The Economist (December 21st 2019) Double Issue

105 Pages·2019·21.414 MB·English

by  The Economist

Britain’s new political geography
How to reduce homelessness
Boeing’s bet backfires
Our country of the year
DECEMBER21ST2019–JANUARY3RD2020
Christmas double issue
Gallivanting planets Displaced Cockneys The ironies of Siberia
Enigmatic eels Hot-metal type Liberal Ireland Essay: Beware the Borg
The $17bn chip factory Death-row sleuthing China’s pianists
Africa’s melting-pot Surrealism’s sorceress Our quiz
and much more...
Contents The EconomistDecember21st2019 5
The world this year Britain
8 Alook back at the 45 Tories in the north
political and business 46 Boris v the BBC
newsof2019
47 Rough sleeping
48 BagehotSecrets of the
Leaders
Tories’ success
13 Technology and society
Pessimism v progress
14 Boeing’s bet backfires Europe
Maxed out
49 Combating homelessness
14 British politics
50 Apple in Russia
Boris Johnson’s northern
51 Christian persecution
strategy
51 Turkey subsidises
16 Homelessness
organic tea
Christmas specials Mean streets
52 CharlemagneChristmas
24 Hot-metal printing 18 Country of the year
inFrance
Theimprovementprize
28 The death-row sleuth
31 The $17bn chip factory
United States
Letters
35 Enigmatic eels 53 The border wall
22 On purposeful firms,
38 China and the piano aircraft-carriers, dogs, 55 Gun control
41 Planets on the move ice-skating, Singapore, 55 Awin for au pairs
Oxford, “Macbeth”
58 Missile-testing
63 Essay: Beware the Borg
60 LexingtonFahrenheit
69 Africa’s melting-pot Wisconsin
72 Setting climbers’ routes
75 ACockney Brigadoon The Americas
78 Our Christmas quiz 61 Stable Venezuela
62 Canadian cannabis
109 Eucalyptus Road comes off a high
112 Leonora Carrington
115 Dubbing returns
119 The ironies of Siberia
123 Liberal Ireland
Middle East & Africa
82 Diplomacy in the Gulf
83 Mercy for Omar al-Bashir
84 Trying a warlord in Congo
84 Pachyderm-poo gin
BartlebyAn inspiring
holiday message from
Buck Passer, cheerleader
extraordinaire, page 97
1 Contents continues overleaf
6 Contents The EconomistDecember21st2019
Asia Finance & economics
85 America and North Korea 101 Wealth management for
the masses
86 Uzbekistan votes
87 Kangaroo carnage 102 Oil’s quarrelsome cartel
87 The future of Bougainville 103 US-China trade truce
103 Rattling supply chains
104 Free exchangeReadying
therepomarket
China
88 Minimum wages Science & technology
89 Political vloggers 126 Bringing rocks from Mars
90 ChaguanThe 127 Diagnosis by retinal scan
communism problem
128 COP25’s cop-out
International
91 Young people and Books & arts
the news
129 Chinese restaurants in
America
130 AJapanese murder
mystery
Business
95 Boeing going wrong Economic & financial indicators
96 Bytedancing with the 132 Statisticson42economies
state
96 China in Daimler Graphic detail
97 BartlebyEnd-of-year 133 Thenewsstoriesthatmostinterestedreaders in 2019
memo
98 California’s data sheriffs Obituary
99 Schumpeter The buzz 134 Stephen Cleobury, master of carols
around AirPods
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8 The world this year The EconomistDecember21st2019
that stopped America from bogeyman of British Brexi-
Iwear the chain I forged in life imposing more penalties. The teers, retired as president of
Protests against autocratic rule imfreckoned the trade dispute the European Commission
also broke out in other coun- could cost the global economy and was replaced by Ursula von
tries, leading to the ouster of $700bn. America restricted its der Leyen, who was the lon-
Omar al-Bashir in Sudanand companies from selling tech- gest-serving member of Angela
the resignation of Evo Morales nology to Huawei, a Chinese Merkel’s cabinet in Germany.
in Boliviaafter a contentious maker of telecoms equipment.
