The Geopolitics of Iran

628 Pages·2021·8.94 MB·English

by  Francisco José B. S. Leandro, Carlos Branco, Flavius Caba-Maria

STUDIES IN IRANIAN POLITICS
SERIES EDITOR: SHAHRAM AKBARZADEH
The Geopolitics of Iran
Edited by F rancisco José B. S. Leandro
Carlos Branco
Flavius Caba-Maria
Studies in Iranian Politics
Series Editor
Shahram Akbarzadeh, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship
& Globalisation, Deakin University, Burwood, VIC, Australia
This series offers much-needed insights into the internal and external
dynamics of the Islamic Republic of Iran. A major player in the Middle
East, Iran faces a range of challenges and opportunities that have signifi-
cant ramifications for its citizens and the neighbourhood. Questions of
political representation, Islamic rule, as well as youth and civil society
movements are contentious topics in a state that feels besieged by hostile
forces. The intersection of such factors present fascinating case-studies.
StudiesinIranianPoliticswillpublishground-breakingresearchthatdraw
on original sources and contribute to our understanding of contempo-
rary Iran. The Advisory Board for this series includes Prof. Mohammed
Ayoob (Michigan State University), Prof. Anoush Ehteshami (Durham
University), Prof. Mehran Kamrava (Georgetown University) and Prof.
Mahmood Sariolghalam (Shahid Beheshti University).
More information about this series at
http://www.palgrave.com/gp/series/15186
· ·
Francisco José B. S. Leandro Carlos Branco
Flavius Caba-Maria
Editors
The Geopolitics
of Iran
Editors
Francisco José B. S. Leandro Carlos Branco
City University of Macau Instituto Português de Relações
Macau, China Internacionais
Lisboa, Portugal
Flavius Caba-Maria
Middle East Political and Economic
Institute
Bucharest City, Romania
ISSN 2524-4132 ISSN 2524-4140 (electronic)
Studies in Iranian Politics
ISBN 978-981-16-3563-2 ISBN 978-981-16-3564-9 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-3564-9
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Foreword
Imagine the view from Tehran. It is early 2021. You are an Iranian, with
inherited memories of empire and conquest, yet also of foreign invasions
and defeat; a citizen of a country isolated in the world, yet also a rising
poweraccusedofhegemonicambitions,onethatmaybepoorlymanaged
but also has accumulated and deployed remarkable technical brainpower;
you’re part of a population kept down by harsh economic sanctions but
that has proved doggedly resilient; you’re saddled with a leadership that
champions a revolutionary ideology, now fading, even as it projects its
power across the region; and you belong to a society that veers between
forbearance and protest, but is kept in check by a security apparatus that
uses an effective blend of co-optation and naked repression to stay in
power.
This is Iran today—located on a geopolitical junction between the
Asian and European continents, hemmed in between former Soviet
republics, Turkey, Afghanistan and the Arab world, and commanding a
strategic chokepoint—the Strait of Hormuz—through which flow one-
fifthoftheworld’sglobaloilconsumptionandaquarterofitsLNGtrade.
The country is a magnet for foreign interests as it strives to escape its
containment and attain its full potential, which it deems an entitlement
after four decades of isolation.
For centuries, Iran has fought for its security and survival by warding
off outside threats. For the same length of time it also has forged critical
allianceswithexternalpowerstobetterinsulateitselfagainstsuchthreats.
v
vi FOREWORD
Ithashadexperienceofforeignpowersvyingtopartitionthecountryinto
spheres of influence. Yet in the process it has perfected the art of divide
and rule in confronting both internal and external challenges. Ever since
itsIslamicrevolution,ithasattemptedtoprojectitspowerintoitsneigh-
bourhood, initially in Lebanon but also, in the more recent past, in Iraq,
Syria and Yemen, where it succeeded by capitalizing on the weakness and
mistakes of its adversaries. The 2011 Arab uprisings, and their destruc-
tive aftermath, proved a turning point as Arab states collapsed, creating a
vacuumintowhichIran,amongothers,waskeentostepbeforeoneofits
rivalswould.Itthusspreadordeepeneditsinfluencepartlybydesignbut
mainly by default, either way terrifying its enemies.
Its main strategy in the region, from the days it established Hezbollah
in the wake of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, has been to court local
non-state allies, and to arm and train them. For this it used the Qods
Force, an expeditionary arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
the Pasdaran, commanded by Qasem Soleimani until his killing in an
American drone strike in January 2020.
ThatattackwaspartofanunremittingU.S.efforttokeepIranleashed,
whichstartedwiththeIslamicrevolutionandhostagecrisismorethan40
years ago. Even the Obama administration, which sought to overcome
the bitter legacy of the 1953 CIA-orchestrated coup that overthrew the
elected government of Mohammad Mosaddegh, the embassy hostage-
taking, and ongoing sparring in the Middle East and beyond, remained
intent on keeping Iran contained.
The next administration, led by Donald Trump, went back to the
old way, throwing the nuclear accord President Obama had negotiated
out of the window, re-imposing sanctions, and endeavouring to clip
Iran’s regional power projection through economic coercion and mili-
tary deterrence. This campaign, dubbed “maximum pressure”, further
impoverished a population already stressed by a badly run economy
