The Five Futures Glasses: How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model PDF
Preview The Five Futures Glasses: How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model
The Five Futures Glasses This page intentionally left blank The Five Futures Glasses How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model Pero Mic´ic´ CEO, FutureManagementGroup AG, Germany © Pero Mi´ci´c 2010 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2010 978-0-230-24705-5 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his rights to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published in 2007 by GABAL Verlag GmbH, Offenbach as Die fünf Zukunftsbrillen This edition published 2010 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-31971-8 ISBN 978-0-230-27531-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230275317 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 Contents List of figures xi List of tables xii About the author xiii 1 About this book 1 Thefivefuturesglassesasamentalmapforfutures 1 Readers,goalsandbenefitsofthisbook 4 Thegoalsofthisbook 4 Whatisnew? 6 Whatcanthisbookdoandwhatcan’titdo? 6 Remarks 7 2 Why we need futures glasses 8 Man’smotivesforforesight 8 Futuremanagement:Entrepreneurialfuturesresearch 10 Fromfuturesresearchtofuturemanagement 10 Futuremanagementasabridge 11 Theimportanceoffuturemanagement 11 Goalsandfruitsoffuturemanagement 14 Futuresconfusions 15 Goalsconfusion 17 Roleconfusion 22 Methodconfusion 25 Whatisrequiredinpractice 27 3 Many futures and five futures glasses 29 Historicalperspectivesonthefuture 29 Amapoffutures 29 Futures,notfuture 30 Typesoffutures 31 Howimaginablearefutures? 32 Howprobablearefutures? 33 Howcreatablearefutures? 36 Howdesirablearefutures? 39 Theconceptofthefivefuturesglasses 41 Fromfuturestofuturesglasses 41 v Howyoucaneasilyrememberthefivefuturesglasses 44 Anoverviewofthefivefuturesglasses 46 4 Your blue futures glasses: What lies ahead? 49 Yourbluefuturesglasses:Overview 50 Casestudiesonthebluefuturesglasses 52 Purposeofthebluefuturesglasses 58 Youfirmupthebasisofyourdecisionsandstrategies 58 Youimproveyourorientationandsecurity 59 Youreducethecomplexityofthefuture 60 Youbetterunderstandwhatishappeningtoday 60 Youmakeiteasiertocommunicateaboutthefuture 61 Youintegratethevariousperceptionsofthefuturemoreeasily 61 Youformattractorsforknowledgeaboutthefuture 61 Coreconceptsofthebluefuturesglasses 62 Assumptionquestions 63 Futurefactors 64 Signals 66 Futureprojections 67 Futurescenarios 69 Assumptionsaboutthefuture 69 Attitudeandprinciplesofthebluefuturesglasses 71 Assumethefuturetobelargelyunpredictable 71 Directthebluefuturesglassestowardsyourenvironment 73 Regardthefutureinapassiveanddetachedwayfromthemacroperspective 74 Adoptarealisticandconservativeattitude 74 Considerexperienceasasuccessfactor 75 Youcannotcarryoutacompleteassumptionanalysis 75 Useassumptionsaboutthefutureasareplacementforimpossiblefuture“knowledge” 76 Rememberthateveryonehasassumptionsaboutthefutureallthetime 77 Youcannotdelegateyourassumptionsaboutthefuture 77 Improveyourassumptionsaboutthefuturethroughprovocativeprojections 78 Improveyourassumptionsaboutthefuturebybeingaffectedpersonally 78 Improveyourassumptionsaboutthefuturethroughawidebaseofsupport 79 Methodologychecklists 81 Procedureforcompanies 81 Procedureforlifeentrepreneurs 84 Checklistofmethodsandtechniques 85 5 Your red futures glasses: How could the future surprise you? 87 Yourredfuturesglasses:Overview 88 Casestudiesontheredfuturesglasses 90 Purposeoftheredfuturesglasses 95 Youallowforunpredictability 95 Youmakethefutureeasiertothinkabout,handleandcommunicateaboutuncertainty 95 Youcanseemoreofthepossiblefutureandarethereforelesssurprisedbythefuture 96 Youperceivesurprisingdevelopmentsearlier 97 vi CONTENTS Youprotectyourselfandyourfuturesstrategy 97 Youinitiatenecessarychangesatanearlystage 100 Youperceivemorefutureopportunities 100 Youimproveyourriskmanagement 101 Coreconceptsoftheredfuturesglasses 101 Surprisequestions 102 Surprises 103 Attitudeandprinciplesoftheredfuturesglasses 107 Directtheredfuturesglassestoyourenvironment 107 Thinkinadiscontinuousway 108 Lookforimprobabilities 108 Keepsurprisesontheagenda 109 Spreadpossiblestressmoreevenlyinfuture 109 Don’tregardsurprisesasbeingonlynegative 110 Don’texpectorientationfromsurprises 110 Lookforplausiblesurprises 111 Thenumberofpossiblesurprisesisincreasing 112 Therelevancecomesfromthepotentialeffects 113 Takethenecessarytime 114 Seeyourvulnerabilitiesinflexibilitysacrifices 114 Stakeouttheareaofpossibilitieswithextremes 116 Reducetheeffectoffiltersandbarriers 117 Arrangeforinsiderandoutsiderknowledge 118 Takeapragmaticapproachinthescenarios 119 Methodologychecklists 120 Procedureforcompanies 121 Procedureforlifeentrepreneurs 125 Checklistofmethodsandtechniques 125 6 Your green futures glasses: Which