election there. Mass demon-
strations caused Ecuador’s Warnings about a slowing
government to reinstate fuel world economy were a consid-
subsidies and Chile’spresi- eration for the Federal Reserve
An attempt to amend Hong dent to promise a new consti- when it decided to cut interest
Kong’sextradition law tution. Algeria’soctogenarian ratesfor the first time since the
triggered the worst crisis in the leader, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, financial crisis. Two more
city since its handover to called it a day in the face of reductions followed. Mr
Chinain 1997. Amid concerns huge protests. Iraq’sprime Trump quarrelled openly with
that the changes could result in minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, the Fed for not cutting sooner,
dissident Hong Kongers facing did the same. But there was no calling it a “stubborn child”.
trial in mainland China, sign of Iran’smullahs loos-
millions took to the streets in ening their grip in response to The European Central Bank A horrified world watched on
what morphed into an ongoing people power. A crackdown on launched a new round of stim- tvas a fire destroyed the roof
pro-democracy movement, the protests there left as many as ulus, much to the chagrin of and some of the interior of
biggest challenge to the 450 people dead. the German finance minister. Notre Dame cathedralin
authority of China’s leaders It was one of Mario Draghi’s Paris.A vigorous debate en-
since the handover. The gov- The trade warbetween Ameri- last acts as ecbpresident be- sued about the extensive refur-
ernment in Beijing, which in ca and China rumbled on, fore handing over to Christine bishment works. The general
October staged huge celebra- deploying arsenals of tariffs. In Lagarde, who is launching only overseeing the rebuilding told
tions to mark 70 years of December both sides pulled the second strategic review of the chief architect to “shut his
communist rule, has warned back from the brink by reach- monetary policy at the ecb. mouth” for resisting a modern-
the protesters not to push it. ing a “phase one” agreement Jean-Claude Juncker, the ist plan to replace the spire. 1
The EconomistDecember21st2019 Theworldthisyear 9
president,declaringNicolás Aramco’sipotook place in
2It’s all humbug I tell you! Maduro’sregimetobeillegiti- Riyadh. It was the world’s
Two years in the making, the mate.MrGuaidówasrecog- largest ever, raising $25.6bn.
report into Russian meddling nisedby60WesternandLatin
in American politics was at last Americancountries,butMr Among the year’s big take-
completed by Robert Mueller. Maduroclingsontopower. overs, Occidental, supported
Donald Trump’s critics were by Warren Buffett, acquired
disappointed by a lack of evi- Anadarkofor $55bn. AbbVie
dence tying him to the Russian Dead as a doornail issued one of the biggest-ever
provocateurs. After all the fuss Iran moved further away from bond offers to finance its $83bn
over the Mueller report, it was the deal limiting its nuclear purchaseofAllergan.Andthe
Mr Trump’s request to Volody- activities, saying it would no LondonStockExchange
myr Zelensky, the Ukrainian longer abide by the agreement strucka$27bndealtobuy Mrs May crawled on as prime
president, to “do us a favour” unless the euprovided it with Refinitiv.FiatChryslerand minister until July. Her re-
and dig up dirt on the Bidens economic aid. Attacks on Peugeotagreedtomerge,after placement, Boris Johnson,
that led to impeachment commercial shipping and aproposedtieupbetweenFiat sparked a constitutional crisis
proceedings. Mr Zelensky won Saudi oil installations were andRenaulthittheskids. when he proroguedParlia-
office by trouncing Petro blamed on Iran. America sent mentin order to limit opposi-
Poroshenko in an election. more troops and weapons to tion manoeuvring on Brexit,
the region to deter Tehran. Boiled with her own pudding but the Supreme Court said
Some of the runners in the In January Theresa May’s hap- this was unlawful. Fed up
Democratic presidential race Long-awaited ipos from a host less government lost a crucial Britons trekked to the polls for
fell before reaching the first of tech unicorns turned out to vote on her Brexitwithdrawal yet another election, and gave
hurdle. Kamala Harris, one of be damp squibs, mostly. Uber’s agreement in the House of the Conservatives their biggest
the early favourites, pulled out was the biggest. Its share price Commons by 230 votes, the majority in 32 years. Mr John-
after spending all her money. went into reverse and is now largest government defeat on son took this as a mandate to
some 30% lower than on its record. It went downhill from “get Brexit done”.
