The Energy Report - WWF-India

272 Pages·2013·3 MB·English

by  Kirpal Singh

THE ENERGY REPORT – KERALA
100% RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050
©WWF-India & WISE 2013
Published by WWF-India & WISE
Reproduction is authorized, provided the source is acknowledged, save where
otherwise stated.
Acknowledgements
WWF-India and WISE are extremely grateful to all the individual experts and
specialists for providing useful inputs and insights during the preparation of
this report. Special thanks are due to Dr M. P. Parameshwaran, Dr Latha
Anantha, Prof R. V. G. Menon, Prof V. K. Damodaran, Mr Jaigopal Rao, Dr
Thomas Issac, Prof K. V. Thomas, and Mr C. R. Neelkanthan for providing
their useful inputs and insights. We are grateful to Mr G. Vijayraghavan,
Member, State Planning Board, Mr C. P. John, Member, State Planning Board
and Mr M. Sivasankar, Chairman, Kerala State Electricity Board, for their
valuable inputs and suggestions. Special acknowledgements are due to
Mr C. V. Prakashan and Mr Abhay Sidhham for their contribution. We also
acknowledge the contributions and suggestions made by key representatives
from the government and private sectors, civil society organizations, and
academic institutions. Finally, our sincere thanks to Mr G. M. Pillai, Founder
Director General, WISE, for his able guidance and leadership in steering the
research in the right direction and his sound expertise in holistically shaping
the report. We would like to thank Mr Ravi Singh, Secretary General and CEO,
WWF-India for his constant support and encouragement. The support by the
Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD) and WWF-Norway
is also duly acknowledged.
Project Team
WISE
Project Lead: Suhas Tendulkar
Project Reviewer:Sanjeev Ghotge
Project Team:Rajendra Kharul, Sudhir Kumar,
Surendra Pimperkhedkar, Satadru Chakraborty, Nandkishor Dhakate,
Debarshi Gupta, Raiju John, Rohit Bhide, Salil Joglekar
WWF-India:
Sejal Worah, T. S. Panwar, Renjan Mathew Varghese, Jincy Joy
Disclaimer
This report has been jointly prepared by WWF-India and WISE with inputs
based on publicly available information and information gathered from
different organizations. WWF-India and WISE disclaim any and all liability for
the use that may be made of the information contained in this report. The
external boundary and coastline of India or any state of India as depicted in
the maps in this report are not to scale. Further, the views in the document do
not necessarily reflect those of NORAD or WWF-Norway.
Designed by:Sarita Singh, Nirmal Singh
Photo Credit:Cover photo - Vishaish Uppal / WWF-India
The Energy Report – Kerala:
100% Renewable Energy by 2050
CONTENTS
Acknowledgements................................................................................................. ii
List of Tables........................................................................................................... v
List of Figures......................................................................................................... ix
List of Abbreviations............................................................................................... xi
Executive Summary................................................................................................ 1
PART I Introduction................................................................................................................ 6
1. Introduction and Overview...................................................................................... 7
2. Brief Overview of Current Status of the State’s Energy & Energy Related Sectors... 13
PART II The Context, General Objectives and Principles of RE Potential Assessment........................... 34
3. Solar Energy Potential in Kerala.............................................................................. 41
