The Econometrics of Major Transport Infrastructures

215 Pages·1997·9.378 MB·English

by  Emile Quinet, Roger Vickerman (eds.)

THE ECONOMETRICS OF MAJOR TRANSPORT
INFRASTRUCTURES
APPLIED ECONOMETRICS ASSOCIATION SERIES
General Editors: Jean H.P. Paelinck, Emeritus Professor, Erasmus
University, Rotterdam; and Henri Serbat, Chamber of Commerce, Paris
The vital importance of econometrics for understanding economic
phenomena is increasingly recognized in every field of economics.
The discipline is based on 'scientific processes which aim to identify,
explain and forecast economic phenomena using formalised tools to
produce, measure, structure and model the information' (Gérard Duru
and Henri Serbat, 1991).
The Applied Econometrics Association, established in 1974, seeks to
develop the use of econometric tools by producing regular updates on
the state of the art and the progress made in each specific field, and so
to further the transformation of unconnected facts into pertinent infor
mation for the use in analysis and decision-making.
The series was conceived to form a set of working references for
advanced students and researchers in each specific field, as well as a
guide to development across the discipline more broadly.
This exchange of knowledge will be continued permanently by the
opening of a debate-site on the Internet [http://www.lyonl.fr/aea]
Titles include:
Françoise Bourdon and Jean Bourdon (editors)
WAGE ECONOMETRICS AND MODELLING
Fabrizio Carlevaro and Jean-Baptiste Lesourd (editors)
MEASURING AND ACCOUNTING ENVIRONMENTAL
NUISANCES AND SERVICES
Pavlos Karadeloglou (editor)
EXCHANGE-RATE POLICY INE UROPE
Emile Quinet and Roger Vickerman (editors)
THE ECONOMETRICS OF MAJOR TRANSPORT
INFRASTRUCTURES
The Econontetrics of
Major Transport
Infrastructures
Edited by
Emile Quinet
Ecole Nationale des Pants et Chaussées,P aris
and
Roger Vickerman
Centre for European, Regional and Transport Economics
University of Kent at Canterbury
© Applied Econometrics Association 1997
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1997
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of
this publication may be made without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or
transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with
the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988,
or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying
issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court
Road, London W1P 9HE.
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this
publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil
claims for damages.
The authors have asserted their rights to be identified
as the authors of this work in accordance with the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published 1997 by
MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
ISBN 978-1-349-13979-8 ISBN 978-1-349-13977-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-13977-4
A catalogue record for this book is available
from the British Library.
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and
made from fully managed and sustained forest sources.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97
Contents
List of Figures vii
List of Tables ix
Notes on the Contributors xi
1 Introduction 1
Emile Quinet and Roger Vickerman
2 A Disaggregate Box-Cox Logit Mode Choice Model
of Intercity Passenger Travel in Germany 19
Benedikt Mandel, Marc Gaudry and Werner Rothengatter
3 Measuring the Contribution of Road Infrastructure to
Economic Development in France 45
Bernard Fritsch and Remy Prud'homme
4 Infrastructure Quality and Freight Flow Scenarios 69
Cees Ruijgrok and Leo Bus
5 Traffic and Revenue Forecasts for the Channel
Tunnel Project 83
Alain Blanquier
6 Rational Pricing Strategies in the Cross-Channel Market 115
Stefan Szymanski
7 The Channel Tunnel and Regional Development:
Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Methods 137
Klaus Spiekermann and Michael Wegener
8 Economic Effects of the Seto-Ohashi Bridge 163
Takeo lhara, Harunori Shishido, Kazuyuki Tokuoka
and Hiroyuki Yamada
9 Post-Evaluation of the Japanese Railway Network
1875-1940 185
Hisa Morisugi and Yasuhisa Hayashiyama
Index 203
List of Figures
2.1 Linear Logit versus Box-Cox Logit 25
2.2 (a) Value of time with respect to the mth unit of travel
time saved; (b) Value of time with respect to m units