In VenezuelaJuan Guaidó, the first day of trading. A spectac- there. Three requests were
leader of the opposition-con- ular fiasco at WeWorksaw it made to extend the Brexit Argentina’spresidential
trolled national assembly, pulling its ipoand being res- deadline, and Britain still election brought the Peronists
proclaimed himself interim cued by SoftBank. Saudi remained in the eu. back to power, when Alberto 1
10 The world this year The EconomistDecember21st2019
2Fernández defeated Mauricio Christchurch, New Zealand, Mr Trump was able to brag
Macri. Cristina Fernández de Mankind is my business was linked to a rise in global about one success: Abu Bakr
Kirchner became vice-presi- The Business Roundtable, white nationalism. Five al-Baghdadi, the murderous
dent, spooking investors who representing America’s top months later a gunman who rapist who led Islamic State,
remember her reckless spend- bosses, redefined the purpose murdered 22 people at a Wal- blew himself up when he was
ing when she was president. of a companyaway from mart in El Paso, Texas, was cornered by American forces.
shareholder primacy and influenced in part by the
In other elections Justin Tru- towards the interests of cus- Christchurch shootings.
deau’s Liberals were returned tomers, workersand commu- An undigested bit of beef
to power in Canada, but with a nities. Mark Zuckerberg pro- In Sri Lankaa series of bomb- Although vegetarian food
minority government follow- claimed “a privacy-focused ings on Easter Sunday targeted seemed to be offered every-
ing a political scandal. The first vision for social networking”. Christians and tourists, killing where in 2019, Greggs, a pur-
election in Thailandsince the But Facebook’sboss found 253 people. A claim that the veyor of cheap bakery treats in
coup in 2014 saw pro-military himself at odds with global jihadists were seeking revenge Britain, was derided for selling
parties scrape together a ma- regulators about his ambitions for the murder of Muslims in a vegan sausage roll. But it was
jority, with help from the for Libra, a cryptocurrency that Christchurch was doubted by its critics who were left with
courts. Spainheld two elec- he wants to launch in 2020. intelligence services. The egg on their face: its share price
tions; the Socialists remain the attacks in Colombo bolstered is up by 75% since January.
biggest party. Narendra Modi In the worst crisis in its history, the strongman campaign of
won a second term as prime Boeing eventually suspended Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the
minister in India. Joko Widodo production of its 737max presidential election. After his
secured five more years as jetliner, after it was grounded victory he appointed as prime
Indonesia’spresident. The worldwide following a second minister his brother Mahinda,
African National Congress crash within six months. Air- a former president who had
claimed victory in South lines are still rejigging their overseen the brutal crushing of
Africa, though its 58% share of flight timetables. a Tamil-separatist insurgency.
the vote was its smallest ever.
The Liberal Party defied the After a terrorist attack killed 46 Turkeyinvaded northern Syria
pollsters to win in Australia. paramilitary police in the to fight Kurdishforces allied
In Denmarkthe centre-left Indian-controlled portion of with America, after Mr Trump
came to power, as did the Kashmir, Indian fighter jets withdrew his troops from the
centre-right in Greece. struck targets inside Pakistan area. Although widely con- Could Greenlandbecome a
for the first time since 1971, demned, Mr Trump defended flashpoint in 2020? Donald
Israelheld two inconclusive claiming to hit a jihadist camp. his decision on the basis that Trump’s offer to buy the Danish
elections and is heading for a India’s central government the Kurds “didn’t help us with territory was mocked in Co-
third poll in March 2020. later revoked the special status Normandy”. The American penhagen, causing him to
Binyamin Netanyahu was of its part of Kashmirand split president also unilaterally cancel a state visit. Now Ameri-
boosted by America recognis- it into two territories. ended peace talks with the ca wants to open a consulate in
ing Israeli sovereignty over the Taliban. Afghan negotiators Greenland for the first time
Golan Heights and describing A massacre in March of 51 are struggling to get them back since the second world war. Its
the settlements in the West people at two mosques in to the table. staff may get a chilly reception.
Bank as lawful. In November
the prime minister was indict-
ed for bribery and fraud.
Italygot a new government
formed by the Democratic
Party and Five Star Movement.
Matteo Salvini, the hardline
leader of the Northern League,
was shut out of the coalition.
The collapse of a dam in the
Brazilianstate of Minas Gerais
unleashed a wave of mud that
killed 270 people. The dam’s
metal waste could affect local
ecosystems for decades.