4. Wind Power Potential in Kerala.............................................................................. 57
5. Potential of Sustainable Bioenergy.......................................................................... 65
6. Hydro Potential of the State.................................................................................... 97
7. Ocean Energy Potential of the State........................................................................ 101
8. Summary of Renewable Potential Assessment........................................................ 105
PART III 100% RE for Kerala..................................................................................... 106
9. State Energy Demand Projections: The BAU Scenario............................................ 107
10. Towards 100% RE: The Curtailed Demand Scenario............................................... 157
11. Towards 100% RE: Overview of Supply Potential.................................................... 191
12. The 100% RE Scenario............................................................................................ 195
PART IV Strategic Interventions for Transition................................................................. 206
13. Policy Considerations for the Transition................................................................. 207
14. State Investment Considerations for the Transition................................................ 219
15. Conclusion............................................................................................... 229
Appendix 1.............................................................................................. 233
Appendix 2.............................................................................................. 238
Bibliography............................................................................................. 243

LIST OF TABLES
Table Title Page
A Summary of RE Potential of Kerala 2
B Energy Demand for the BAU Scenario 3
C Energy Demand for the Curtailed Demand Scenario 4
1.1 Focus Sectors for Demand Estimation 8
1.2 Elaboration of End-use Activities and Identified Interventions for Focus Sectors 8
2.1 Growth in Installed Capacity in Kerala (Year-wise) 13
2.2 Installed Capacity as on 31 October 2012 14
2.3 Break-up of Hydro Capacity in the State 15
2.4 Key Operational Statistics of KSEB 15
2.5 Energy Consumption Profile for Various Sectors Across Years (All values in MU) 16
2.6 Agency-wise Distribution of Road Length in Kerala in 2010-11 19
2.7 Number of Vehicles per 1,000 Persons 20
2.8 Area and Production of Principal Crops in Kerala 23
2.9 Key Manufacturing Units in Kerala in Different Manufacturing Sectors 24
2.10 Designated Large Industrial Consumers in Kerala 25
II.1 Miscellaneous Datasets 36
II.2 Buffer Values for Features 38
II.3 Land-use Categorization for Wind Power Potential Assessment 39
II.4 Land-use Categorization for Grid-tied Solar Power Potential Assessment 39
3.1 Land-use Categorization for Grid-tied Solar Power Potential Assessment 41
3.2 Assumptions for GIS- and MCA-based Solar Potential Assessment for Kerala 42
3.3 Solar PV Potential Areas for Different Land Use Categories (in MW) 45
3.4 CSP Potential Areas for Different Land Use Categories (in MW) 48
3.5 Solar Resource Analysis for Kerala (District-wise) 50
3.6 Decentralized Rooftop PV Power Potential in Kerala Households 51
3.7 Decentralized Rooftop PV Power Potential in Institutional / Commercial Establishments 51
3.8 Assessment of Solar Water Heating Potential for Households 52
3.9 Summary of Solar Power Potential 54
4.1 Land-use Categorization for Wind Power Potential Assessment 57
4.2 Assumptions for GIS- and MCA-based Wind Potential Assessment for Kerala 58
4.3 Onshore Wind Potential across Different Land Use Categories (80m) 61
4.4 Basis for Re-categorizing Offshore Wind Potential 61
4.5 Offshore Wind Potential at 80m (Break-up based on WPD) 62
