The Effects ofTaxation on Capital Accumulation A National Bureau ofEconomic Research Project Report The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation Martin Feldstein Edited by The University ofChicago Press Chicago andLondon MartinFeldsteinis the George F. BakerProfessorofEconomics atHarvard Universityand Presidentofthe National Bureauof EconomicResearch. The University ofChicagoPress, Chicago60637 The UniversityofChicagoPress, Ltd., London © 1987by the National BureauofEconomicResearch All rights reserved. Published 1987 Printedinthe United StatesofAmerica 96 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 5 4 3 2 LibraryofCongress Cataloging-in-PublicationData The Effectsoftaxationoncapitalaccumulation. (A National BureauofEconomicResearchproject report) Bibliography: p. Includesindex. 1. Taxation. 2. Savingand investment. I. Feldstein, Martin S. II. Series. HJ2305.E29 1987 332'.0415 86-25025 ISBN0-226-24088-6 National Bureau ofEconomic Research Officers FranklinA. Lindsay, Chairman Geoffrey Carliner, Executive Director Richard N. Rosett, Vice Chairman Charles A. Walworth, Treasurer Martin Feldstein, PresidentandChief Sam Parker, DirectorofFinance and Executive Officer Administration Directors at Large Moses Abramovitz George Hatsopoulos PeterG. Peterson Andrew Brimmer WalterW. Heller Robert V. Roosa Carl F. Christ Saul B. Klaman Richard N. Rosett GeorgeT. Conklin, Jr. FranklinA. Lindsay BertSeidman Jean A. Crockett Roy E. Moor Eli Shapiro Morton Ehrlich Geoffrey H. Moore Stephen Stamas Martin Feldstein Michael H. Moskow Donald S. Wasserman Edward L. Ginzton James J. O'Leary Marina v.N. Whitman David L. Grove Robert T. Parry Directors by University Appointment Marcus Alexis, Northwestern Andrew Postlewaite, Pennsylvania Charles H. Berry, Princeton Nathan Rosenberg, Stanford James Duesenberry, Harvard James Simler, Minnesota Ann F. Friedlaender, Massachusetts James Tobin, Yale Institute ofTechnoLogy John Vernon, Duke J. C. LaForce, CaLifornia, LosAngeLes William S. Vickrey, Columbia Paul McCracken, Michigan BurtonA. Weisbrod, Wisconsin James L. Pierce, CaLifornia, BerkeLey Arnold Zellner, Chicago Directors by Appointment ofOther Organizations EdgarFiedler, NationaLAssociationof Rudolph A. Oswald, American BusinessEconomists Federation ofLaborandCongress of Robert S. Hamada, American Finance Industrial Organizations Association Douglas D. Purvis, Canadian Economics Robert C. Holland, Committeefor Association EconomicDevelopment AlbertT. Sommers, The Conference James Houck, AmericanAgricultural Board Economics Association Dudley Wallace, American Statistical David Kendrick, AmericanEconomic Association Association Charles A. Walworth, American Institute Douglass C. North, Economic History ofCertifiedPublicAccountants Association Directors Emeriti ArthurF. Burns FrankW. Fetter George B. Roberts EmilioG. Collado ThomasD. Flynn Willard L. 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(ResolutionadoptedOctober25,1926,asrevisedthroughSeptember30, 1974) Contents Acknowledgments xi Introduction Martin Feldstein 1. IRAs and Saving 7 Steven F. Venti and David A. Wise Comment: Angus Deaton 2. Consumer Spending and the After-Tax Real Interest Rate 53 N. Gregory Mankiw Comment: Laurence J. Kotlikoff 3. Capital Gains Rates, Realizations, and Revenues 69 Lawrence B. Lindsey Comment: John H. Makin 4. The Effects ofTax Rules on Nonresidential Fixed Investment: Some Preliminary Evidence from the 1980s 101 Martin Feldstein and Joosung Jun Comment: Roger H. Gordon 5. Anticipated Tax Changes and the Timing ofInvestment 163 Alan J. Auerbach and James R. Hines, Jr. Comment: Andrew B. Abel vii viii Contents 6. New Results on the Effects ofTax Policy on the International Location ofInvestment 201 Michael J. Boskin and William G. Gale Comment: David G. Hartman 7. Notes on the Tax Treatment ofStructures 223 Roger H. Gordon, James R. Hines Jr., and Lawrence H. Summers Comment: Emil M. Sunley 8. Tax Changes and Capital Allocation in the 1980s 259 Patrie H. Hendershott Comment: Harvey S. Rosen 9. Investment Incentives and the Discounting ofDepreciation Allowances 295 Lawrence H. Summers 10. Tax Loss Carryforwards and Corporate Tax Incentives 305 Alan J. Auerbach and James M. Poterba Comment: David F. Bradford 11. Tax Asymmetries and Corporate Tax Reform 343 Saman Majd and Stewart C. Myers Comment: Joseph E. Stiglitz 12. The Cash Flow Corporate Income Tax 377 Mervyn A. King Comment: Daniel Feenberg 13. The Impact ofFundamental Tax Reform on the Allocation ofResources 401 Don Fullerton and Yolanda Kodrzycki Henderson Comment: J. Gregory Ballentine 14. The Value-Added Tax: A General Equilibrium Look at Its Efficiency and Incidence 445 Charles L. Ballard, John Karl Scholz, and John B. Shoven Comment: Harvey Galper List ofContributors 481 Author Index 485 Subject Index 487 Acknowledgments Thisvolumebringstogetherfourteen papersthatwerepreparedas part ofan ongoing study ofthe effects oftaxation on capital accumulation thatis beingcarriedoutat the NationalBureauofEconomicResearch. Takenasawhole, thesestudiesshowthatcurrenttaxrulesandchanges in tax rules have powerful effects on business investment in plant and equipment, on personal saving, and on the realization ofcapital gains. The NBER research on taxation and capital accumulation has been discussedatregularmeetingsoftheBureau'staxprogramandatspecial meetings focused on this project. The papers included in this volume were presentedata conferenceon February 13-16, 1986. The remarks ofthe discussants at that conference are also included in this volume. The collaborative research presented here was made possible by continuing activities ofthe NBER's tax program. Several members of thatprogramcontributedtotheefforteventhoughtheydidnotprepare papers for this volume. The volume thus benefited from the general guidance oftax program director David F. Bradford. National Bureau Directors George T. Conklin, Jr., Ann F. Friedlaender, and J. Clay LaForce have reviewed the entire manuscript. National Bureau staff members Mark Fitz-Patrick, Deborah Mankiw, Kathi Smith, Annie Spillane, Gail Swett, and Kirsten Foss Daviscontributed to theoverall effort. ix