Media streaming took a leap
forward with the release of new
services from Disney, Apple
and others to try to eat into
Netflix’smarket. Netflix got its
first Oscar nomination for best
picture with “Roma”, though
“Green Book” won the award.
Leaders Leaders 13
Pessimism v progress
Contemporary worries about the impact of technology are part of a historical pattern
Faster, cheaper, better—technology is one field many peo- weighedagainstthemuchmoresubstantialbenefits of ubiqui-
ple rely upon to offer a vision of a brighter future. But as the tous communication and the instant access to information and
2020s dawn, optimism is in short supply. The new technologies entertainment that smartphones make possible. A further dan-
that dominated the past decade seem to be making things worse. ger is that Luddite efforts to avoid the short-term costs associat-
Social media were supposed to bring people together. In the Arab ed with a new technology will end up denying access to its long-
spring of 2011they were hailed as a liberating force. Today they term benefits—something Carl Benedikt Frey, an Oxford aca-
are better known for invading privacy, spreading propaganda demic, calls a “technology trap”. Fears that robots will steal
and undermining democracy. E-commerce, ride-hailing and the people’s jobs may prompt politicians to tax them, for example, to
gig economy may be convenient, but they are charged with un- discourage their use. Yet in the long run countries that wish to
derpaying workers, exacerbating inequality and clogging the maintain their standard of living as their workforce ages and
streets with vehicles. Parents worry that smartphones have shrinks will need more robots, not fewer.
turned their children into screen-addicted zombies. That points to another lesson, which is that the remedy to
The technologies expected to dominate the new decade also technology-related problems very often involves more technol-
seem to cast a dark shadow. Artificial intelligence (ai) may well ogy. Airbags and other improvements in safety features, for ex-
entrench bias and prejudice, threaten your job and shore up au- ample, mean that in America deaths in car accidents per billion
thoritarian rulers (see Essay in this issue). 5gis at the heart of the miles travelled have fallen from around 240 in the 1920s to
Sino-American trade war. Autonomous cars still do not work, but around 12 today. aiis being applied as part of the effort to stem
manage to kill people all the same. Polls show that internet firms the flow of extremist material on social media. The ultimate ex-
are now less trusted than the banking industry. At the very mo- ample is climate change. It is hard to imagine any solution that
ment banks are striving to rebrand themselves as tech firms, in- does not depend in part on innovations in clean energy, carbon
ternet giants have become the new banks, morphing from talent capture and energy storage.
magnets to pariahs. Even their employees are in revolt. The most important lesson is about technology itself. Any
The New York Times sums up the encroaching gloom. “A mood powerful technology can be used for good or ill. The internet
of pessimism”, it writes, has displaced “the idea spreads understanding, but it is also where vid-
of inevitable progress born in the scientific and eos of people being beheaded go viral. Biotech-
industrial revolutions.” Except those words are nology can raise crop yields and cure diseases—
from an article published in 1979. Back then the but it could equally lead to deadly weapons.
paper fretted that the anxiety was “fed by grow- Technology itself has no agency: it is the
ing doubts about society’s ability to rein in the choices people make about it that shape the
seemingly runaway forces of technology”. world. Thus the techlash is a necessary step in
Today’s gloomy mood is centred on smart- the adoption of important new technologies. At
phones and social media, which took off a de- its best, it helps frame how society comes to
cade ago. Yet concerns that humanity has taken a technological terms with innovations and imposes rules and policies that limit
wrong turn, or that particular technologies might be doing more their destructive potential (seat belts, catalytic converters and
harm than good, have arisen before. In the 1970s the desponden- traffic regulations), accommodate change (universal schooling
cy was prompted by concerns about overpopulation, environ- as a response to industrialisation) or strike a trade-off (between
mental damage and the prospect of nuclear immolation. The the convenience of ride-hailing and the protection of gig-work-
1920s witnessed a backlash against cars, which had earlier been ers). Healthy scepticism means that these questions are settled
seen as a miraculous answer to the affliction of horse-drawn ve- by a broad debate, not by a coterie of technologists.