4.6 Results of Wind Potential Assessment at 80m Hub Height 63
4.7 Land Impact Assessment for Developing 100 per cent of Assessed Wind Potential at 80m 64
5.1 Biomass Classification 65
5.2 Life Cycle and Residue Generation for Major Crops in Kerala 66
5.3 Estimation of Rice Straw and Rice Husk Availability 67
5.4 Estimation of Coconut Frond Availability 69
5.5 Estimation of Primary Rubber Wood Availability 70
5.6 Estimation of Acrea Nut Husk Availability 71
5.7 Estimation of Tapioca Stalks Availability 72
5.8 Estimation of Rice Husk Availability 73
v
Table Title Page
5.9 Estimation of Cashew Apple Availability 75
5.10 Area Covered by Different Forest Types in Kerala 77
5.11 Estimation of Forest Wood Availability 78
5.12 Estimation of MSW Availability 79
5.13 Bioenergy Resources in Kerala: A Summary 80
5.14 Technology Variant and Feedstock Options in Kerala 82
5.15 Power Generation Potential through Gasification 83
5.16 Power Generation Potential through Combustion-based Technologies 84
5.17 Combustion Based Heat Potential of Biomass Residues 85
5.18 Biogas Potential in Kerala 87
5.19 Bio-crude Potential from Agro-residues 89
5.20 Bio-diesel Potential from Wood Residues 89
5.21 Sea Algae Based Biofuel Potential 93
5.22 Summary of Biofuels Availability 93
5.23 Total Biofuel Potential in Kerala 93
5.24 Summary of Biomass Residues Used 94
5.25 Final Sustainable Bioenergy Potential 95
6.1 Major Irrigation Schemes in Kerala 98
7.1 Wave Power in kW/m along the Indian Coast for Areas Shown in Figure 7.1 102
7.2 Average Wave Power in kW/m off the Kerala Coast 103
8.1 Summary of RE potential in Kerala by 2050 105
9.1 Appliance Ownership Levels per 1,000 Households in Kerala 109
9.2 Appliance Numbers across Projection Period per 100 Households 111
9.3 Annual Unit Appliance Energy Consumption (UEC) 112
9.4 Estimated Domestic Electricity Demand up to 2050 112
9.5 Cooking Fuel Share Projections up to 2050 113
9.6 Estimated Demand for Cooking Fuels in the Domestic Sector 114
9.7 Estimated Final Energy Demand for the Domestic Sector up to 2050 114
9.8 Estimated Electricity Demand for the commercial sector up to 2050 115
9.9 Share of Sub-sectors in Total Commercial Electricity Demand 115
9.10 Usage Share of LPG and Kerosene in the Commercial Sector (All India) 116
9.11 Estimated Total Commercial Sector Energy Demand up to 2050 117
9.12 Categorization of Industry Sub-sectors 118
9.13 Estimated Electricity Demand for Industry Sector up to 2050 119
9.14 Percentage Share of Electricity Consumption across Industry Sub-sectors 119
9.15 Fuels Used across Industry Sub-sectors in Kerala 121
9.16 Heat Requirements across Industry Sub-sectors 122
9.17 Estimated Energy Demand for Industries up to 2050 122
9.18 Area, Production and Productivity of Principal Crops in Kerala 123
9.19 Historical Agricultural Demand for Electricity 123
9.20 Estimated Electricity Demand for Agriculture 124
9.21 On-road Tractor Population 125
9.22 Estimated Energy Demand for Agriculture up to 2050 126
9.23 Estimated Electricity Demand for Public Utilities and Bulk Customers 126
9.24 Estimated Total Energy Demand for Public Utilities and Bulk 127
9.25 Estimated On-road Stage Carriage Bus Numbers 129
9.26 Estimated Passenger Traffic for Stage Carriages 130
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Table Title Page
9.27 Energy Intensities of Technologies for Stage Carriages 130
9.28 Estimated Number of On-road Contract Carriages 131
9.29 Estimated Passenger Traffic Volume for Contract Carriages 132
9.30 Energy Intensities of Technologies for Contract Carriages 132
9.31 Estimated On-road Car Population 133
9.32 Estimated Car Passenger Traffic 134
9.33 Energy Intensities of Technologies for Cars 134
9.34 Estimated Taxi Car Population 135
9.35 Estimated Passenger Traffic for Taxi Cars 136
9.36 Energy Intensities of Technologies for Taxi Cars 136
9.37 Estimated On-road Jeep Population 137
