THE DIVIDED WELFARE STATE At a time of fierce conflict over U.S. social policy, Americans are con- sidering whether the public sector should do less and the private sector more. In this pioneering book, Jacob Hacker shows that this battle is as old as the American welfare state itself - and that unearthing its sources and legacies is crucial to understanding America's strikingly unusual social welfare system. What is truly distinctive about American social provision, Hacker argues, is not the level of U.S. spending, but that so many social welfare duties are handled by the private sector, rather than by government. Alongside America's public social programs lies a sub- merged network of employer-sponsored social benefits, which are heavily subsidized and regulated by government, yet distributed much less evenly than public protections. Examining the twentieth-century development of health insurance and retirement pensions, Hacker unveils the politi- cal roots and effects of America's hybrid system and explains why the role of private benefits differs so sharply across the health and pension areas. To do so, he develops a model of path dependence that demon- strates how political choices of the past created interests and organiza- tions dedicated to preserving the private tilt of U.S. social policy. With sweeping history, topical commentary, and a wealth of statistical and cross-national evidence, The Divided Welfare State demonstrates that private social benefits not only are a critical element of U.S. social policy, but also have deeply influenced the politics of public social programs - to produce a social policy framework whose full dimensions have yet to be fully debated. Jacob S. Hacker is Peter Strauss Family Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yale University. He was previously a Junior Fellow of the Harvard Society of Fellows, a Fellow at the New America Foundation, and a Research Fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is the author of The Road to Nowhere: The Genesis of President Clinton's Plan for Health Security, which co-won the 1997 Louis Brownlow Book Award of the National Academy of Public Administration. This book is based on his dissertation, which garnered prizes from the American Political Science Association, the Association of Public Policy Analysis and Management, and the National Academy of Social Insurance. To Oona and Ava THE DIVIDED WELFARE STATE The Battle over Public and Private Social Benefits in the United States JACOB S. HACKER Yale University CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, Sao Paulo, Delhi, Dubai, Tokyo Cambridge University Press 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10013-2473, USA www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521013284 © Jacob S. Hacker 2002 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2002 Reprinted 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008 A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data Hacker, Jacob S. The divided welfare state : the battle over public and private social benefits in the United States / Jacob S. Hacker. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-521-81288-7 - ISBN 0-521-01328-3 (pbk.) 1. United States — Social policy. 2. Privatization — United States. 3. Welfare state — United States. I. Title. HN59.2. H33 2002 361.6T0973-dc21 2002067734 ISBN 978-0-521-81288-7 Hardback ISBN 978-0-521-01328-4 Paperback Transferred to digital printing 2010 Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Information regarding prices, travel timetables and other factual information given in this work are correct at the time of first printing but Cambridge University Press does not guarantee the accuracy of such information thereafter. Contents List of Tables page vii List of Figures ix Preface xi Part I: The American Welfare Regime Introduction: American Exceptionalism Revisited 5 1 The Politics of Public and Private Social Benefits 28 Part II: The Politics of Public and Private Pensions Introduction 71 2 Connected at Birth: Public and Private Pensions Before 1945 8 5 3 Sibling Rivalry: Public and Private Pensions After 1945 I24 Part IE: The Politics of Public and Private Health Insurance Introduction 179 4 Seeds of Exceptionalism: Public and Private Health Insurance Before 1945 I9I 5 The Elusive Cure: Public and Private Health Insurance After 1945 221 Part IV: The Formation and Future of the American Welfare Regime 6 The Formation of the American Welfare Regime 275 7 The Future of the American Welfare Regime 313 Appendix 337 Notes 341 Index 435 Tables 11.1 Welfare-State Types and After-Tax Public and Private Social Spending, 1995 page 19 1.1 The Continuum of Social Policy Approaches 30 1.2 Share of Nonagricultural Private Workers Receiving Health and Pension Benefits, by Earnings, 1998 37 1.3 Distribution of Selected Tax Expenditures, 2000 38 1.4 Average Tax Subsidy for Health Insurance Received by Families, by Income, 1998 39 I2.1 Public and Private Pensions in Selected Nations, 1993 76 2.1 Time of Adoption of Five Major Welfare Programs (U.S. Rank Among 15 Developed Nations) 87 3.1 Social Security Benefit Increases Versus Price and Wage Levels, 19 50-1974 141 3.2 Social Security Replacement Rates, 1940-2040 143 3.3 Sources of Income Among Aged Units, 1990 155 3.4 Sources of Income Among Aged Units, by Quintile of Income, 1990 156 3.5 Distribution of Aggregate Income Among Aged Units, by Source and Quintile of Income, 1990 156 3.6 Share of Workers Participating in 4oi(k) Pension Plans, 1991 169 3.7 Individual Retirement Account Participation, by Earnings, 1992 169 I3.1 Health Spending and Coverage in Selected OECD Countries, 1995 185 5.1 Basic Features of the British, Canadian, and U.S. Medical Systems, 1960-1990 252 7.1 Growth of U.S. Private Social Expenditures Versus Growth of Public Expenditures, 1950-1994 317 A.i Public and Private Social Welfare Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP in Eleven Nations, 1995 338 Figures 11.1 Public Social Welfare Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP in Eleven Nations, 1995 P#ge 14 11.2 After-Tax Public and Private Social Welfare Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP in Eleven Nations, 1995 15 11.3 After-Tax Public Spending Versus After-Tax Private Spending as a Percentage of GDP, 1995 17 11.4 Private and Public Social Welfare Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP, 1950-1994 20 1.1 Distinguishing Public and Private Social Benefits 31 1.2 Four Dimensions of Variation Among Approaches 35 1.3 Institutional Fragmentation and the Private Share of Social Spending 47 12.1 Occupational Pension and Old-Age Insurance Benefits as a Share of Combined Benefits, 1950-1996 78 12.2 Share of Americans Covered by Social Security and Occupational Pensions, 1940-1988 j ^ 2.1 Share of Private Civilian Labor Force Covered by Private Pensions, 1905-1995 89 3.1 Pension Contributions and Benefits as a Share of Total Compensation, 1948-1996 154 3.2 Individual Retirement Account and 401 (k) Plan Assets as a Percentage of GDP, 1985-2000 167 I3.1 Share of Americans Covered by Public and Private Health Insurance and Pensions, 1940-1995 186 4.1 Share of U.S. Population with Private Health Insurance, 1940-1995 214 5.1 Share of Americans Covered by Private Health Insurance and Medicare/Medicaid, 1940-199 5 262 7.1 U.S. Federal Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP, 1962- 2000 316