The ever-changing Sino-Japanese rivalry

141 Pages·2019·1.341 MB·English

by  Streich, Philip

The Ever- Changing
Sino- Japanese Rivalry
What explains the ebb and flow of the Sino- Japanese rivalry? Why do the two
states sometimes choose to escalate or de- escalate the rivalry? Does domestic
politics play a role?
Examining the historic and contemporary relationship between China and
Japan through the lens of the interstate rivalry literature, Streich analyzes two
periods of Sino- Japanese rivalry and the reasons for their ever- changing nature.
He looks both at how rivalry theory can help us to understand the relationship
between the two countries and how this relationship can in turn inform rivalry
theory. His results find that domestic politics and expected costs play a large role
in determining when each state decides when to escalate, de-e scalate, or maintain
the status quo.
This book is an essential guide to understanding the historical development
and contemporary status of the Sino- Japanese rivalry.
Philip Streich is currently serving as Associate Professor at Osaka University,
where he teaches and conducts research on politics and international relations.
He is the author of several articles on international relations and foreign policy
and the co-a uthor, with David Mislan, of Weird IR (2018). He has been teach-
ing since 2015 in the School of Human Sciences, a multidisciplinary, social
sciences- focused department located on Osaka’s Suita Campus. Dr. Streich has
also taught at Haverford College, Pomona College, and Rutgers University. He
earned his PhD in political science from Rutgers in 2010.
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The Ever- Changing
Sino- Japanese Rivalry
Philip Streich
First published 2019
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© 2019 Philip Streich
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Contents
Preface vi
List of figures and tables ix
List of abbreviations x
1 Rivalry in Sino- Japanese relations 1
2 Rivalry outbidding and expected costs 19
3 The Sino- Japanese rivalry in the 19th century 30
4 The Sino- Japanese rivalry in the early 20th century 53
5 The contemporary Sino- Japanese rivalry 86
6 Analysis and conclusion 122
Index 126
Preface
Why is the rivalry between China and Japan ever- changing? The rivalry may
remain a rivalry as long as the two states consider each other competitors and
have a territorial dispute between them, but if we look within their state of
rivalry, we can see that there are ebbs and flows between escalatory acts that
build tensions on the one hand and periods of stability and de- escalation marked
by attempts at cooperation on the other. In the first decade of the 21st century,
China and Japan were negotiating a joint resource exploitation pact for the East
China Sea. Within a few years, however, their Senkaku/D iaoyu Islands dispute
blew up in their faces. In 2018, they are engaging once again in cooperative talks
and the two leaders, Abe Shinzō and Xi Jinping, appear to be having a budding
“bromance.” This can all change in the next year; it eventually will change again.
This is the nature of their ever- changing rivalry. Many rivalries are like this, actu-
ally. This book tries to explain why the two rivals choose to escalate, de- escalate,
or maintain the status quo with a generalizable theoretical argument that can also
be applied to other pairs of rivals.
This book has its origins in the heightened tensions of the Senkaku/D iaoyu
Island dispute in 2010 and 2012. Having spent the previous two years (2008–
2010) in Tokyo working on historically focused research, I was captivated by this
contemporary conflict in East Asian international relations in this dispute. First, it
was interesting to see how some things don’t change all that much. Countries still
fight over territory. Second and more importantly, however, seeing those strong
emotions and nationalist sentiments in the protests in China and Japan, I was
mystified at how people could get so worked up over a handful of worthless rocks
that none of them would ever visit. This got me started on exploring the ways in
which nationalism, irredentism, and territorial disputes mix together to overcome
rational decision- making and escalate disputes.
The more I read about public opinion in China and Japan, the more I came to
understand that the nationalists were not as important as they initially seemed.
In China, the government lets the people demonstrate when it wants. The gov-
ernment may even encourage the protestors by providing directions to protest
locations when it wants a good turnout. When the government doesn’t want
protests, it keeps them from happening. In Japan, the protesters are typically just
a small, vocal minority who can pull in more people for big protests only when
Preface vii
there is a big, controversial event to which the news media devotes coverage. At