hicles—which filled the streets with noise and dung, and caused
congestion and accidents. And the blight of industrialisation Fire up the moral engine
was decried in the 19th century by Luddites, Romantics and so- Perhaps the real source of anxiety is not technology itself, but
cialists, who worried (with good reason) about the displacement growing doubts about the ability of societies to hold this debate,
of skilled artisans, the despoiling of the countryside and the suf- and come up with good answers. In that sense, techno-pessi-
fering of factory hands toiling in smoke-belching mills. mism is a symptom of political pessimism. Yet there is some-
Stand back, and in each of these historical cases disappoint- thing perversely reassuring about this: a gloomy debate is much
ment arose from a mix of unrealised hopes and unforeseen con- better than no debate at all. And history still argues, on the
sequences. Technology unleashes the forces of creative destruc- whole, for optimism. The technological transformation since
tion, so it is only natural that it leads to anxiety; for any given the Industrial Revolution has helped curb ancient evils, from
technology its drawbacks sometimes seem to outweigh its bene- child mortality to hunger and ignorance. Yes, the planet is warm-
fits. When this happens with several technologies at once, as to- ing and antibiotic resistance is spreading. But the solution to
day, the result is a wider sense of techno-pessimism. such problems calls for the deployment of more technology, not
However, that pessimism can be overdone. Too often people less. So as the decade turns, put aside the gloom for a moment. To
focus on the drawbacks of a new technology while taking its be alive in the tech-obsessed 2020s is to be among the luckiest
benefits for granted. Worries about screen time should be people who have ever lived.7
14 Leaders The EconomistDecember21st2019
Boeing
Maxed out
Boeing responded to the 737 max crisis by taking a business gamble. It has backfired
InmarchaBoeing737maxaircraftcrashedinEthiopia,justsix outputsoastooffercustomersanalternativesourceofaircraft.
monthsafterasimilaraccidentinIndonesia.Nearly350peo- ThereisaqueasysensethatBoeinghasplayedagameofchicken
plewerekilledinthetwodisasters,whichrevealedaflawinthe withregulators.Instokingexpectationsthatthemaxwillbeair-
max’sflight-controlsystemandputintoquestionavastindus- borneagainsoonandkeepingproductionhumming,ithaspre-
trialenterprise.Airlinesarerelyingonthedeliveryofthousands sented regulators with an unenviable choice: either to let the
ofmaxplanesoverthenextdecadeorso.Boeingwasexpectedto maxbackintheairwhetherornotitisready,ortodamagethein-
makeupalargeshareofitsfutureprofitsfromthemax.Thefirm dustryandtheAmericaneconomy.
isoneofAmerica’sbiggestexportersandatleastamillionpeople Boeing’s strategy has backfired. America’s Federal Aviation
workforitorforitssuppliers. Administration(faa),thetarnishedregulatorwhichatfirstde-
Since March Boeing’s response has been an ugly mixture of clined to ground the max, has found its backbone under new
remorse, evasion and swagger, as it has gambled that it can get management and said that it is not yet ready to rule that the
themax,anditsbusiness,rapidlybackintheair.OnDecember flight-controlproblemhasbeenfixed.Inthepastforeignregula-
16ththatstrategyranoutofrunwaywhenthefirmannouncedit torshavefollowedthefaa’slead,butamajorityofBoeing’ssales
wouldsuspendproductionofthestrickenplane. arenowmadeoutsideAmericaandauthoritiesabroadnolonger
Boeing’s defiance began with its decision to want to play wingman to the faa. Both China
stick with its chief executive, Dennis Muilen- and the eu have indicated that they are not yet
burg (although he was replaced as chairman in happy.Thenumberofidle,newmaxespilingup
October).Therehasbeennopublic,comprehen- hasgrownto400.Boeing’sstrategyhasstrained
sive,independentinvestigationbythefirminto itsbalance-sheet,withitsinventoriesreaching
what went wrong. In its place there have been $73bnandgrossdebts$25bn.
