The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life

360 Pages·1989·38.093 MB·English

by  Gerd Gigerenzer, Zeno Swijtink, Theodore Porter, Lorraine Daston, John Beatty, Lorenz Kruger

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© Cambridge University Press 1989
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 1989
Reprinted 1990, 1993, 1995, 1997
A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data
The Empire of chance : how probability changed science and everyday
life / Gerd Gigerenzer . . . [et al.].
p. cm. – (Ideas in context)
Bibliography.
Includes index.
ISBN 0-521-33115-3
1. Probabilities. 2. Mathematical statistics. 3. Science –
Philosophy. I. Gigerenzer, Gerd. II. Series.
QA273.E57 1989 88-16928 CIP
isbn 978-0-521-33115-9 Hardback
isbn 978-0-521-39838-1 Paperback
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CONTENTS
Acknowledgments page xi
Introduction xiii
1 Classical probabilities, 1660-1840 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 The beginnings 2
1.3 The classical interpretation 6
1.4 Determinism 11
1.5 Reasonableness 14
1.6 Risk in gambling and insurance 19
1.7 Evidence and causes 26
1.8 The moral sciences 32
1.9 Conclusion 34
2 Statistical probabilities, 1820-1900 37
2.1 Introduction 37
2.2 Statistical regularity and l'homme moyen 38
2.3 Opposition to statistics 45
2.4 Statistics and variation 48
2.5 The error law and correlation 53
2.6 The statistical critique of determinism 59
2.7 Conclusion 68
3 The inference experts 70
3.1 In want of a "system of mean results" 70
3.2 Analysis of variance 73
1111
11111 Contents
3.3 Fisher's antecedents: early significance tests and com- 79
parative experimentation
3.4 The controversy: Fisher vs. Neyman and Pearson 90
3.5 Hybridization: the silent solution 106
3.6 The statistical profession: intellectual autonomy 109
3.7 The statistical profession: institutions and influence 115
3.8 Conclusion 120
4 Chance and life: controversies in modem biology 123
4.1 Introduction 123
4.2 Spontaneity and control: chance in physiology 124
4.3 Coincidence and design: chance in natural history 132
4.4 Correlations and causes: chance in genetics 141
4.5 Sampling and selection: chance in evolutionary biology 152
5 The probabilistic revolution in physics 163
5.1 The background: classical physics 163
5.2 Probability in classical physics: the epistemic 166
interpretation
5.3 Three limitations of classical physics: sources of 170
probabilism
5.4 Comments on the three limitations 175
5.5 Mass phenomena and propensities 179
5.6 Explanations from probabilistic assumptions 182
5.7 The puzzle of irreversibility in time 187
5.8 The discontinuity underlying all change 190
6 Statistics of the mind 203
6.1 Introduction 203
6.2 The pre-statistical period 204
6.3 The new tools 205
6.4 From tools to theories of mind 211
6.5 A case study: from thinking to judgments under 214
uncertainty
6.6 The return of the reasonable man 226
6.7 Conclusion 233