all other times, the governments mostly just ignore these people. Essentially, the
leaders use and ignore the loudmouths as they deem convenient.
Realizing this, I was still drawn to the dynamic relationship between China
and Japan. Having conducted research into their 19th century relationship,
I knew the reprisal of this antagonistic relationship in the contemporary era was
something worth exploring. There was a clear link to the past in the Senkaku/
Diaoyu dispute. Linking the Sino- Japanese relationship to the rivalry literature
was inspired by one of my old colleagues at Rutgers University, Jon DiCicco.
Could the rivalry literature hold the answers to my driving questions about China
and Japan?
As I dove into the rivalry literature, and simultaneously continued digging
through the East Asian studies literature on Sino-J apanese relations and Chi-
nese and Japanese foreign policies, I was puzzled to find that there was no link
between these two literatures. In my estimation, the Sino- Japanese rivalry is one
of the most prominent contemporary rivalries, yet the East Asian studies litera-
ture never cites the rivalry literature. Likewise, the rivalry literature pays very little
attention overall to East Asia. That’s where I spotted the gap that this book tries
to fill.
Returning to my concerns about leaders and public opinion, I was concerned
that I would not find anything theoretical in the rivalry literature that touched
upon the effect of domestic politics on rivalries. Even while dismissing the influ-
ence of the nationalists, I still understood that the fact that they were listened
to sometimes was important. This is when I came upon Michael Colaresi’s 2005
book, Scare Tactics, which is one of the better theory- focused rivalry books out
there. Colaresi centers on how domestic politics relates to international rivalries,
influencing leaders to escalate a rivalry when there are domestic political oppo-
nents who might outflank the leader otherwise. Colaresi’s book is also worth-
while because it focuses on the conduct of the rivalry, not on the beginning or
the end of the rivalry as most of the literature does.
My work on the rivalry initially started with the Senkaku/ Diaoyu case, but
before long it stretched back to the 1990s. Knowing how important history is in
the region, I felt I could not properly describe the contemporary rivalry if I did
not also cover the first Sino-J apanese rivalry in the late 19th and early 20th cen-
turies. So the project kept getting bigger until it became this book. I hope you
like it.
Earlier versions of this project were presented at ISA Hong Kong, Ritsumeikan
APU’s Asia Pacific Conference, and at Aoyama Gakuin University. My gratitude
goes out to all who participated in these talks and gave me suggestions. I would
like to especially thank the following people: Jitsuo Tsuchiyama, to whom I am
eternally grateful for hosting my research stint at Aoyama Gakuin University
(2008–2010) and for providing comments on a couple of chapters of this book at
a seminar there; William Thompson, for comments given on chapters at the same
seminar at Aogaku; Kentaro Sakuwa, for setting up the talk at Aogaku and for
your advice; David B. Mislan, my frequent collaborator, for general suggestions
viii Preface
and support; Hide Sakai, my fellow Kansai area scholar who has lent me much
moral support and advice over the years; Yoichiro Sato, for hosting talks at Rit-
sumeikan APU and handing out wise advice; Yoneyuki Sugita, my fellow Osaka
University scholar, for all the conferences and travel support; Jon DiCicco, for
getting me onto the rivalry literature long ago; and, finally, the two anonymous
reviewers for the very apt comments on the proposal for this book. I especially
thank one of those reviewers for the title suggestion, which set me on a course
correction that resulted in the final product. Of course, no one is at fault for any
errors in the book but myself.
A final thank- you is due to my wife, Nana, and our two children, Joe and
Selina, for having to bear with my late nights and distracted attitude over the last
half- year.
Philip Streich
Osaka, February 2019
Figures and Tables
Figures
2.1 Rivalry outbidding and public opinion 23
5.1 Military spending, 1995–2017 (in billions of 2016 USD) 99
Tables
2.1 The summary of Colaresi’s model 24
2.2 The revised model 25
3.1 Predictions of the dependent variable, 1874–1895 42
3.2 Performance of the model, 1874–1895 51
4.1 Predictions of the dependent variable, 1896–1926 63
4.2 Performance of the model, 1896–1926 69
4.3 Predictions of the dependent variable, 1927–1937 73
4.4 Performance of the model, 1927–1937 82
5.1 Predictions of the dependent variable, 1997–2009 99
5.2 Performance of the model, 1997–2009 106
5.3 Predictions of the dependent variable, 2010–2018 108
5.4 Performance of the model, 2010–2018 115