The Future of Economic Growth: As New Becomes Old (The Saint-Gobain Centre for Economic Studies Series)

193 Pages·2004·1.078 MB·English

by  Robert Boyer

The Future of Economic Growth
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The Future of
Economic Growth
As New Becomes Old
Robert Boyer
Senior Researcher at the Centre National de la Recherche
Scientifique (CNRS), Professor (Directeur d’Études) at the
École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) and
Economist at the Centre d’Études Prospectives d’Économie
Mathématique Appliquées à la Planification (CEPREMAP),
Paris, France
THE SAINT-GOBAIN CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC STUDIES SERIES
Edward Elgar
Cheltenham, UK • Northampton, MA, USA
© The Saint-Gobain Centre for Economic Studies 2004
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic,
mechanical or photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior
permission of the publisher.
Published by
Edward Elgar Publishing Limited
Glensanda House
Montpellier Parade
Cheltenham
Glos GL50 1UA
UK
Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc.
136 West Street
Suite 202
Northampton
Massachusetts 01060
USA
A catalogue record for this book
is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data
Boyer, Robert, 1943–
[Croissance début de siècle. English]
The future of economic growth : as new becomes old / Robert Boyer.
p. cm. — (Saint-Gobain Centre for Economic Studies)
Translation of: La croissance début de siècle.

1. Economic development. 2. Information technology. 3. Economic forecasting. 4.
Economic history—20th century. I. Title. II. Saint-Gobain Centre for Economic Studies
(Series)
HD83.B69313 2004
338.9—dc22
2003049260
ISBN 1 84376 606 X (cased)
ISBN 1 84376 607 8 (paperback)
Printed and bound in Great Britain by MPG Books Ltd, Bodmin, Cornwall
Contents

List of Figures viii

List of Graphs and Boxes ix

List of Tables x

Preface to the English edition xi

Acknowledgements xvii

Introduction 1

A shared vision 1

Beyond the myths 2

A kaleidoscopic approach 3

1 A social construct and an analytical challenge 5

Introduction 5

The American economy in the 1990s was no longer the same as

that in the 1960s 5

Combining micro- and macroeconomics, history and geography 8

The difficulty of analysing structural changes in real time 9

Conclusion 13

2 Microeconomic instability and an uncertain organizational model 14

Introduction 14

Digitalized information and redundant networks 14

The three figures of the ‘new economy’ 17

The search for an organizational model for the ‘new economy’ 19

Conclusion 25

3 A growth regime driven by information and communications

technology? 26

Introduction 26

The new and the old economies: a conjunction of two virtuous

circles? 26

The Solow paradox has not been entirely resolved yet 28

Faster potential growth: problems with forecasting 33

The ‘new economy’ has had different effects on different sectors 36

Conclusion 42

v
vi The future of economic growth
4 Genealogy of the ‘new economy’: the institutional change at the

heart of the US trajectory 44

Introduction 44

1973–2000: the long search for successors to the Fordist growth

regime 44

An early deregulation of the product market 51

Increasingly competitive labour markets 53

ICT as a way of overcoming management problems in large

companies 55

The peace dividend 57

A new architecture for economic policy 58

Multiform financial innovations 60

Internationalization underpinned internal US dynamics 62

Should other countries adopt the institutional architecture of the

USA? 63

Conclusion 64

5 The geography of the ‘new economy’: the diversity of

institutional architectures 65

Introduction 65

ICT at the heart of the technological change process 65

Pre-conditions for virtuous growth: two configurations 68

Was the US configuration exemplary or just singular? 70

Three institutional configurations 71

Is it necessary to produce ICT in order to know how to use them? 73

Conclusion 75

6 2000–2002: reassessing the potential of ICT-driven growth 77

Introduction 77

The Internet bubble: from boom to burst 77

Traders and economists forget the lessons of history at their

own peril 86

Consecutive technological paradigms do not resemble one another 90

Conclusion 99

7 The long-term historical outlook after the Internet bubble 101

Introduction 101

Overestimating ICT’s role 101

The end of three major myths 105

Inequalities within and between countries: down with

technological determinism 107

An uncertain mode of regulation 109
Contents vii

The opposition between the old and the new economy is obsolete 115

Conclusion 118

8 The emergence of an anthropogenetic model 120

Introduction 120

ICT as the vector of real-time management? 120

Moving towards a network economy? 124

The transition towards a knowledge economy? 128

In the long run: an anthropogenetic model 136

Conclusion 143

9 Conclusion 145

The future lasts for a long time 145

Behind the success of the ‘new economy’: a crisis already in the

making 145

Multiform institutional changes rather than technological

determinism 147

The geography of the ‘new economy’ actually includes the

Nordic countries 147

ICT is already a mature industry 148

The power of Wall Street instead of Silicon Valley 149

Altered competition but no return to mythical competitive markets 150

Between speculation and utopia: the anthropogenetic model 151

Bibliography 153

Index 168
Figures

1.1 The difficulty in describing ‘structural’ change 12
3.1 A growth regime that results from the conjunction of two
virtuous circles 27
3.2 A number of different factors have contributed to the recovery
in productivity 31
3.3 Corporate reorganizations as a necessary pre-condition for
reviving productivity 32
6.1 Birth and death of the ‘new economy’ 79
7.1 Even an electronic market is based on the assumption that a
whole set of public institutions and legal rules exist 114
8.1 The ‘new’ economy’s path towards an anthropogenetic regime 129
viii
Graphs and Boxes

GRAPHS
4.1 Adjusted and annual variations in growth rate of total US

productivity, 1965–1999 52

4.2 Comparative changes over two cycles in real wages and

productivity 54

4.3 ICT is primarily used for professional purposes 55

4.4 Unlike Japanese stocks, US share prices have been tracking the

diffusion of ICT 61

4.5 1996–2000: the evidence of a financial bubble 62

5.1 The economies that were part of a virtuous circle of growth

regime 66

5.2 Is there any link between the production and the utilization

of ICT? 74

6.1 By 1998 profits were already starting to erode 85

6.2 A capital structure that has become increasingly heavy 85

8.1 A comparison of trends in household spending on durable

goods and on health 138

9.1 Does belief in a new era herald the advent of a crisis? 146

BOX
8.1 Access to information is no substitute for competency and

knowledge 133

ix