The Future of East Asia PDF
Preview The Future of East Asia
ASIA TODAY THE FUTURE OF EAST ASIA Edited by Peter Hayes and Chung-In Moon Asia Today Series Editors Takashi Inoguchi University of Niigata Prefecture Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan G. John Ikenberry Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University Princeton, NJ, USA Seen from the perspectives of political economy, political security, and political culture, Asia offers fascinating opportunities for political and international studies because of concurrent changes internally and exter- nally. The tide of globalization and digitalization leads comparative politics and international relations to be examined together. Interdisciplinary approaches will be just as fruitful as those from traditional disciplines. This series examines Asia to its fullest extent, covering East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia (including Iran, Iraq, the Gulf States, and Turkey). More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/14780 Peter Hayes • Chung-In Moon Editors The Future of East Asia Editors Peter Hayes Chung-In Moon Nautilus Institute Global Asia Journal Berkeley, CA, USA Seoul, Korea (Republic of) Asia Today ISBN 978-981-10-4976-7 ISBN 978-981-10-4977-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-4977-4 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017947751 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover image: © Ezio Gutzemberg / Alamy Stock Photo Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore PREFACE The Future of East Asia had its genesis in 2005 when the East Asia Foundation was founded by Mong-koo Chung, Chairman of Hyundai Motor Group. Like the Foundation, the book aims to facilitate the for- mation of an East Asian Community by promoting networks that exchange ideas and sustain direct relationships. The Foundation realizes this vision by shaping the annual Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity. The premier event of its kind in the Republic of Korea, the forum brings together thousands of movers and shakers from the region and the world. It also publishes Global Asia, An East Asia Foundation Journal an influential scholarly journal with a policy bent with a circulation of more than 7000 readers. The authors of the essays par- ticipated in these activities and met twice while producing this book. We intended that The Future of East Asia would celebrate the Foundation’s tenth anniversary. But books invariably take longer than planned and, because we wanted only the best contributors, this one was no exception. It would have been impossible without more than two years of hard work by the Foundation’s staff, led by its Executive Director Hyung Taek Hong, with the strong support of now Honorary Chairman Mong-koo Chung, Chairman Ro-myung Gong, and members of the board of trustees. Along the way, we also benefited from the active support of East Asia Foundation Program Officers Chan Koo Kang and Yoon Hee Shin and interns Yeonsu Kim and Haeun Choi, East Asia Foundation and Global Asia fellows, respectively. v vi PREFACE We are also grateful to Maureen Jerrett who meticulously copy-edited every word and sentence in the book as well as to Jacob Dreyer of Palgrave and Takashi Inoguchi for agreeing to publish the manuscript and assisting with rapid review and production. We are especially indebted to Girish Gopinathan and his team for their patient and painstaking copy production and correction work. We’d also like to thank all the authors who undertook to write a “Trumpilogue” to update each chapter in light of the election of America’s new president, with enormous portent for an East Asian community. Finally, we thank the many early visionaries and leaders at every level and in every country, many of whom risked everything to construct a com- munity based on positive peace. This work remains incomplete, but without their willingness to cross any border that blocks the creation of a Northeast Asian community, today we would not be discussing the many ways to create a resilient community while heading off attempts to sow conflict and division in the region. Berkeley, CA, USA Peter Hayes Seoul, Korea (Republic of) Chung-In Moon CONTENTS 1 Circling the Square: The Imagining of an East Asian Community 1 Peter Hayes and Chung-In Moon 2 One Asia in History: Recasting and Forecasting 19 Nayan Chanda 3 The Future of Power Politics in East Asia 47 Ruizhuang Zhang 4 The Future of Liberal Order in East Asia 81 G. John Ikenberry 5 National Identities and Bilateral Relations in East Asia Over the Next Decade: Will the Downward Spiral Continue? 103 Gilbert Rozman 6 Toward an East Asian Economic Community: Opportunities and Challenges 131 Choong Yong Ahn vii viii CONTENTS 7 Is a Northeast Asia Security Community Possible and Probable? 165 Muthiah Alagappa 8 Quiet Transformation from the Bottom: Emerging Transnational Networks Among Non-State Actors in Northeast Asia Community-Building 195 Seung Youn Oh 9 The Future of a Nuclear Weapons-Free Northeast Asia 227 Peter Hayes 10 Barriers to Community-Building in Northeast Asia: Geopolitics, Nationalism, and Domestic Politics 267 Chung-In Moon Index 309 EDITORS AND CONTRIBUTORS About the Editors Peter Hayes is honorary professor at the Centre for International Security Studies, Sydney University, Australia, and director of Nautilus Institute, Berkeley, California. He works at the nexus of security, envi- ronment, and energy problems. At Nautilus, he develops techniques to implement near-term solutions to interconnected global problems and applies them in East Asia, Australia, and South Asia. Email:
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