The Foreign Policy Disconnect: What Americans Want from Our Leaders but Don't Get (American Politics and Political Economy Series)

369 Pages·2006·0.85 MB·English

by  Benjamin I. Page

The Foreign Policy
d i s c o n n e c t
*
What Americans
w a n t from
Our Leaders but
d o n ’ t g e t
b e n j a m i n i . p a g e with
m a r s h a l l m . b o u t o n
The Foreign Policy Disconnect
american politics and political economy
A series edited by Benjamin I. Page
The Foreign Policy Disconnect
What Americans Want from Our Leaders but Don’t Get
Benjamin I. Page withMarshall M. Bouton
The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London
benjamin i. pageis the Gordon Scott Fulcher Professor of Decision
Making in the department of political science at Northwestern
University. He is the author or coauthor of, among other books,
The Rational Public, Who Deliberates?,and What Government Can Do,
all published by the University of Chicago Press.
marshall m. boutonhas been president of the Chicago Council
on Foreign Relations since 2001. He is the author of Agrarian
Radicalism and South Indiaand Korea at the Crossroads.
The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637
The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London
© 2006 by The University of Chicago
All rights reserved. Published 2006
Printed in the United States of America
15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 1 2 3 4 5
isbn-10:0-226-64461-8 (cloth)
isbn-13:978-0-226-64461-5 (cloth)
isbn-10:0-226-64462-6 (paper)
isbn-13:978-0-226-64462-2 (paper)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Page, Benjamin I.
The foreign policy disconnect : what Americans want from our
leaders but don’t get / Benjamin I. Page ; with Marshall M. Bouton.
v. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Contents: Introduction : what sort of foreign policy? — Taking
public opinion seriously — The goals of security and justice —
Friends and foes in the world — Military strength and the use
offorce — Political cooperation — Economic well-being and
economic justice — A disconnect between policy makers and the
public? — Conclusion : foreign policy and democracy.
isbn0-226-64461-8 (cloth : alk. paper) — isbn0-226-64462-6 (pbk. :
alk. paper)
1. United States—Foreign relations—2001—Public opinion.
2. United States—Foreign relations—2001—Decision making.
3. Public opinion—United States. I. Bouton, Marshall M., 1942–
II. Title.
e902.p34 2006
327.73009(cid:2)0511—dc22 2006010699
(cid:2)(cid:3)
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum
requirements of the American National Standard for Information
Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ansi
z39.48-1992.
Contents
Illustrations vii
Preface ix
Introduction: What Sort of Foreign Policy? 1
1. Taking Public Opinion Seriously 17
2. The Goals of Security and Justice 38
3. Friends and Foes in the World 74
4. Military Strength and the Use of Force 100
5. Political Cooperation 139
6. Economic Well-Being and Economic Justice 174
7. A Disconnect between Policy Makers and the Public? 201
8. Conclusion: Foreign Policy and Democracy 227
Appendix: How Goals Cluster 247
Notes 251
References 313
Index 325

Illustrations
figure
1.1 Elements of a purposive belief system
tables
2.1 Goals for U.S. foreign policy
2.2 Cold War–era goals
2.3 Post–Cold War goals
2.4 Perceived threats to the vital interest of the United States
3.1 Americans’ feelings about foreign countries and peoples
3.2 Americans’ feelings about U.S. and foreign world leaders
3.3 Effects of education, knowledge, and internationalism on feelings toward
foreign countries and peoples
3.4 Effects of religion on feelings toward Middle Eastern countries and leaders
4.1 Military action against terrorism
4.2 Troop use under various circumstances
4.3 Troop use in invasion scenarios
4.4 Expanding or cutting back government programs
4.5 Long-term military bases abroad
4.6 Sources of support for using U.S. troops if North Korea invaded South Korea
4.7 Sources of support for using U.S. troops if Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded
Saudi Arabia
viii Illustrations
4.8 Sources of support for attacks by U.S. ground troops against terrorist train-
ing camps
4.9 Sources of support for participating in a UN peacekeeping force
4.10Sources of support for expanding defense spending
5.1 Sources of support for joint decision making with the European Union
5.2 Diplomatic and nonmilitary measures for combating terrorism
5.3 Sources of support for U.S. actively working for a Palestinian state
5.4 Feelings toward international organizations and groups
5.5 Strengthening international institutions
5.6 Sources of support for paying UN dues in full
5.7 International treaties and agreements
5.8 Sources of support for Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
5.9 Sources of support for Kyoto agreement on global warming
6.1 Perceived impacts of globalization
6.2 Sources of feelings about the World Trade Organization
6.3 Sources of attitudes about immigration
6.4 Cutting back or expanding economic aid to other nations
6.5 Support for humanitarian foreign aid
6.6 Sources of support for increasing economic aid to African countries
7.1 Frequency of disagreements between policy makers and the public
7.2 Magnitude of disagreements between policy makers and the public
7.3 Frequency of opposing majorities between policy makers and the public
7.4 Frequency of policy maker/public disagreements by policy type
7.5 Frequency of opposing majorities by policy type
7.6 Magnitude of differences over time between the public and policy makers
on selected issues
Preface
In a world of terrorist threats, geopolitical shifts, economic pressures, envi-
ronmental dangers, extreme poverty, and threats to human rights, what
should be the most important goals of U.S. foreign policy? What means
shouldbeusedtopursuethosegoals?Military,diplomatic,oreconomic?Uni-
lateral or cooperative? In what combinations, under what circumstances?
For answers to these questions we will turn to a surprising source: the
American people. We will describe in detail the collective policy preferences
of the American public—or, if you wish, “public opinion” about foreign pol-
icy. It turns out that most Americans want a foreign policy that places a
highpriority on economic and social security at home and justice abroad,
not just security from attack. Moreover, most Americans favor cooperative,
multilateral foreign policies—peaceful, when possible—rather than uni-
lateral military ones. We will see that actual U.S. foreign policy has often
diverged markedly from what the public wants. There have been frequent
gaps, perhaps even a “disconnect,” between citizens and decision makers.
We argue that this is troubling for a democracy, and that U.S. foreign policy
would be better and more sustainable if decision makers paid more atten-
tion to what ordinary citizens want.
Our argument flies in the face of claims that public opinion about for-
eign policy is ignorant, emotional, vacillating, and perhaps downright dan-
gerous to coherent policy making. In order to sustain our argument, there-
fore,weneedtolookcloselyatthestructureanddynamicsofpublicopinion
as well as its substantive content. Using extensive survey data collected over
a thirty-year period, with a particular focus on recent years, we show that
collective opinion is not in fact flimsy, disorganized, or vacillating; it is gen-
erally coherent and consistent and, allowing for reasonable adjustments
toworld events, tends to stay steady over time. Collective opinion about for-
eign policy reflects a great deal of information and knowledge about the