The Economics of Population Growth

589 Pages·2020·55.915 MB·English

by  Julian Lincoln Simon

JULIAN LINCOLN SIMON
The Economics of
Population Growth
PRINCETON LEGACY LIBRARY
THE ECONOMICS OF
POPULATION G ROWTH

The Economics of
Population Growth
JULIAN L. SIMON
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS
PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY
Princeton Legacy Library edition 2019
Paperback ISBN: 978-0-691-60311-7
Hardcover ISBN: 978-0-691-65629-8
For My Grandmother
Fanny Goodstein
Who never went to school
But whose life made her family and community richer
Economically and spiritually.
And for the many many women and men
In the poor populations of the world
Who are like my grandmother

CONTENTS
List of Figures xiii
List ofTables XVll
Preface xxi
Acknowledgments XXV
List of Symbols xxvii
Foreword by Joseph Spengler xxix
Chapter 1 : lntroduction to the Issues and to the Book 3
Orerriew 3
The Intellectual Background 3
The Book's Organization and Findings 9
Time, Paradoxes. and Popu/ation: Growth's Real Eff'ects 14
PART l: THE EFFECTS OF POPULA TION ÜROWTH ON Ecm<OMIC CONDITIOJSS
lntroduction 23
Chapter 2: The Effect of Population Growth on the Economic Leve!:
Background, Comparative Statics, and General Dynamic Model 25
The Background 15
Tite Comparatire Statics of Popu/ation Growth and the Economy 27
The E;lfects of Sea/e 35
The E;lfect of Popu/ation Growth on Hea/th 36
Tite Feedback E;lfect ofincome on Population Growth 37
A General Dynamic Modelfor the Study ofthe Economics of
Population Growth 37
The Familv Analogy 41
The Relationship between Growth, Size. Density, and
Rate ofGrowth 41
Summary 43
Chapter 3: The Inftuence of Population Growth on Income in Developed
Economies: Data, Theories, and Micro-Economic Variables 44
Introduction: Data and Theories 44
Tite E;lfect of Incremental Child1·en on Saring as a
Proportion of Income 50
The E;ffect of Incremental Children on Labor Supp/ied
by Mother and Father 55
Summary 62
Vll
CONTENTS
Chapter 4: Macro-Economic Inftuences of Population Growth on
Income in Developed Economies 63
Economies of S cale in Production 63
Advance in Knowledge as a Function of Population Growth 73
Summary 81
Chapter 5: Natural Resources, Pollution, and Population Growth in
MDC's 82
General Theory and Data 82
Two Historical Examples 87
Js Land Different? 91
Pollution and the Environment 100
Summary !06
Chapter 6: The Effect of Population on Per-Worker lncome
in MDC's: A Simulation 108
Introduction 108
The Feedback Models 111
Other Elements of the Models 117
Results 126
Discussion of Results 133
Summary 136
Chapter 7: The Effect of Population Growth on LDC Economies
and Their Development: The Model in General 137
Introduction 137
The Pre-Jndustrial Agricultura/ Economy and the
Agricultura! Sector 140
The Industrial Sector and Jndustrialization !51
Solving the Model !54
Industrialization in an Open Economy !55
Summary of Model !56
Chapter 8: Change in Agricultura! Techniques: The Population-Push and
Invention-Pull Theories of Economic-Demographic History Reconciled !58
Introduction 158
Invention Pul!: The Malthusian Explanation of Population Growth 162
The Population-Push Hypothesis !64
Analytic Comparison ofthe Two Hypotheses 168
Sorne Historical and Anthropological Evidence 170
Summary and Conclusion 181
Chapter 9: Behavior Change, Amount of Work, and Population
lncrease in LDC Agriculture 183
lntroduction 183
The Possible Responses to Additional People 185
viii
CONTENTS
Factors That lnfluence Choice of Response to lncreased Fertility 201
Summary 203
Appendix to Chapter 9: Case Study of the Sensitivity of Agricultura!
Productive Behavior to Increase in Farm Population in Village India 204
Introduction 204
Methods of Estimation 205
Case Study of Village India 207
Conclusion 215
Chapter 10: The Effect of Additiona1 Children on Nonfarm Physica1
and Human Capital in LDC's 216
lntroduction 216
Empírica! Par tia! Estima tes and Calculations of the E.ffect of
Fertility on Saving and lnvestment 217
The Effect through Capital on Output Per Worker 223
The Importance of Investment in Human Capital: Kuznets' Approach 229
Summary 234
Appendix to Chapter 10: Criticism of the Coale-Hoover Results 235
Chapter 11 : The Effect of Population Growth on Agricultura!
Investment in LDC's 238
Introduction 238
Sorne Theory 239
Measurement Di{ficulties 243
Estima tes o.f the Response Sensitivity 245
Re/a tire Size Effects of Population Growth on Agricultura/ and
Nonagricultural lm:estment 256
Summary 260
Chapter 12: The Etfect ofPopulation Growth on Social Capital and
Economies of Scale 262
lntroduction 262
The Importance o.f Transportation 263
The Ef{ect of Population Growth on Transportar ion Systems 269
Other Effects o.f Population on Social Capital 275
Summary 277
Chapter 13: Simu1ations of the Effect of Population Growth on
the Economic Development of LDC's 278
Introduction 278
The Model 281
The Findings 290
Eraluation of Model and Findings 303
Discussion 304
Summary 304
ix