9.38 Estimated Passenger Traffic for Jeeps 138
9.39 Energy Intensities of Technologies for Jeeps 138
9.40 Estimated On-road Rickshaw Population 139
9.41 Estimated Passenger Traffic for Auto Rickshaws 140
9.42 Energy Intensities of Rickshaw Technologies 140
9.43 Estimated On-road Two-wheeler Population 141
9.44 Estimated Two-wheeler Passenger Traffic 141
9.45 Energy Intensities of Two-wheeler Technologies 142
9.46 Estimated Rail Passenger Traffic 143
9.47 Energy Intensities of Rail Modes 143
9.48 Estimated Water Passenger Traffic 144
9.49 Estimated Air Passenger Volume 145
9.50 Estimated On-road HCVs and LCVs Population 147
9.51 Estimated Freight Traffic for HCVs and LCVs 148
9.52 Energy Intensities of Technologies for HCVs 148
9.53 Energy Intensities of Technologies for LCVs 149
9.54 Estimated Rail Freight traffic 150
9.55 Energy Intensities of Rail Mode 150
9.56 Estimated Water-based Freight Traffic 152
9.57 Estimated Air Freight Traffic 152
9.58 Transport Sector Energy Demand (PJ) 153
9.59 Transport Fuel Demand for BAU Scenario 153
9.60 Final Energy Demand (BAU Scenario) 153
9.61 Energy Demand by Fuel Source (BAU Scenario) 154
9.62 Energy Demand by Fuel Carriers (BAU Scenario) 154
10.1 Energy Intensity Comparison between 5 star and SEA 159
10.2 Energy Demand Reduction through Three Step Interventions in the Domestic Sector 161
10.3 Energy Intensity Reductions through Appliance Share Shifts 164
10.4 Energy Demand Reduction through Three Step Interventions in the Commercial Sector 165
10.5 Energy Intensity Reduction Potential in Industry Sector 172
10.6 Assessed Energy Intensity Reduction Potential for Selected Industry Sectors 172
10.7 Energy Demand Reduction through Three Step Interventions in the Industry Sector 173
10.8 Energy Demand Reduction through Three Step Interventions in Agricultural 175
10.9 Energy Demand Reduction through Three Step Interventions in Public Utilities and Bulk 177
10.10 Modal Share in BAU Scenario 180
10.11 Proposed Inter-modal Shift 182
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Table Title Page
10.12 Road Passenger Intra-modal Share in BAU Scenario 182
10.13 Proposed Intra-modal Share for Road Passenger Traffic 183
10.14 Proposed Efficiency-based Technology Share 184
10.15 Proposed All Electric Vehicle penetration 186
10.16 Energy Demand Reduction through Three Step Interventions in the Transport Sector 186
10.17 Final Curtailed Sectoral Demand (PJ) 187
10.18 Final Energy Reduction Evolution through Three Step Intervention 188
10.19 Final Curtailed Energy Demand by Energy Sources 188
10.20 Final Curtailed Energy Demand by Energy Carriers 189
11.1 Estimated Grid-tied Wind Power Potential at 80m 192
11.2 Assessed Energy Availability from Wind Power 192
11.3 Estimated Grid-tied and Off-grid Solar PV Potential 193
11.4 Assessed Energy Availability from Solar Power 193
11.5 Estimated Bio-energy Potential 193
11.6 Assessed Energy Availability from Large and Small Hydro 193
11.7 Assessed Energy Availability from Wave Power 194
11.8 Assessed Total Energy Availability 194
12.1 Energy Demand Requirements and Supply Potential 195
12.2 Total Electricity Requirements after Including T&D Losses 196
12.3 Electrical Energy Availability from RE Sources 198
12.4 Derivation of National and Regional Electricity Demand 199
12.5 Electricity: Supply Allocation of Generating Sources 200
12.6 Demand Requirement and Supply Potential of Transport Fuels 201
12.7 Assessed Final Fuel Supply Share 201
12.8 Demand Requirement and Supply Potential of heat fuels 202
12.9 Total Heat Supply Potential of Surplus Biofuels 203
12.10 Assessed Final Supply Share Heating Fuels 203
12.11 Final Supply Scenario by Energy Supply Sources 204
14.1 State Investment Requirements for Port’s Infrastructure 220
14.2 State Investment Requirements for Public Transport Infrastructure 221
14.3 Assessment of State Sector Investment Requirements in Public Buildings 222