while failing to achieve any of its stated objectives: further limiting Iran’s
nuclearprogramme,reducingitsfootprintintheregion,destabilizingthe
country,andforcingitsleadershipbacktothenegotiatingtableonfarless
favourable terms.
To the contrary, Iran appeared undeterred, if perturbed, by sanctions
and setbacks, which merely re-empowered the hard-line elements of its
politicalclass.ItlashedoutattheUnitedStatesanditsalliesintheregion,
displayinganastutesenseofhowclosetothelimititcouldtakeanescala-
tion short of precipitating a full-throated U.S. military response. On the
FOREWORD vii
nuclear front, it countered new U.S. sanctions by incrementally violating
thenucleardeal,butitmadeclearitsstepswerereversibleandthatindeed
it would reverse them should the Trump administration or its successor
come around or the Europeans decide to compensate Iran.The arrivalof
the Biden administration seemed to offer a new opening.
The experience of both the Obama and Trump years shows that the
IslamicRepublicisheretostayunlessoneoftwothingshappens:aviolent
overthrow by the United States and its allies, or its collapse in a popular
uprising. Neither scenario appears likely. The 2003 Iraq invasion showed
the limits of U.S. power in the region, and even laid bare its vulnerabil-
ities through the consequences it unintentionally unleashed: the empow-
erment of jihadist groups; the United States learned an important lesson,
which it heeded in subsequent discussions about the wisdom of using
American power in the pursuit of regime change and state rebuilding in
Libya and Syria. And while a significant segment of the Iranian popula-
tionmaybethoroughlyfedupwiththeclericalleadership—thereisevery
indication many people are—they appear to have neither the means to
effectivelycounteradeeplyentrenchedrepressivesecurityapparatusnora
viable alternative.
It is an axiom of international relations that one negotiates with one’s
enemy. As long as the notion that the Islamic Republic will somehow
disappear remains as fanciful as it is today, Iran and its adversaries will
have to find ways to accommodate one another. This requires dialogue
anddiplomacy.Fromtheirside,theIranianshaveprovedtobeascapable
as diplomats as they have been in military affairs, and have shown they
can effectively combine the two. The United States, by contrast, has
shown inconsistency and, at least in the last four years, an unhealthy
resort to coercion as the only way of dealing with Iran. A return to such
an approach, during the Biden administration or the one succeeding it,
might well deliver a self-fulfilling prophecy: the further rise of a vengeful
power, nurtured by the resourcefulness that its long isolation forced it
to develop, now with explicitly hegemonic ambitions and an ability to
disrupt an oil-dependent global economy.
There is much to recommend the volume in front of you. Its main
objective is to show why and how Iran has been and remains a relevant
actor in the international order, and particularly in the context of the
MiddleEast—aregionalpowerweignoreatourperil.Toaccomplishthis,
thisvolume:addressesIran’sintertwinedinterestsandperceptions,basing
the country’s foreign policymaking on its religion-inspired ideology and
viii FOREWORD
four-decadeenmitywiththeUnitedStates;examinesIran’srelationswith
states in its wider neighbourhood, as well as with world powers—China,
the European Union and Russia, in addition to the United States; and
offersanarrayofscholarlyviewsonthemanyandvariousaspectsofIran’s
durability in an unsparing world.
Indoingso,thisvolumeoffersawindowonIranlookingin,providing
a glimpse of a nation’s lived experience. It is as close as we can come to a
firm grasp of how such an experience can be lived in the first place. May
it serve a global audience that values the importance of reciprocal under-
standingasthefoundationforsounddecision-makinginthemanagement
of inter-state relations.
Joost Hiltermann
Program Director, Middle East & North Africa
International Crisis Group, Brussels, Belgium
Joost Hiltermann Author of Poisonous Affair (Cambridge University Press), a
book about U.S. policy and the use of chemical weapons during the Iran-Iraq
war.
Acknowledgements
The preparation of this volume lasted from 2018 to 2021, and involved
senior and young scholars, international relations practitioners, members
of think tanks, politicians, economists, historians and Ph.D. students.
Throughout the process, the editors had in mind four editorial avenues,
to limit the possibility of a biased narrative: (1) diversity in affiliations
of authors; (2) encouragement of co-authorship of research, between
different nationalities; (3) publication opportunity for young researchers
and Ph.D. candidates; (4) gender balance, or at least a significant partic-
ipation of women. Generally speaking, these four editorial lines were
fulfilled with the inclusion of twelve different nationalities, the presen-
tation of five chapters in co-authorship, the participation of six young
researchers, and a noteworthy participation of female authors.
The editors are particularly grateful to Joost Hiltermann for his
outstanding foreword and for having a thorough and constructive
dialogue regarding the structure and rationale of the book. In the same
line of reasoning, the editors wish to extend their deepest gratitude to
all contributors, with whom a constant academic discussion has allowed
us to overcome all challenges. Likewise, the editors wish to convey
sincere recognition and gratitude to Palgrave Macmillan, especially for
ix