leaks galore and reports about software pro- It is time for a different approach. Mr Mui-
blemsandcornersbeingcut. lenburgshouldberemovedandthefirm’sboard
Even though the max is not allowed to fly, ofdirectorsbeefedup.IfBoeingdoesnotdothis
Boeing’sfactorieshavecontinuedtochurnoutnewplanesthat voluntarily,itsownersandregulatorsshouldinsist.Production
sitonthetarmacwhilecustomersareunwillingorunabletotake of the max should resume only when the firm has received ap-
deliveryofthemormakefullpayment.ThefirmsignalledtoWall provalfromregulatorsaroundtheworld.Boeingneedstoshore
Streetthatbusinesswouldreturntonormalsoonenoughandit upitsbalance-sheet,sothatithastheresourcestoinvestandto
continuestopayadividend,despiteburningup$3bnofcashlast help tide over crucial suppliers—which means eliminating its
quarter. Boeing had indicated to investors, suppliers and cus- dividend. And lastly it needs to come up with a medium-term
tomers that the max would be flying by the end of 2019, even planforlifeafterthemax,intheformofanext-generationair-
thoughthisisadecisionitshouldnotbeabletodetermine. craft,perhapsonethatreliesonhybrid-electricpropulsion.Over
Boeing no doubt wants to protect its workers and defend it- the past decade Boeing has skimped on research, development
selffromabarrageoflawsuits.Buttheindustry’slackofcompe- andcapitalspending,investingonly7%ofitssalesonaverage,
tition lets it get away with poor behaviour. In the short run the comparedwitharound10%atAirbus.Oncethe737maxwasthe
otherhalfofthepassenger-jetduopoly,Airbus,cannotincrease future.Itistimeforanewpilotandanewcourse.7
New Conservative heartlands
Boris Johnson’s northern strategy
To help left-behind northern towns, link them to go-ahead northern cities
Having wonscores of former Labour strongholds across the Conservative Party, Mr Johnson relies on the north like no recent
north of England in 2019’s general election, Boris Johnson is Tory leader (see Britain section). If he is to keep his promise to
determined to offer his new voters something in return. “We will improve life in the region, how should he go about it?
repay your trust,” he promised on a triumphant visit to his new The north of England has been in economic decline relative to
turf on December 14th. Northerners have heard this kind of talk the south since the late 19th century. That is not something any
before. David Cameron’s government promised a “northern government can reverse in five years. But Mr Johnson means to
powerhouse” economy—only for the idea to fall by the wayside make a start. His fiscal plans allow him to spend up to £80bn
under Theresa May. After the Brexit referendum of 2016 there ($104bn), 3.8% of gdp, on capital projects in northern constitu-
was much talk of the need to look after “left-behind” places that encies over the next five years.
had voted Leave—instead the government spent three years fo- His first task is to jettison the idea, common in London, that
cusing on its battles in Westminster. Yet with his newly remade the north is an economic monolith where everything is grim. 1
16 Leaders The EconomistDecember21st2019
2Prosperous cities like Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle are ered the decline of its tourism industry by becoming an attrac-
almost unrecognisable from two decades ago. In 2017 (the most tive place to live within easy reach of the capital. Blackpool, a
recent year for which data are available) Newcastle and Liverpool once-lively seaside resort in the north-west, is a byword for de-
enjoyed faster growth in gross value added, a measure of output, cline. Although it is closer to Manchester than Brighton is to Lon-
than the capital. In 2018, according to ibm, a computing giant, don, the trains take 20 minutes longer and are a quarter as fre-
Manchester and Liverpool were among the top ten cities in the quent. Inter-city connections in the north are a mess. By train, it
world for inward foreign direct investment. is quicker to travel 250 miles (400km) to Newcastle from London
The left-behind parts of the north are not its cities but its than it is to get to Newcastle from Liverpool, just 120 miles away.
towns. Many have still not recovered from deindustrialisation Buses are slow and pricey. And pity anyone without a ministerial
under the Conservative governments of the 1980s. Their labour helicopter if they need to get to Scotland. North of Newcastle, the
markets lag behind the rest of the country, with poor employ- a1(a “strategic national road”, no less) in some places narrows to
ment rates and lower wages. The clearest sign of this economic a single carriageway that is often blocked by tractors.
failure is that young residents are leaving. Towns like Redcar and Rail is just the start. According to firms surveyed by ey, a con-
Scunthorpe have seen the number of resident 18- to 24-year-olds sultancy, ropy infrastructure, including power, internet connec-
fall by more than 20% since the 1980s, while the number of tivity and transport, is the largest reason for not investing in Eng-
over-65s has risen by 30% or more. Ageing populations have cut lish towns. Better vocational training would mean that once
local spending power and put pressure on stretched local-gov- residents of Blackpool arrive in Manchester, they would have
ernment budgets as the demand for social care rises. more chance of getting a job. A comprehensive deal with the eu
Northern towns are stalling even as their neighbouring cities would be better for the north than the skimpy effort that Mr
are doing well partly because dire transport links make the likes Johnson seems intent on dashing off by the end of 2020.
