The Economics of Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change.

403 Pages·2011·3.665 MB·English

by  OECD

The Economics of Adapting Fisheries
to Climate Change
The Economics
Climate change is becoming more evident and, as it increases, will alter the productivity of fisheries
and the distribution of fish stocks. From an economic point of view, the changes will have impacts of Adapting Fisheries
on fisheries and coastal communities in different ways. These expected changes require adaptable
and flexible fisheries and aquaculture management policies and governance frameworks. However,
to Climate Change
the forms of future climate change and the extent of its impact remain uncertain. Fisheries policy
makers therefore need to develop strategies and decision-making models in order to adapt
to climate change under such uncertainty while taking into account social and economic
consequences.
While most work on climate change in the fisheries sector has focused on fisheries science,
this book highlights the economic and policy aspects of adapting fisheries to climate change.
An outcome of the OECD Workshop on the Economics of Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change,
held in June 2010, the book outlines the actions that fisheries policy makers must undertake
in the face of climate change. These include: strengthening the global governance system; a broader
use of rights-based management systems; ecosystem protection; industry transformation through
the ending of environmental harmful subsidies and a focus on demand for sustainably caught
seafood; and, in particular, using aquaculture as a key part of the response to climate change.
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Please cite this publication as: h
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OECD (2010), The Economics of Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change, OECD Publishing. g
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264090361-en
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isbn 978-92-64-09036-1 -:HSTCQE=U^UX[V:
53 2010 04 1 P
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The Economics
of Adapting Fisheries
to Climate Change
This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The
opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official
views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries.
Please cite this publication as:
OECD (2010), The Economics of Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change, OECD Publishing.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264090415-en
ISBN 978-92-64-09036-1 (print)
ISBN 978-92-64-09041-5 (PDF)
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3
FOREWORD –
Foreword
Scientific findings indicate that aquatic climate change impacts are becoming more
apparent and will continue to have a profound effect on the productivity of fisheries and
the distribution of fish stocks around the world. However, there is a great deal of
uncertainty associated with climate change in a fisheries context, particularly with respect
to when it will occur, what kind of changes will take place and the extent of the impact it
will have on aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. While global models exist and provide
some indication of the magnitude of impacts, much work needs to be done at the local
level in terms of understanding how fish stocks will react to changes in their environment,
as well as how ecosystems will change. From a social and economic point of view, it is
clear that the effects of climate change will result in the redistribution of costs and
benefits for the fisheries sector and for coastal communities, but how much, when and to
whom these benefits and costs will flow are less clear. In this regard, there is a need for
fisheries policy makers to develop strategies and decision-making models to adapt to
climate change under uncertainty, while also taking into account social and economic
consequences.
As a complementary exercise to the various other international events on climate
change that generally have had a scientific focus, the OECD Committee for Fisheries held
a Workshop on the Economics of Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change on 10-11 June
2010 in Busan, Korea, as part of its Programme of Work for 2009-2010. The main
objective of the Workshop was to provide a forum for policy makers, economists,
biologists, international organisations, the private sector and non-governmental
organizations to examine the economic issues, policy challenges and institutional
frameworks and responses to adapting to climate change. This publication, the outcome
of the Workshop, highlights actions that are needed to respond to climate change:
strengthening the global fisheries governance system, a broader use of rights-based
management systems, ecosystem protection, industry transformation, ending perverse
subsidies and a focus on demand for sustainable seafood. Policy makers will also need to
consider how to ensure sustainable aquaculture production as part of adaptation
strategies, and how to develop adaptable and flexible fisheries and aquaculture policies
within a broader oceans management framework.
The Workshop brought together over 100 participants, ranging from policy makers,
fisheries managers, economists and biologists. The two-day Workshop consisted of six
sessions which included expert presentations and plenary discussions and focussed on
identifying the key economic issues, challenges and possible impacts in relation to
climate change and the fisheries; explored adaptation policy measures and options;
selected case studies on national adaptation strategies in the fisheries sector; policy issues
regarding trans-boundary and high seas stocks as well as climate change adaptation
challenges facing developing countries. The Workshop concluded with a panel session on
the political economy aspects of developing and implementing climate change adaptation
strategies for fisheries, especially with regard to managing expectations and working
collaboratively with stakeholders.
THE ECONOMICS OF ADAPTING FISHERIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE © OECD 2010

