The Economic and Social Cost of Road Accidents

162 Pages·2012·1.1 MB·English

Arlindo Alegre Donário
Ricardo Borges dos Santos
The Economic and Social
Cost of Road Accidents
The Portuguese Case
Preface
Rune Elvik
Lisboa 2012
TITLE
The Economic and Social Cost of Road Accidents The Portuguese Case
AUTHORS
Arlindo Alegre Donário and Ricardo Borges dos Santos
TRANSLATION
Carlos Costa
PUBLISHER
EDIUAL
CEU – Cooperativa de Ensino Universitário, C. R. L.
Rua de Santa Marta, n.º 56 – 1169-023 Lisboa
www.todoebook.com available in eBook
COVER
Samuel Ascenção
DESIGN AND LAYOUT
Samuel Ascenção
ISBN
978-989-8191-37-3
LEGAL DEPOSIT

© National Authority for Road Safety (Autoridade Nacional de Segurança Rodoviária)
and Center for Economic Analysis of Social Regulation (CARS) at the Universidade
Autónoma de Lisboa
DONÁRIO; Arlindo Alegre; SANTOS, Ricardo Borges dos
The economic and social cost of road accidents The portuguese case / Arlindo Alegre
Donário, Ricardo Borges dos Santos; preface Rune Elvik; foreword Paulo Marques
Augusto; translation Carlos Costa. -Lisboa: EDIUAL, 2012. -162 p.
ISBN 978-989-8191-37-3
CDU 33
338.47
Contents
Index of Charts and Graphs ..............................................................................................7
Preface .................................................................................................................................11
Foreword .............................................................................................................................13
Synopsis ...............................................................................................................................15
Introduction ........................................................................................................................17
I – Regulation and Efficiency .......................................................................................23
II – European Comparison ............................................................................................29
III – Trend of Road Accidents with Casualties in Portugal (1959-2010) ......33
IV – Methods Used in Estimating the Economic and Social Cost of Road
Accidents ............................................................................................................................41
4.1 – Willingness-To-Pay Approach (WTP) .........................................................42
4.2 – Human Capital Method .................................................................................46
4.3 – The Method Used ............................................................................................47
V – Data ...............................................................................................................................49
VI – Components of the Economic and Social Cost of Road Accidents ........51
6.1 – Value of lost production ................................................................................52
4 The Economic and Social Cost of Road Accidents in Portugal
6.1.1 – Loss of production relative to fatalities .........................................52
6.1.2 – Seriously injured victims ..................................................................55
6.1.2.1 – Hospital costs with seriously injured victims ..................56
6.1.2.2 – Costs pertaining to the total loss of potential production
with seriously injured victims ..............................................................56
6.1.3 – Slightly injured victims ......................................................................59
6.2 – Administrative costs of insurers .................................................................59
6.3 – Indirect costs with public road safety institutions .................................59
6.4 – Operating costs of courts ..............................................................................61
6.5 – Hospital costs associated with fatal and seriously injured victims ...61
6.6 – Ambulance fees and victim transport costs .............................................62
6.7 – Cost of law enforcement ...............................................................................62
6.8 – Cost of property damage to vehicles .........................................................62
6.9 – Accident loss adjustment costs ....................................................................63
6.10 – Attorney Fees .................................................................................................63
6.11 – Court Fees .......................................................................................................63
6.12 – Funeral Expenses ..........................................................................................64
6.13 – Non-monetary or moral costs ....................................................................64
VII – Empirical Study .....................................................................................................67
7.1 – Total value of lost production .......................................................................67
7.1.1 – Value of lost production of total victims .......................................68
7.1.2 – Value of lost production of fatal victims .......................................69
7.1.3 – Value of lost production of seriously injured victims ................71
7.1.4 – Value of lost production of slightly injured victims ...................72
Contents 5
7.2 – Economic and social cost of road accidents .............................................74
7.2.1 – Average cost per accident with victims .........................................80
7.2.2 – Average cost per accident with fatalities ......................................81
7.2.3 – Average cost per accident with seriously injured victims ........82
7.2.4 – Average cost per accident with slightly injured victims ...........84
7.3 – Average cost per fatal, seriously and slightly injured victim ...............86
7.3.1 – Average cost per victim .....................................................................86
7.3.2 – Average cost per fatality ...................................................................88
7.3.3 – Average cost per seriously injured victim ....................................89
7.3.4 – Average cost per slightly injured victim ........................................91
7.4 – Econometric Analysis ....................................................................................92
7.4.1 – Data and explicative variables ........................................................92
7.4.2 – Time-series tests performed .............................................................94
7.4.3 – Econometric models pertaining to the total number of road
accident victims (Fatal, Seriously and Slightly Injured) .........................96
7.4.3.1 – Total victims ..............................................................................96
7.4.3.2 – Econometric models concerning fatalities .......................99
7.4.3.3 – Econometric models concerning serious injury ............101
7.4.3.4 – Econometric models concerning minor injury ..............103
7.4.4 – Analysis of covariance for independent sets of variables ......104
7.4.4.1 – Covariance analysis of the total number of victims .....105
7.4.4.2 – Covariance analysis of the number of fatalities ............108
7.4.4.3 – Covariance analysis of the number of seriously injured
victims ......................................................................................................109
7.4.4.4 – Covariance analysis of the number of slightly injured
victims ......................................................................................................111
6 The Economic and Social Cost of Road Accidents in Portugal
VIII – Conclusions .........................................................................................................113