future opportunities do you have? 127 Yourgreenfuturesglasses:Overview 128 Casestudiesonthegreenfuturesglasses 129 Purposeofthegreenfuturesglasses 133 Youcanseemoreofthepossiblefuture 133 Youincreaseyourprobabilityofsuccess 134 Youcanactearlierandachievemore 135 Youhaveabetterviewofwhatthecompetitioncoulddo 135 Youtransformthreatsintoopportunities 136 Youcanbetterhandlefuturedevelopments 136 Youformcomponentsforyourfuturesstrategy 137 Youimprovemotivationandconfidence 137 Coreconceptsofthegreenfuturesglasses 137 Opportunityquestions 138 Futureopportunities 139 Attitudeandprinciplesofthegreenfuturesglasses 141 Usefutureopportunitiestoformthebasisforyourcompetitiveness 141 Believeinimprovement 142 CONTENTS vii Stimulateyoursubconscious 142 Lookthroughthegreenfuturesglasseswiththeeyesofabeginner 142 Prohibitanyformofcriticismwiththegreenfuturesglasses 143 Preferadvantage-opportunitiesovercatching-up-opportunities 144 Lookforopportunitiesatanearlystage 144 Bigopportunitiesholdbigrisksandvice-versa 145 Don’tlookforopportunitiesthatarecompletelynewtotheworld 146 Recognizethedangerofnotseizingopportunities 147 Bemorehonorablethanthe“fastfollowers” 148 Makeyourfutureopportunityassimpleaspossible 149 Balancefeasibilityandcompetitiveadvantage 149 Youcanonlydeterminethevalueofanopportunityimprecisely 149 Carefullyselectwhichfutureopportunitiesyouwanttoleavetothecompetition 150 Determineanopportunity’schancesofsuccessbasedonthebalanceofproand contraarguments 151 Thinkaboutyourlatercautiousnessatanearlystage 151 Fostermodestandsensibleexpectations 151 Methodologychecklists 152 Procedureforcompanies 152 Procedureforlifeentrepreneurs 157 Checklistofmethodsandtechniques 158 7 Your yellow futures glasses: Which future do you want to form? 160 Youryellowfuturesglasses:Overview 162 Casestudiesontheyellowfuturesglasses 164 Purposeoftheyellowfuturesglasses 170 Youcanmanageyourcompanyasacomplexadaptivesystemmoreeasily 170 Youprovideorientationforyourselfandyourteam 171 Youdetermineandformthefutureyouwanttohave 172 Youincreaseyourefficiencyandreduceyourcosts 173 Youactivateyourperformancepotential 173 Youcansetbettergoals 174 Youdecidemoreeasilywhatisimportantandright 174 Yourecognizethreatsandopportunitiesearlier 175 Youimpartconfidenceindifficulttimes 175 Youdifferentiateyourselffromthecompetition 176 Youbecomemoresuccessfuloverall 176 Coreconceptsoftheyellowfuturesglasses 177 Visionquestions 177 Strategicvision(visionelements) 178 Mission(missionelements) 179 Strategicguidelines 180 Attitudeandprinciplesoftheyellowfuturesglasses 180 Usetheyellowfuturesglassesfordecisions 181 Benefitfromself-fulfillment 181 Alignyourvisiontoyourassumptionsaboutthefuture 182 Developthestrategicvisionfromfutureopportunities 182 viii CONTENTS Describethedesiredfuturesituation 183 Youcanlivewithoutavision,yourcompanycannot 183 Designyourvisionasapicture 184 Developingyourvisionisyourtask,notsomeoneelse’s 185 Believeinself-responsibility 187 Believethatthefuturecanbedeliberatelycreated 189 Igniteandpromotepassionforthevision 190 Strengthenthejointvisionthroughcoherenceoftheindividualvisions 191 Acquireasmanysupportersaspossibleforyourvision 193 Formharmonywiththewhole 193 Seeahomeopathicamountofchallengeasideal 194 Havethecouragetosetaconservativevision 197 Orientyourvisiononachievablecompetencesandresources 197 Makeyourvisioncompatiblewithyourhistory 198 Don’toverloadyourcustomerswithinnovations 198 Makeyourvisionaspreciseasnecessary,ascomplexasrequiredandasflexible aspossible 199 Formthenecessarydifferentiationwithvisioncandidates 200 Thehighertheorganizationallevel,themoregeneralyourresultsfortheyellow futuresglasseswillbe 202 Yourstrategicvisionisaperiodicprototype 203 Whatisdecisiveisnottheachievementofyourvision,butitseffectonthepresent 203 Methodologychecklists 204 Procedureforcompanies 204 Procedureforlifeentrepreneurs 207 Checklistofmethodsandtechniques 210 8 Your violet futures glasses: What are you planning to do? 212 Yourvioletfuturesglasses:Overview 213 Casestudiesonthevioletfuturesglasses 214 Purposeofthevioletfuturesglasses 217 Youformaninterfacetostrategicplanning 218 Byplanningyouractivitiesandresources,youbringthevisionintoyourdailybusiness 218 Youembedresponsibilityinyourdailyroutine 218 Youincreasetheprobabilityanddegreeofyoursuccess 218 Youincreaseyourefficiencybyconcentratingyourefforts 219 Youenablesuccessmonitoringandnavigationtowardsyourgoals 219 Yousafeguardyourfuturesstrategyandyourexistence 219 Coreconceptsofthevioletfuturesglasses 219 Strategyandfuturesstrategy 220 Strategyquestions 222 Strategicgoals 222 Additionalcoreconcepts 223 Attitudeandprinciplesofthevioletfuturesglasses 224 Noticetherelationshiptotheyellowfuturesglasses 224 Thequalityofyourstrategydeterminesthequalityofyourfuture 224 Backcastbasedonyourvision 224 CONTENTS ix
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