of Manchester or Newcastle seem a world away from Wigan or Giving more powers to English city mayors would help them
Hartlepool. The transport infrastructure of the north has suf- draw up integrated regional-transport plans. Although improv-
fered from decades of underinvestment. In 2018-19 government ing railways would be a long-term project, buses could rapidly be
transport spending per person was £903 in London, against less made better—perhaps in time for the election in 2024, when
than £500 in the north. In the past five years the government has northerners will get to decide whether to cement their relation-
spent more on transport infrastructure for 9m Londoners than ship with the Conservatives. The north does not need or want to
England’s 15m northerners. rely on London to get back on track. If the government would
The consequences are clear. In the south, Brighton has weath- only stump up the cash, the north will help itself. 7
Homelessness
Mean streets
How to reduce homelessness in the world’s priciest cities
“Ihave slept on the Embankment,” wrote George Orwell in public drunkenness, were in part responsible for the rise in
1933, adding that, despite the noise and the wet and the cold, homelessness. The world could learn something from Greece,
it was “much better than not sleeping at all”. Under the nearby where strong family networks ensure that those down on their
Charing Cross bridge, Orwell reported that “50 men were wait- luck find someone to take them in. Many experts argue that it is
ing, mirrored in the shivering puddles.” Nine decades on and counterproductive to give money to someone begging on the
Charing Cross and the Embankment are once again full of rough street. Better, they say, to donate to a charity.
sleepers, even during the coldest days of December. Across Lon- Yet tougher tactics will ultimately do little if housing costs re-
don their numbers have more than tripled since 2010. main high. This is the underlying reason for rising homeless-
It is a pattern found in much of the rich ness—which is perhaps one reason why Ameri-
world. Almost every European country is seeing ca’s Supreme Court on December 16th affirmed
a rise in the number of homeless people, includ- that lawmakers may not criminalise rough
ing those who live in temporary accommoda- sleeping. Few Americans lived on the streets in
tion, as well as the smaller number who live on the early post-war period because housing was
the streets. Homelessness across America is in cheaper. Back then only one in four tenants
decline, but it is soaring in its most prosperous spent more than 30% of their income on rent,
cities. Roughly 5,000 people live on the streets compared with one in two today. The best evi-
of San Francisco, a 19% rise in just two years. dence suggests that a 10% rise in housing costs
It does not have to be this way. In post-war America there was in a pricey city prompts an 8% jump in homelessness.
little rough sleeping, and homelessness was falling so fast that The state can do something to help. Cuts to rent subsidies for
sociologists predicted its imminent disappearance. Even today, Britain’s poor are probably the biggest reason why Charing Cross
some rich, successful cities, including Tokyo and Munich, have has so many people sleeping on the streets once again (see Brit-
few people living on the streets. ain section). Making such subsidies more generous might actu-
These places offer lessons on how to reduce homelessness. ally save governments money in the medium term—after all, de-
One is that tough love can sometimes work. Conservatives argue mands on health-care services and the police would decline.
that softer policing tactics in the 1970s, including lax attitudes to People would also be more likely to find a job. 1
18 Leaders The EconomistDecember21st2019
2 Another option is for the state to build more housing itself. In ing more homes easier. In many countries nimbyist planning
Singapore, another place where there is practically no homeless- rules vastly inflate the market price of shelter. Such rules should
ness, 80% of residents live in government-built flats which they be slashed. The problem of rough sleeping in Germany and Swit-
buy at knock-down prices. While many countries have been pri- zerland, two countries with minimal real-house-price growth in
vatising their stock of public housing, Finland has been building recent decades, is less acute. Japan has used its fair share of
more of it, giving the government the wherewithal to put home- strong-arm tactics to deal with the homeless, but then it intro-
less people in their own apartments rather than warehousing duced a big urban reform in the early 2000s.
them in shelters (see Europe section). It has embraced an ap-
proach originally pioneered in America, which does not demand Up and inside in Tokyo and Singapore
that homeless folk quit drinking or drugs before giving them ac- Japan loosened planning rules, prompting residential construc-
commodation. Instead it gives them a home first, and then offers tion to jump. Since then, housing costs in Tokyo have fallen in
intensive support to help them cope with their problems. In Fin- real terms and the number of rough sleepers has fallen by 80% in
land the homeless numbers are moving in the right direction. 20 years. Until cities elsewhere let the buildings go up, more peo-
The most effective reform, however, would be to make build- ple will find themselves down and out. 7
Country of the year
The improvement prize
Which nation made the most of 2019?