5
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS –
Acknowledgements
The OECD Fisheries Policies Division expresses its appreciation to all participants
for contributing to the success of the Workshop on the Economics of Adapting Fisheries
to Climate Change. The Workshop and the publication of these proceedings were made
possible through the generous financial support of the governments of Korea (Ministry
for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MIFAFF) and the Organizing Committee
for EXPO 2012 Yeosu Korea) and the Canadian Government (Fisheries and Oceans
Canada). The OECD would in particular like to thank Mr. Tae-Puong Chang, Minister of
MIFAFF, for hosting a working dinner, and Mr. Yong-Jae Ha, Vice-Minister of MIFAFF
for his welcome address that initiated the Workshop. Thanks are also extended to the
Brazilian Minister of Fisheries and Aquaculture, Mr. Altemir Gregolin, who addressed
the Workshop participants.
The OECD also gratefully acknowledges the Workshop Chair, John Davis, for
leading the discussions, all the speakers for presenting studies on climate change
adaptation issues or national approaches, and the authors of the papers included in this
volume.
The Workshop was organised by Sungbum Kim and Carl-Christian Schmidt (OECD)
with continuous collaboration from Il-Jeong Jeong, Kihwan Kim and Hyo-Jung Jung
from MIFAFF. Karine Ravet and Emily Andrews-Chouicha provided substantial
administrative support. The publication has been prepared and edited by Emily Andrews-
Chouicha, Karine Ravet, Sungbum Kim, Saba Khwaja, and Carl-Christian Schmidt from
the OECD and Sally Hinchcliffe (Consultant).
THE ECONOMICS OF ADAPTING FISHERIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE © OECD 2010

7
TABLE OF CONTENTS –
Table of contents
Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................................................ 11
Chair’s Summary .................................................................................................................................... 17
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 17
Context .................................................................................................................................................. 18
Climate Change and Fisheries Adaptation Issues and Strategies: Current State of Play ..................... 20
Key Messages for Fisheries Policy Makers .......................................................................................... 23
Future research and considerations ....................................................................................................... 27
Chapter 1 Fisheries management and governance challenges in a climate change ......................... 31
Overview of global warming relevant to fisheries ................................................................................ 32
How and where does global warming potentially impact on fisheries? ................................................ 39
Social, economic and environmental consequences of the impact of climate change
on the fisheries sector ............................................................................................................................ 51
How can policy makers respond? .......................................................................................................... 55
Concluding remarks .............................................................................................................................. 61
Annex 1.A1 Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change ............................ 63
Annex 1.A2 Further details on the calculation of an index of vulnerability
of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries ................................................... 70
Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................... 73
Chapter 2 Economic and policy issues related to the impact of climate change on fisheries .......... 91
Physical changes and biological effects in the marine environment ..................................................... 92
Economic effects of climate change ...................................................................................................... 94
Governance effects of climate change ................................................................................................... 99
Policy responses to climate change ..................................................................................................... 103
Conclusions: insights on climate change and capture fisheries ........................................................... 110
Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................ 112
Chapter 3 From an ecosystem approach to assess climate change impacts on fisheries .............. 117
Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 118
The IFRAME model as an EAF approach: elements and structure .................................................... 120
Demonstration of the IFRAME approach on the Korean large purse seine fishery ............................ 124
Implications for fisheries management under a changing climate ...................................................... 132
Further research ................................................................................................................................... 135
Annex 3.A1 Indicators and reference points used in the IFRAME approach ..................................... 137
Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................ 145
THE ECONOMICS OF ADAPTING FISHERIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE © OECD 2010
8
– TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 4 Dealing with uncertainty – implications for fisheries adaptation ................................. 149
Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 150
Types of uncertainty ............................................................................................................................ 150
How do human fishing systems respond to marine ecosystem variability? ........................................ 152
Dealing with uncertainty in marine social-ecological systems ........................................................... 152
Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 155
Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................ 156
Chapter 5 Fisheries management and governance challenges in a changing climate ................... 159
Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 160
Assessing the major failures of governance in fisheries management ................................................ 161
The new challenges facing fisheries governance, fisheries management and aquaculture
in the twenty-first century ................................................................................................................... 165
How can we assure that, with the changes being made, governance systems will be able
simultaneously to contribute to sustainable and responsible fisheries and to aquaculture?
How can the fishery policy-making process be strengthened, keeping in mind the key elements
of fisheries and the political economy perspective? ............................................................................ 169
Summary and conclusions ................................................................................................................... 172
Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................ 174
Chapter 6 Is the current fisheries management toolbox sufficient to
address climate change? ....................................................................................................................... 177
Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 178
The current fisheries management toolbox ......................................................................................... 180
Climate change impacts and response of the fisheries management toolbox ...................................... 193
Adaptive fisheries management .......................................................................................................... 200
Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 206
Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................ 208
Chapter 7 The economics of climate adaptation and marine capture fisheries ............................. 217
Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 218
Promoting sustainable fisheries management ..................................................................................... 219
Fisheries effects of climate change ..................................................................................................... 224
Resilience and adaptation to climate change ....................................................................................... 226
Risk assessment and management for adaptation decision making .................................................... 230
Climate adaptation and fisheries management tools ........................................................................... 237
Further research ................................................................................................................................... 241
Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................................ 242
Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................ 244
Chapter 8 Climate change, adaptation and the fisheries sector ...................................................... 247
Introduction: the issues ........................................................................................................................ 248
What can we expect? ........................................................................................................................... 250
Changes in fish stock productivity ...................................................................................................... 252
Changed fish migrations and shared stocks ........................................................................................ 255
High seas fisheries ............................................................................................................................... 258
Conclusions and policy implications ................................................................................................... 260
Annex 8.A1 Examples of past climate changes and their consequences ............................................ 265
Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................ 274
THE ECONOMICS OF ADAPTING FISHERIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE © OECD 2010