The Future of the Non-Proliferation Treaty

229 Pages·1995·21.282 MB·English

by  John Simpson, Darryl Howlett (eds.)

THE FUTURE OF THE NON-PROLIFERATION
TREATY
SOUTHAMPTON STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL POLICY
Published in association with the Mountbatten Centre for Inter
national Studies, University of Southampton
General Editor: Dilys M. Hill
Other academic members of the editorial board: Ralph Beddard,
Stevan K. Pavlowitch, John Simpson
This series was established in 1986 to encourage the publication of
multidisciplinary studies of those public policies with significant
international components or implications. Areas of special interest
include arms-control and defence policies, environmental policies,
human rights, maritime and space issues, third-world development
questions and the EU.
The Future of the
Non-Proliferation
Treaty
Edited by
John Simpson
Professor of International Relations
University of Southampton
and
Darryl Howlett
Senior Research Fellow
Mountbatten Centre for International Studies
University of Southampton
M
in association with the
Palgrave Macmillan
-S-t.- M--a-r-ti-n-'s- -P-re~s~s
Selection and editorial matter© John Simpson and Darryl Howlett 1995
Text © Macmillan Press Ltd 1995
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1995 978-0-333-61857-8
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of
this publication may be made without written pem1ission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or
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Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this
publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil
claims for damages.
First published in Great Britain 1995 by
MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
A catalogue record for this book is available
from the British Library.
ISBN 978-1-349-23726-5 ISBN 978-1-349-23724-1 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-23724-1
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 I
04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96 95
First published in the United States of America 1995 by
Scholarly and Reference Division,
ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC.,
175 Fifth Avenue,
New York, N.Y. 10010
ISBN 978-0-312-12279-9
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The Future of the Non-Proliferation Treaty I
edited by John Simpson and Darryl Howlett.
p. em.
Papers presented at a July 1993 seminar organized by PPNN in
Southampton, England.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-312-12279-9
I. Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons ( 1968).
2. Nuclear nonproliferation. I. Simpson, John, 1943-
II. Howlett, Darryl A., J954-
JX1974.73.F88 1995
341.7'34-dc20 94-18289
CIP
Contents
List of Tables vii
Preface IX
The Mountbatten Centre for International Studies x
The Programme for Promoting Nuclear Non-Proliferation ( PPNN) xi
Notes on the Contributors xiii
INTRODUCTION
The Future of the Non-Proliferation Treaty: an Overview 3
John Simpson and Darryl Howlett
2 Nuclear Non-Proliferation: the Current Context 11
Jayantha Dhanapala
PART I THE EXTENSION OF THE NPT
3 The 1995 NPT Conference: A Preliminary Review of the Issues 21
David A. V. Fischer
4 Preparing For 1995: Substantive and Organisation Work by 34
Parties and Secretariat
Ben Sanders
5 Procedural Issues for the Review and Extension Conference 47
GeorgeBunn
PART II REVIEW OF THE TREATY: SECURITY QUESTIONS
6 The Obligations of Parties: Reviews of Articles I and II 61
Lewis A. Dunn
7 Nuclear Disarmament: Review of Article VI 66
Tariq Rauf
8 Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones 86
JozefGoldblat
9 Security Assurances 98
OluAdeniji
v
PART ill REVIEW OF THE TREATY: PEACEFUL USES AND
VERIFICATION
10 Peaceful Uses: Review of Articles IV and V 109
Djali Ahimsa
11 National and International Verification and Action in the Event 119
of Non-compliance: Review of Article ill
Lawrence Scheinman
12 Export Controls: Review of Article ill 129
Harald Miiller
PART IV REVIEW OF THE TREATY: REGIONAL ISSUES
13 North Korea's Bid to Withdraw from the NPT 147
Yoshio Okawa
14 The Middle East, Israel and Iraq 162
Mohamed I. Shaker
15 The Commonwealth of Independent States 172
Roland Timerbaev
16 Argentina-Brazil Nuclear Non-Proliferation Initiatives 181
John R. Redick
CONCLUSION
17 Issues at the 1995 NPT Conference 195
John Simpson and Darryl Howlett
Select Bibliography 207