8.1 – General Findings ...........................................................................................113
8.2 – Specific findings ............................................................................................117
8.2.1 Evolution of the costs implied in the loss of potential production
of total accident victims ...............................................................................118
8.2.2 – Evolution of the costs implied in the loss of potential production
of fatalities .......................................................................................................119
8.2.3 – Evolution of the costs implied in the loss of potential production
of seriously injured victims .........................................................................120
8.2.4 – Evolution of the costs implied in the loss of potential production
of slightly injured victims ............................................................................121
8.2.5 – Evolution of the economic and social cost of road accidents 122
8.2.6 – Evolution of the average total cost per accident with victims 123
8.2.7 – Evolution of the average cost per accident with fatalities .....124
8.2.8 – Evolution of the average cost per accident with seriously injured
victims...............................................................................................................124
8.2.9 – Evolution of the average cost per accident with slightly injured
victims...............................................................................................................125
8.2.10 – Evolution of the average cost per victim ..................................126
8.2.11 – Evolution of the average cost per fatality ................................126
8.2.12 – Evolution of the average cost per seriously injured victim .126
8.2.13 – Evolution of the average cost per slightly injured victim .....127
8.2.14 – Econometric Analysis Findings ..................................................127
IX – Recommendation ..................................................................................................131
Bibliography .....................................................................................................................133
Appendix ...........................................................................................................................141
Index of Charts and Graphs
Graph 2.1 – Trend in the number of road fatalities per million inhabitants in five
countries: Portugal, Greece, Italy, Spain and France (1991-2008) .......................29
Graph 2.2 – Trend in the number of road Fatalities per million inhabitants.
Portugal compared to four countries with low rates (1991-2008) ........................30
Graph 2.3 – Trend in the number of road fatalities per million inhabitants. Portugal
compared to the European Union with 15 and 27 member states (1991-2008) 31
Graph 3.1 – Trend in the number of accidents with victims in Portugal (1959-
2010) .....................................................................................................................................33
Graph 3.2 – Trend in the number of road deaths in Portugal. 1959-2010 ..........35
Graph 3.3 – Trend in the number of seriously injured road accident victims in
Portugal (1987-2010) ........................................................................................................36
Graph 3.4 – Trend in the number of seriously injured road accident victims in
Portugal recorded by hospitals and by Police Authorities (2000-2009) ..............38
Graph 3.5 – Trend in the number of slightly injured road accident victims (1996-
2010) .....................................................................................................................................39
Graph 7.1.1.1 – Value of production loss of total victims .......................................68
Graph 7.1.1.2 – Value of lost production of fatalities ..............................................69
Graph 7.1.1.3 – Value of lost production of seriously injured victims ................71
Graph 7.1.1.4 – Value of lost production of slightly injured victims ...................73
8 The Economic and Social Cost of Road Accidents in Portugal
Graph 7.2.1 – Evolution of the economic and social cost of road accidents .....74
Chart 7.2.1 – Evolution of the economic and social cost of road accidents with
fatalities during the period 1996- 2010 .......................................................................76
Chart 7.2.2 – Evolution of the economic and social cost of road accidents with
seriously injured victims during the period 1996- 2010 .........................................77
Chart 7.2.3 – Evolution of the economic and social cost of road accidents with
slightly injured victims during the period 1996- 2010 ............................................78
Graph 7.2.1.1 – Trend in the average economic and social cost per accident with
victims ..................................................................................................................................80
Graph 7.2.2.1 – Trend in the average economic and social cost per accident with
fatalities ...............................................................................................................................81
Graph 7.2.3.1 – Trend in the average economic and social cost per accident with
seriously injured victims .................................................................................................83
Graph 7.2.4.1 – Trend in the average economic and social cost per accident with
slightly injured victims ....................................................................................................84
Graph 7.3.1.1 – Trend of the average cost per victim ..............................................86
Graph 7.3.2.1 – Trend of the average cost per fatality ............................................88
Graph 7.3.3.1 – Trend of the average cost per seriously injured victim .............89
Graph 7.3.4.1 – Trend of the average cost per slightly injured victim ................91
Chart 7.4.3.1.1 – Dynamic ADL models (1,1). Regression results. Dependent
Variable/Regressand: Ln TOTAL VICTIMS .................................................................96
t
Chart 7.4.3.2.1 – Dynamic ADL models (1,1). Regression results. Dependent
Variable/Regressand: Ln FATALITIES ..........................................................................99
t
Chart 7.4.3.3.1 – Dynamic ADL models (1,1). Regression results. Dependent
Variable/Regressand: Ln SERIOUSLy INjURED......................................................101
t
Chart 7.4.3.4.1 – Dynamic ADL models (1,1). Regression results. Dependent
Variable/Regressand: Ln SLIGHTLy INjURED ........................................................103
t
Contents 9
Chart 7.4.4.1.1 – Covariance analysis of independent sets of variables – Total
number of Victims ...........................................................................................................105
Chart 7.4.4.2.1 – Covariance analysis of independent sets of variables – Fatali-
ties .......................................................................................................................................108
Chart 7.4.4.3.1 – Covariance analysis of independent sets of variables – Seriously
Injured ................................................................................................................................110
Chart 7.4.4.4.1 – Covariance analysis of independent sets of variables – Slightly
Injured ................................................................................................................................111
Chart 8.1.1 – Average individual cost according to the different categories of
victims ................................................................................................................................115
Chart 8.1.2 – Average individual cost per accident with casualties ..................116