contributors The right of Matias E. Margulis to be identified as the author of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Names: Margulis, Matias, editor. Title: The global political economy of Raúl Prebisch / edited by Matias Margulis. Description: Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2017. | Series: RIPE series in global political economy | Includes b ibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2016043500| ISBN 9781138219779 (hardback) | ISBN 9781315414614 (e-book) Subjects: LCSH: Prebisch, Raúl. | Development economics. | Economic development. | International economic relations. Classification: LCC HD75.P72 G56 2017 | DDC 337.01--dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016043500 ISBN: 978-1-138-21977-9 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-41461-4 (ebk) Typeset in Times New Roman by Sunrise Setting Ltd, Paignton, UK Contents List of figures vii List of tables viii Notes on contributors ix Foreword xiii Acknowledgements xvi List of abbreviations xvii Introduction: the global political economy of Raúl Prebisch 1 MATIAS E. MARGULIS PART I Prebisch as architect and theorist of the global political economy 25 1 Development through tighter economic integration: how might Prebisch size up some trends and issues thus far into the twenty-first century? 27 P. SAI-WING HO 2 Thinking big from the periphery: Raúl Prebisch and the world system 45 ANDRÉS RIVAROLA PUNTIGLIANO 3 Raúl Prebisch and the theory of regional economic integration 61 JOSÉ BRICEÑO RUIZ 4 The Latin American origins of Bretton Woods 78 ERIC HELLEINER vi Contents PART II Power and resistance in the global political economy 95 5 Raúl Prebisch and the historical roots of the current movement against corporate-led globalisation 97 ROBIN BROAD AND ZAHARA HECKSCHER 6 From Palais de Nations to Centre William Rappard: Raúl Prebisch and UNCTAD as sources of ideas in the GATT/WTO 116 ERIN HANNAH AND JAMES SCOTT 7 The West remains on top, economically and politically 135 ROBERT H. WADE PART III Diagnosing structural change in the global political economy 153 8 A changing role for agriculture in global political economy? Brazil’s emergence as an agro-power 155 KRISTEN HOPEWELL 9 Back to the future reloaded: Latin America’s development strategy during the commodity boom 172 ESTEBAN PÉREZ CALDENTEY AND MATÍAS VERNENGO 10 Raúl Prebisch and the terms of trade: how things have changed… 194 RAPHAEL KAPLINSKY AND MASUMA FAROOKI Index 215 Figures 0.1 All Commodity Price Index, 2005=100, includes both fuel and non-fuel price indices 11 6.1 Frequency of uses of the term ‘policy space’ in TDRs 124 6.2 Percentage of ministerial statements using the term ‘policy space’ 124 6.3 Percentage of WTO minutes including the term ‘policy space’ 125 9.1 Latin America, financial balances as percentage of GDP 1990–2014 176 9.2 Five-year rolling correlation coefficient between goods exports in real terms and the terms of trade 1985–2006 177 9.3 Discrete change in the terms-of-trade indices between 2003–7 and 1990–2000 179 9.4 Latin America, export composition by technological content 1980–2012 (percentage of total) 180 9.5 Export share of petroleum products and natural gas in total leading export products (percentages), 2002–5 (averages) 181 9.6 Latin America, net unilateral transfers 1980–2013 (US$ millions) 182 9.7 Latin America, current account with transfers and adjusted for transfers 1990–2013 (US$ billions) 183 10.1 IMF Commodity Price Index, January 1992–June 2015 (2005=100) 197 10.2 Which way forward for commodity prices? Reversion to long-term trend (price spike), supercycle or structural break 198 10.3 Copper cost changes 2003–13 202 10.4 World manufacturing export price 1986–2000 206 10.5 Percentage of sectors which experienced falling prices in EU imports between 1988–9 and 2001 206 10.6 Market-led linkage development and the effect of policy 209 10.7 Recent changes in the terms of trade 211 Tables 9.1 GDP per capita growth rates for Latin America and the Caribbean 1963–2013 175 9.2 Average annual growth of commodity indices 1980–2013 178 9.3 Latin America, net resource transfer 1980–2006 (in percentage of GDP) 184 9.4 Latin America (countries that experienced favourable terms-of-trade effects), current account adjusted for remittances and contributions of remittance to narrow the external gap 1990–2013 188 9.5 Latin America (countries that experienced unfavourable terms-of-trade effects), current account adjusted for remittances and contribution of remittances to narr ow the external gap 1990–2013 189 10.1 China’s percentage share of global production and consumption of hard commodities (1990–2009) 199 Contributors José Briceño Ruiz is Associate Professor in the Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences at the University of the Andes, Mérida, Venezuela. He holds a PhD in Political Science from the Institut d’Etudes Polítiques d’Aix-en-Provence (Science Po Aix). His research areas of expertise include Latin American regionalism, comparative regionalism, international political economy and foreign policy. He has been a visiting scholar at Stockholm University, Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo, Universidad de Sonora (México), the University of São Paulo and the University of Buenos Aires. He has edited several books on Latin American regionalism, including The Resilience of Regionalism in Latin American and the Caribbean. Autonomy and Development (2013), co-edited with Andrés Rivarola Puntigliano. Robin Broad is Professor of International Development at the School of International Service, American University in Washington, DC, USA. She teaches courses on economic globalization and development as well as environment and development, with a focus on social, environmental, and economic accountability. Her books include Development Redefined: How the Market Met Its Match (2009), co-authored with her husband and frequent collaborator John Cavanagh, which follows the rise of the Washington Consensus and its failure as a model for economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable development. Dr Broad is also the editor/author of Global Backlash: Citizen Initiatives for a Just World Economy (2002), which combines her analysis with 45 original documents to demonstrate that opponents to the current corporate-led, neoliberal globalization present viable, sophisticated alternatives. Her earliest book – Development Debacle: The World Bank in the Philippines, co-authored with Walden Bello and others in 1982 – was one of the first to present an in-depth critique of World Bank lending. She is also the author of the books Plundering Paradise: The Struggle for the Environment in the Philippines (co-authored with John Cavanagh) and Unequal Alliance: The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Philippines. Masuma Farooki is Associate Director for the metals and mining consulting unit at S&P Global Market Intelligence. She is a development economist and