Our annual“country of the year” award celebrates improve- slaved so many black Africans that a third of the country broke
ment. Each December, therefore, we give a hostage to for- away to form South Sudan in 2011. Mr Bashir was convicted of
tune. The places that climb furthest are often those that started corruption in a Sudanese court on December 14th (see Middle
near the bottom: poor, ill-governed and unstable. Freshly won East & Africa section) but seems unlikely to be extradited to
democracy and peace do not always last, as Aung San Suu Kyi, the stand trial for overseeing genocide in Darfur. A new power-shar-
leader of Myanmar (The Economist’s country of the year in 2015) ing government vows to hold elections in three years, is negoti-
ended up reminding the world when she appeared recently at the ating peace in Darfur and has eased the dress code for women.
International Court of Justice in The Hague and glossed over the However, the risk that thugs from the old regime may scupper
ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas, a Muslim minority, by her democratic reforms is still worryingly high.
country’s soldiers. So the winner is a country Herman Cain, an American presi-
In 2019 the most striking political trend was a negative one: dential candidate, once dismissed as “Ubeki-beki-beki-stan-
belligerent nationalism. India has been stripping Muslims of stan”. Three years ago Uzbekistan was an old-fashioned post-
citizenship, China has been locking up Muslims in camps, Soviet dictatorship, a closed society run with exceptional brutal-
America has taken a wrecking ball to global institutions. So ity and incompetence. Its regime allegedly boiled dissidents
strong was the global tide that it was a relief to see some coun- alive, and certainly forced legions of men, women and children
tries paddling the other way. New Zealand de- to toil in the cotton fields at harvest time.
serves an honourable mention for its response When Islam Karimov, the despot for 27 years,
to a massacre in mosques by a white nationalist. died in 2016, he was succeeded by his prime
Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister, put on a minister, Shavkat Mirziyoyev. At first, little
headscarf and declared that an attack on Mus- changed. But after dumping the head of the se-
lims was an attack on all New Zealanders. Her curity services in 2018, Mr Mirziyoyev began re-
government banned semi-automatic weapons forms that have accelerated over the past year.
and bought thousands of them from the public. His government has largely ended forced la-
Even more impressive was North Macedo- bour. Its most notorious prison camp has been
nia, which changed its name to promote peace with its neigh- closed. Foreign journalists are let in. Bureaucrats are banned
bour. Greece had objected that its former moniker, Macedonia, from calling on small businesses, which they previously did
implied a claim to the Greek region of the same name. Greek in- constantly, to bully them for bribes. More border crossings have
transigence prevented the Macedonians from joining nato or opened, helping unite families divided by Central Asia’s crazy
starting negotiations to join the European Union. So lawmakers quilt of frontiers. Foreign technocrats have been invited to help
in Skopje swallowed their pride and voted to rename their coun- overhaul the state-stifled economy.
try; the change took effect in February. Relations with Greece are Uzbekistan is to hold parliamentary elections before the new
now much warmer. A source of discord has been removed from a year (see Asia section). Although it is far from a democracy—all
tetchy region. North Macedonia is on track to join nato. Alas, of the parties support Mr Mirziyoyev and some critics remain be-
Emmanuel Macron, the president of France (country of the year hind bars—some of the candidates have offered mild criticisms
2017) is blocking its candidacy for the eu, fearing that welcoming of the government, which would previously have been unthink-
another Balkan state into the club would irk French voters. able. Ordinary Uzbeks, too, feel free to lampoon the campaign
Two countries became notably less despotic in 2019. In Sudan and grumble about the political class, without fear of being
mass protests led to the ejection of Omar al-Bashir, one of the dragged off in the middle of the night. Uzbekistan still has a long
world’s vilest tyrants. His Islamist regime had murdered and en- way to go, but no other country travelled as far in 2019.7