Appendix A: Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons 212
(NPT)
Appendix B: NPT Parties 219
Index 223
vi
List of Tables
7.1 US Security Assistance to the Former Soviet Union 76
15.1 Soviet Strategic Nuclear Weapons Outside of the Russian
Federation 173
15.2 Nuclear Assets in the Former Soviet Republics 175
vii
Preface
From 17 April to 12 May 1995 a Conference will be held in New York
both to review the workings of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation ofNuclear
Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT), and to decide on its future
extension. In July 1993, a seminar on this Conference was organised by
PPNN in Southampton for senior officials from NPT parties with
responsibility for drafting their state's non-proliferation policies. This
volume stems from the papers presented at that meeting.
One significant theme running throughout the discussions at the PPNN
meeting was the strength of support in the international community for the
NPT generated by the Treaty's positive merits. However, in the period
approaching the 1995 NPT Conference, discussions seem likely to focus
more on problems with the implementation of the Treaty, and methods for
reinforcing it, rather than offering praise for the NPT' s record of success. It
may be a mere statistical correlation, but since the NPT was opened for
signature in 1968, there have been no further declarations of overt nuclear
weapon status. Would matters have been significantly different if the NPT
had not been in force? And in the post-Cold War era, is there any alternative
treaty to the NPT which could both provide a security framework to underpin
the new political systems emerging in the world, and command the support
of the vast majority of the international community?
One key problem that emerged from the meeting in Southampton was how
to improve the NPT while avoiding the risk of inadvertently creating a
situation no state desires, such as no decision on length of extension emerging
in 1995 or the Treaty being extended for a short period or periods only. This
demonstrates the need for all participants in the Conference to be fully
briefed on the complexities surrounding the Treaty, in order to prevent an
outcome desired by no one. This volume is intended to contribute towards
that end
The editors would like to acknowledge the invaluable assistance of those
who helped with the preparation of this volume: Emily Bailey, Sarah Baker,
Jan Bird, Joanne Burgess, Ben Cole, Richard Guthrie and Rosemary Morris.
Grateful thanks are also extended to Marcel Lettre, who provided much
needed assistance in the organisation of the Southampton PPNN conference
during his internship with the Mountbatten Centre for International Studies.
ix
The Mountbatten Centre for
International Studies
The Mountbatten Centre for International Studies (MCIS), located in the
Department of Politics at the University of Southampton, conducts many
cooperative and individual research programmes and activities. Current
areas of research include nuclear non-proliferation, human rights,
international environmental issues, naval peacekeeping, European and Asian
security, civil-military relations and police studies.
MCIS activities include residential seminars by its Defence Studies Unit
as well as a programme of seminars and public lectures. The Centre is
interdisciplinary, relying for its resource base on many departments within
the University including History, Law, Education, and Aeronautics and
Astronautics.
Links have been established with the Centre d'Histoire Militaire of the
University of Montpellier, the Foundation pour les Etudes de Defense
Nationale, Paris, and the Faculte des Affaires Internationales, Universite du
Havre. The Centre also participates in the work of the team on Politic.al
Culture in Eastern Europe at the Ecole des Hauts Etudes en Sciences Sociales,
Paris. Members of the Centre have participated in the work of the European
Science Foundation and the International Congress of Historical Sciences.
Publications of the Centre include the Southampton Studies in
International Policy book series, in association with Macmillan, and a
monograph and newsletter series produced by the programme on nuclear
non-proliferation. MCIS was established in 1990 in succession to the Centre
for International Policy Studies (founded in 1983). The Mountbatten Centre
bears the name of the Earl Mountbatten of Burma (1900-79) whose papers
are housed at the University of Southampton.
X