The Future of EU Agricultural Markets by AGMEMOD PDF
Preview The Future of EU Agricultural Markets by AGMEMOD
The Future of EU Agricultural Markets by AGMEMOD Frédéric Chantreuil (cid:129) Kevin F. Hanrahan Myrna van Leeuwen Editors The Future of EU Agricultural Markets by AGMEMOD Editors Dr. Frédéric Chantreuil Dr. Kevin F. Hanrahan Université de Caen Basse Normandie Teagasc UFR Sciences Economiques et Gestion Rural Economy Development Programme 17 rue Claude Bloch, BP 5186, Agricultural Economics and Farm Survey F-14032 Caen Cedex Department France Athenry [email protected] Galway Ireland Myrna van Leeuwen [email protected] Research Area International Policy LEI Wageningen UR Alexanderveld 5 2585 DB The Hague The Netherlands [email protected] Files, programs and tools of the AGMEMOD 4.0 version are available for download at Springer’s Extra Materials website: http://extras.springer.com/ ISBN 978-94-007-2290-3 e-ISBN 978-94-007-2291-0 DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-2291-0 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2011940680 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfi lming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifi cally for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge the members of the AGMEMOD Advisory Group – Loek Boonekamp (OECD), Lauri Kettunen (MTT), Hans-Jörg Lutzeyer (European Commission-DG RTD), Wolfgang Münch (European Commission-DG AGRI), Emilio Rossi (Global Insight), Patrick Westhoff (FAPRI at the University of Missouri) – for the fruitful comments, suggestions and advice they have provided to the Partnership since the foundation of the AGMEMOD project. The authors would like to thank the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS ) and DG RTD for their support and assistance in jointly organising validation workshops hosted at IPTS Seville and at DG AGRI Brussels. We would like to thank representatives of DG AGRI, DG JRC, DG RTD, FAPRI, OECD, FAO, University of Bonn, University of Gottingen and University of Aberdeen for the helpful criticisms, remarks and suggestions they made concerning the AGMEMOD results that were presented during these workshops. Any opinions and fi ndings, conclusions, suggestions or recommendations expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessary refl ect the view of European Commission Services or Research Institutes and Universities who are supporting the AGMEMOD Partnership. F. Chantreuil K.F. Hanrahan M. van Leeuwen v Contents Part I 1 Background ............................................................................................... 7 Kevin F. Hanrahan, Trevor Donnellan, and Emil Erjavec 2 Model Structure and Parameterisation .................................................. 21 Roberto Esposti, Guna Salputra, Frédéric Chantreuil, Kevin F. Hanrahan, Petra Salamon, and Andrzej Tabeau 3 AGMEMOD Model ................................................................................... 45 Myrna van Leeuwen, Foppe Bouma, Frédéric Chantreuil, Wietse Dol, Emil Erjavec, Kevin F. Hanrahan, Petra Salamon, and Guna Salputra Part II 4 EU Market Outlook .................................................................................. 77 Trevor Donnellan, Frédéric Chantreuil, Emil Erjavec, Roberto Esposti, Kevin F. Hanrahan, Myrna van Leeuwen, Petra Salamon, and Guna Salputra 5 The CAP Beyond 2013 .............................................................................. 97 Emil Erjavec, Frédéric Chantreuil, Trevor Donnellan, Roberto Esposti, Kevin F. Hanrahan, Myrna van Leeuwen, Petra Salamon, and Guna Salputra 6 Conclusions and Future Work ................................................................. 119 Frédéric Chantreuil, Kevin F. Hanrahan, and Myrna van Leeuwen Glossary ........................................................................................................... 123 Authors and Contributors .............................................................................. 125 Index ................................................................................................................. 127 vii AGMEMOD Partnership Universität für Bodenkultur Wien Martin Kniepert, Markus Hofreither Université Catholique de Louvain Bruno Henry de Frahan, Henrich Brunke Institute of Agriculture Economics Nedka Ivanova, Plamen Mishev, Mariya Peneva Institute of Agricultural Ivan Foltyn, Economics and Information Jan Kubat, Ida Zednickova Food and Resource Economic Institute Jørgen D. Jensen, Lars-Bo Jacobsen Institute of Economics and Social Mati Sepp, Sciences Tönu Akkel Estonian Agricultural University MTT Agrifood Research Finland Jyrki Niemi, Heikki Lehtonen, Lauri Kettunen Institut National de la Frédéric Chantreuil, Recherche Agronomique Marie-Dominique Le Barbenchon, Fabrice Levert Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, Petra Salamon, Federal Research Institute for Rural Oliver von Ledebur Areas, Forestry and Fisheries Department of Economics, George Mergos, University of Athens Anastasios Portokalakis, Elias Mantzouneas Corvinus University of Budapest Tibor Ferenczi, Tibor Varga ix
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