14.4 State Level Investment Requirements in Buildings 223
14.5 CAPEX and OPEX Assumptions for RE Technologies 223
14.6 State Level Investment Requirements for Developing RE Pilots 224
14.7 State Level Investment Requirements for Agriculture 224
14.8 State Level Investment Requirements for Solar Street Lighting 226
14.9 Summary of State Sector Investment Requirements for the Transition 228
A1.1 Decadal Increase in Population and Percentage Decrease in Increase of 235
Population from 1961 to 2011
A1.2 Decadal Population and Decadal Increase in Population from 2011 to 2051 235
A1.3 CAGR for Population Growth over the Years 2010-11 to 2050-51 236
A2.1 CAGR of Number of Households per Thousand Households for Using Different 238
Domestic Appliances
viii
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Title Page
A Supply Sources for Final Energy Scenario 1
B Sectoral Energy Demand Projections (BAU Scenario) 4
C Sectoral Energy Demand Projections (Curtailed Demand Scenario) 5
1.1 Derivation of Curtailed Demand in Terms of Energy Carriers 9
1.2 Aggregating Total Demand for all Sectors in Terms of Energy Carriers 9
1.3 Political Map of Kerala: Districts 11
1.4 Physical Map of Kerala 12
2.1 Consumer category-wise breakup of electricity consumption in 2011-12 17
2.2 Dams in Kerala 27
2.3 Rivers and Lakes of Kerala 28
II.1 Permanent Exclusions 37
3.1 Criteria and Methodology Adopted for CSP Potential Assessment 42
3.2 Criteria and Methodology Adopted for Solar PV Potential Assessment 42
3.3 GIS Base Resource Layers for Solar PV Potential Analysis 43
3.4 Potential of Solar PV – Grassland 44
3.5 Potential of Solar PV – Wasteland 45
3.6 GIS Base Resource Layers for Solar CSP Potential Analysis 46
3.7 Wasteland Based Potential of CSP 47
3.8 Grassland Based Potential of CSP – 2 48
4.1 Criteria and Methodology for Assessing Wind Power Potential 58
4.2 Re-categorization Criteria for Onshore Wind 59
4.3 Preliminary Methodology for Wind Potential at 80m (Farmland) 60
4.4 Potential of Wind Power at 80m for Farmland, No Farmland and Plantations 60
4.5 Offshore Wind Power Potential Areas 62
4.6 Potential Wind Areas in Palakkad and Idukki 63
5.1 Net Wood Waste Availability from Rubber, Coconut and Areca-Nut Plantations in Kerala 76
5.2 Net Availability of Major Forestry Residues between 2000 and 2009 in Kerala 77
5.3 Power Generation Potential through Gasification 82
5.4 Power Generation Potential through Combustion-based Technologies 84
5.5 Heat Generation Potential using Biogas in Kerala 87
5.6 Biofuels Potential 94
7.1 Map Showing Different Zones for which Wave Power Potential was Estimated 102
9.1 Total Sector-wise Energy Demand for BAU Scenario 153
9.2 Energy Demand by Fuel Carriers 154
10.1 Energy Demand Reduction through Three Step Interventions in the Domestic Sector 162
ix
Figure Title Page
10.2 Energy Demand Reduction through Three Step Interventions in the Commercial Sector 164
10.3 Energy Demand Reduction through Three Step Interventions in the Industry Sector 173
10.4 Energy Demand Reduction through Three Step Interventions in Agricultural 176
10.5 Energy Demand Reduction through Three Step Interventions in Public Utilities and Bulk 177
10.6 Energy Demand Reduction through Three Step Interventions in the Transport Sector 187
10.7 Final Curtailed Sectoral Demand 187
10.8 Final Energy Reduction Evolution through Three Step Intervention 188
10.9 Final Curtailed Energy Demand by Energy Sources 189
10.10 Electricity, Heat and Fuel Demand in PJ for the Curtailed Scenario 189
12.1 Final Supply Share of Transport Fuels 201
12.2 Final Supply Share of Heating Fuels 203
12.3 Final Energy Supply Scenario by Energy Supply Sources 205
14.1 Summary of State Investment Requirements 227
15.1 Potential of Demand Curtailment 229
15.2 Final Supply Share of Fuels (PJ) 230
15.3 State Investment Requirements 230
A1.1 Yearly Population of Kerala 236
x