The Elusive Quest for Growth in Argentina

229 Pages·2007·0.92 MB·English

by  Daniel Chudnovsky

THE ELUSIVE QUEST FOR GROWTH
IN ARGENTINA
Other Books by Daniel Chudnovsky
Empresas Multinacionales y Ganancias Monopólicas en una Economía
Latinoamericana.
Capital Goods Production in the Third World. An Economic Study of
Technology Acquisition.
Las Economías de Argentina e Italia. Situación actual y perspectivas de asociación.
Transnational Corporations and Industrialization.
¿Por qué Sucedió? Las causas económicas de la reciente crisis argentina.
El Desafio de Integrarse para Crecer. Balance y perspectivas del
MERCOSUR en su primera década.
Other Books by Daniel Chudnovsky and Andrés López
Los Transgénicos en la Agricultura Argentina. Una historia con final abierto.
La Transnacionalización de la Economía Argentina.
El Boom de Inversión Extranjera Directa en el MERCOSUR.
Investimentos Externos no MELCOSUL.
Las Multinacionales Latinoamericanas. Sus estrategias en el mundo
globalizado.
Auge y Ocaso del Capitalismo Asistido. La industria petroquímica
latinoamericana.
Los Límites de la Apertura. Liberalización, reestructuración productiva
y medio ambiente.
THE ELUSIVE QUEST FOR
GROWTH IN ARGENTINA
Daniel Chudnovsky
and
Andrés López
THEELUSIVEQUESTFORGROWTHINARGENTINA
© Daniel Chudnovsky and Andrés López, 2007
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2007 ISBN 978-1-4039-7789-2
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any
manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief
quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews.
First published in 2007 by
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Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India.
First edition: May 2007
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
ISBN 978-1-349-53790-7 ISBN 978-0-230-60427-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780230604278
To the memory of Daniel Chudnovsky.
A prominent economist, an inspiring educator, and a close friend
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CONTENTS
List of Tables ix
List of Figures xi
List of Abbreviations xiii
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xvii
Chapter 1 Introduction: The End of Panaceas;
from the Postwar Consensus to the
Post–Washington Consensus 1
Chapter 2 Argentina’s Economy in a
Long-Term View 17
Chapter 3 The Import-Substitution Industrialization,
1962–1974 33
Chapter 4 The Long Recession, 1975–1990 55
Chapter 5 Structural Reforms and Complementary Policies
during the 1990s 65
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Performance
during Convertibility “High Growth” Years 87
Chapter 7 The Microeconomics of Industrial Restructuring
during the Convertibility Era 109
Chapter 8 From Crisis to Recovery, 1998–2006 135
Chapter 9 Conclusions and Policy Implications 161
Notes 179
Bibliography 197
Index 215
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LIST OF TABLES
2.1 Employment sectoral distribution, 1895–2001,
percentages 19
2.2 Argentina’s GDP per capita, 1962–2005 20
2.3 Argentina’s labor productivity—GDP per hour
worked—as a percentage of labor productivity
in other countries, 1950–1998 20
2.4 Productivity and GDP growth, 1962–1998,
annual percentage rates 21
2.5 Trends in perceived corruption, 1980–2001 26
3.1 Legal tariff rates, 1959–1997, percentages 34
3.2 Indicators of socio-political protest, 1956–1972 35
3.3 Annual growth rates of physical volume of production,
number of workers and labor productivity in the
manufacturing industry, 1962–1998 39
4.1 Argentine industrial labor productivity relative
to the U.S. levels, 1970–2000 61
4.2 Argentine exports, 1980–2000, current US$ million,
five-year averages 61
5.1 Estimates of the effective tariff protection levels,
1991 and 1997, in percentages 69
5.2 Average S&T and R&D expenditures
as a percentage of GDP 85
6.1 Evolution of the public sector fiscal surplus (% GDP) 89
6.2 Changes in the relative share of different
industrial sectors, 1970–1996 94
6.3 Net schooling rates, 1980–1997 100
6.4 First-level university graduates, 1990 and
1999, percentages 103
6.5 Share of employment by educational group,
1980–1998 105
6.6 Hourly wages by educational group,
Greater Buenos Aires, 1980–1998, in dollars 105