of travel time saved 33
4.1 Relationship between PIT and product logistics 70
4.2 SMILE as dynamic interaction model 73
4.3 SMILE - model structure 74
4.4 SMILE-interactions 76
4.5 Direct and indirect effects of change of transport costs 78
5.1 Channel Tunnel passenger traffic forecast methodology 85
5.2 Channel Tunnel freight traffic forecast methodology 86
5.3 British leisure traffic across the Channel 91
5.4 British external trade elasticities 93
5.5 Relationship between price elasticity and penetration
of a foreign market by British exports 95
5.6 Methodology for estimation of traffic diverted and97
generated by a new transport mode 97
5.7 Sea passenger traffic distribution by corridor:
Continental car passenger model calibration 99
5.8 Example of network coding: London-Frankfurt freight
traffic 103
5.9 Build-up estimation: segmentation of users and transfers
between segments 108
5.10 Probability distribution for Eurotunnel revenues 112
7.1 The thirteen study regions 140
7.2 Simulated network scenarios 143
7.3 Impacts of the Channel Tunnel on West-Vlaanderen
according to the regional analysis 145
7.4 Impacts of the Channel Tunnel on West-Vlaanderen
according to the model analysis 147
7.5 Summarized impacts of the Channel Tunnel on the
case study regions 151
8.1 Three routes of the Honshu-Shikoku bridges 164
8.2 Total flow of cars between Honshu and Shikoku by route 166
viii List of Figures
8.3 Quarterly traffic of passenger vehicles between Honshu
and Shikoku 167
8.4 Quarterly traffic of trucks between Honshu and Shikoku 167
8.5 Model of the shift effect of the Seto-Ohashi Bridge 170
8.6 Residuals and estimated logistic curve for trucks 173
8.7 Shift effect of the Seto-Ohashi Bridge on the traffic of
trucks 174
9.1 Demand of railway passenger and freight 186
9.2 The impact of the railway network formation
(passenger case) 192
9.3 Process of evaluation of social net benefits 194
9.4 Estimated EVW • EVP L and EV 199
List of Tables
2.1 Non-constant returns in a Box-Cox Logit model 26
2.2 Model specification: variables 28
2.3 Model specification: functional form and log likelihood
values 30
2.4 Selected linear and Box-Cox Logit results for MKO
and MKli series 32
2.Al Linear, logarithmic and Box-Cox Logit MK model
comparison 35
3.1 Regional distribution of the stock of private capital (K),
1989 49
3.2 Regional distribution of the stock of national roads (R,),
1989 50
3.3 Regional distribution of cumulated road works (R 1989 50
1),
3.4 Road infrastructure (R) and output (Y) 51
3.5 National road infrastructure (Rk, Rn) and output
per capita 52
3.6 Cumulated road works and output per capita 53
3.7 Cumulated road works and labour productivity 54
3.8 Increases in road infrastructure (llRt) and increases in
private capital (K89/K81) 55
3.9 Road infrastructure weighted for usage and output
per capita 56
3.10 Road infrastructure and capital productivity 58
3.11 Usage weighted road infrastructure and capital
productivity 59
3.12 Distribution of the French national stock of capital,
by type of capital and by type of owner, 1988 60
3.13 Distribution of the national road network, by region,
1989 61
3.14 Average daily traffic and index of road usage,
by region, 1989 62
3.15 Main characteristics of variables used 63
3.16 Usage weighted road infrastructure and labour
productivity 66
X List of Tables
6.1 Standard return fare, using ferries or Eurotunnel, 1994 119
6.2 Price and profit scenarios 128
6.3 Net present value of Eurotunnel' s revenue stream 128
7.1 Impacts on regional development 148
8.1 Regression results for trend analysis (1982.1-1992.4) 169
8.2 Regression results for GDP model of trucks
(1982.3-1987.4) 172
8.3 Residuals of GDP model of trucks 173
8.4 Estimated results by regression analysis: intraregional
commodity flows 177
8.5 Estimated results by regression analysis: interregional
commodity flows 178
8.6 Total effects of interprefectural repercussion based on
input-output table for Shikoku Region 181
9.1 Estimation of utility function result 195
9.2 Estimation of production function result 196
9.3 Estimation of private capital stock result 197
9.4 Estimation of private capital stock function result 197
9.5 Estimation of railway capital stock function result 197
9.6 Estimation of other railway capital stock function result 197
9.7 Estimation of transportation capital stock function result 198
9.8 Estimated EVw. EVPL and EV 200