The Decentralized Energy Revolution This page intentionally left blank The Decentralized Energy Revolution Business Strategies for a New Paradigm Christoph Burger and Jens Weinmann © Christoph Burger & Jens Weinmann 2013 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2013 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN: 978–1–137–27069–6 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 Printed and bound in Great Britain by CPI Antony Rowe, Chippenham and Eastbourne Cover image: Stylized detail of the US electricity distribution grid Contents List of Figures ix List of Boxes x Acknowledgments xi List of Abbreviations xii Introduction: Decentralized Energy as a Disruptive Innovation 1 The design of the future energy system 1 How to read this book 4 1 Empowerment Paradigm – The Age of the Prosumer 7 Technological drivers 11 Regulatory drivers 13 Empowerment drivers 14 Agents of change 15 2 Small Is Beautiful 17 Theoretical framing 17 Industry development 17 Innovation competence of incumbents 18 Micro CHP 19 The efficiency advantage 19 Exploiting scarcity pricing in the wholesale market: virtual power plants (LichtBlick) 32 Manufacturing synergies and economies of scale (Volkswagen) 41 Micro turbines 51 Aviation technology for the energy market 51 Market entry and sales strategies (Greenvironment) 54 Cooperations and alliances (Greenvironment and Viessmann) 58 Findings on micro CHPs and micro turbines 61 3 The Rise of Island Systems 64 Theoretical framing 64 Capabilities and collective empowerment 64 Race to the top and strategic differentiation 66 Bioenergy villages 68 The countryside strikes back 68 v vi Contents Ownership and participatory processes (Jühnde) 69 Information dissemination and Smart Community consulting (Jühnde) 77 Recommunalization 80 The concept of citizen value (SWK, SWU, GASAG) 80 Findings on empowerment and recommunalization 84 4 Smart Management of Electricity and Information 87 Theoretical framing 88 Network externalities 88 Standardization and lock-in effects 89 Smart grid 91 The feed-in induced revolution (Siemens, EnBW Regional, and ODR) 93 ICT to manage bidirectional power flows (Itron, Argentus, and ODR) 105 Smart meters 110 Competing standards (Itron) 110 Netting peak-shaving and increasing the share of flexible power demand (Itron, SWU, and Siemens) 119 Smart home and cross-selling opportunities (Siemens, E.ON) 125 Findings on smart management of electricity and information 127 5 Local Storage Solutions 131 Stationary storage 131 The alternative to grid renewal 133 Developing the blueprint for carbon-free energy systems (Younicos) 136 Electric vehicles 140 A hype revisited 140 Combining lead markets and lead suppliers (Daimler) 144 Findings on stationary storage and electric vehicles 149 6 Enabling Negawatts 150 Theoretical framing 150 Inelastic demand for durable goods 153 Split incentives and the principal-agent dilemma 155 Transaction costs and incomplete contracts 156 Building efficiency 158 Technological progress driven by standards? 158 Creating lasting ties with the building owner (co2online) 164 Energy performance contracting 169 From engineering to economics 169 Contents vii Product standardization as the key to customer management (Argentus) 178 Risk reduction via guaranteed energy savings (Argentus) 181 Findings on building efficiency and energy performance contracting 183 7 Insights from Germany for a Decentralized Energy Future 185 1 The decentralization snowball 185 2 Emotionalization of energy 186 3 From single technologies to systemic viability 187 4 Exploiting market volatility 188 5 Guidance in the information tsunami 189 6 From optimizing to satisficing 189 7 Innovation and dissemination networks 190 8 The right sequencing of the energy transformation 191 9 From unbundling to rebundling 192 10 Public service obligation for transparency 193 Appendix: Company and Interviewee Profiles 194 Argentus 194 Konrad Jerusalem 194 Bioenergy village Jühnde 195 Eckhard Fangmeier 195 co2online 196 Johannes Dietrich Hengstenberg 196 Daimler 197 Ulrich Müller 197 E.ON 198 Eckhardt Rümmler 198 EnBW Regional 199 Michael Kirsch 199 GASAG 200 Andreas Prohl 200 Greenvironment 201 Radu Anghel 201 Itron 202 Karsten Peterson 202 Werner Paech 202 LichtBlick 203 Ralph Kampwirth 203 ODR 204 Frank Hose 204 Siemens 205 Michael Weinhold 205 viii Contents Stadtwerke Krefeld 206 Carsten Liedtke 206 Stadtwerke Unna 207 Christian Jänig 207 Viessmann 208 Manfred Greis 208 VW 209 Jürgen Willand 209 Younicos 209 Alexander Voigt 210 Notes 211 References 213 Key concepts, persons and technologies 219 Companies and organizations 221 List of Figures 1.1 Energy system trajectory 8 2.1 Efficiency gains of cogeneration, compared to conventional methods 20 2.2 The China Pavilion, an energy-saving building at the Expo 2010 in Shanghai 22 2.3 Residential fuel cell unit used in the ENE-Farm initiative 27 2.4 Global micro CHP unit sales by technology 28 2.5 Industrial production of micro CHP units at Volkswagen 46 2.6 Quiet Revolution turbine at Environment Energy Centre, Leyland 50 2.7 Micro turbine CHP plant with biogas in Muntscha 53 2.8 Recharging with the Nuru Power Cycle 62 3.1 Energy-supply concept of the bioenergy village Jühnde 68 3.2 Samsø’s main energy production sites 70 3.3 Jühnde villagers in a meeting next to the biogas plant 76 3.4 Proposed master plan of Masdar City 79 3.5 Solar thermal heating in Dezhou 85 4.1 The externality problem with the design of smart grids 89 4.2 Components of the smart grid 92 4.3 Ownership of decentralized energy generation units in Germany 100 4.4 Smart metering solution by Siemens 113 4.5 Smart home vision by General Electric 125 6.1 McKinsey abatement-cost curve for the buildings sector in Germany, year 2020 152 6.2 Share of German heating systems replaced annually 154 6.3 Energy efficiency measures implemented in commercial buildings 158 6.4 Celebration at Druk White Lotus School, India 170 6.5 The concept of energy performance contracting 172 ix