fm JWBK143-Briese February27,2008 19:42 CharCount=0 The Commitments of Traders Bible How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence STEPHEN BRIESE JohnWiley&Sons,Inc. fm JWBK143-Briese February27,2008 19:42 CharCount=0 fm JWBK143-Briese February27,2008 19:42 CharCount=0 The Commitments of Traders Bible fm JWBK143-Briese February27,2008 19:42 CharCount=0 Foundedin1807,JohnWiley&Sonsistheoldestindependentpublishingcompanyinthe UnitedStates.WithofficesinNorthAmerica,Europe,Australia,andAsia,Wileyisglob- allycommittedtodevelopingandmarketingprintandelectronicproductsandservices forourcustomers’professionalandpersonalknowledgeandunderstanding. The Wiley Trading series features books by traders who have survived the mar- ket’s ever changing temperament and have prospered—some by reinventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional, or somewhere in-between,thesebookswillprovidetheadviceandstrategiesneededtoprospertoday andwellintothefuture. Foralistofavailabletitles,pleasevisitourWebsiteatwww.WileyFinance.com. fm JWBK143-Briese February27,2008 19:42 CharCount=0 The Commitments of Traders Bible How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence STEPHEN BRIESE JohnWiley&Sons,Inc. fm JWBK143-Briese February27,2008 19:42 CharCount=0 Copyright(cid:1)C 2008byStephenBriese.Allrightsreserved. PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey. PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformorby anymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanning,orotherwise,exceptaspermittedunder Section107or108ofthe1976UnitedStatesCopyrightAct,withouteitherthepriorwrittenpermissionofthe Publisher,orauthorizationthroughpaymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeetotheCopyrightClearanceCenter, Inc.,222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,(978)750-8400,fax(978)646-8600,orontheWebat www.copyright.com.RequeststothePublisherforpermissionshouldbeaddressedtothePermissions Department,JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030,(201)748-6011,fax(201)748-6008, oronlineathttp://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthorhaveusedtheirbesteffortsin preparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswithrespecttotheaccuracyorcompleteness ofthecontentsofthisbookandspecificallydisclaimanyimpliedwarrantiesofmerchantabilityorfitnessfora particularpurpose.Nowarrantymaybecreatedorextendedbysalesrepresentativesorwrittensalesmaterials. Theadviceandstrategiescontainedhereinmaynotbesuitableforyoursituation.Youshouldconsultwitha professionalwhereappropriate.Neitherthepublishernorauthorshallbeliableforanylossofprofitorany othercommercialdamages,includingbutnotlimitedtospecial,incidental,consequential,orotherdamages. Forgeneralinformationonourotherproductsandservicesorfortechnicalsupport,pleasecontactour CustomerCareDepartmentwithintheUnitedStatesat(800)762-2974,outsidetheUnitedStatesat(317) 572-3993orfax(317)572-4002. Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsinprintmaynotbe availableinelectronicbooks.FormoreinformationaboutWileyproducts,visitourWebsiteatwww.wiley.com. ISBN978-0-470-17842-3 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 fm JWBK143-Briese February27,2008 19:42 CharCount=0 To my father, E. Elliott Briese (1924–1991) fm JWBK143-Briese February27,2008 19:42 CharCount=0 fm JWBK143-Briese February27,2008 19:42 CharCount=0 Contents List of Illustrations xiii List of Tables xix Preface xxi Acknowledgments xxv PART I COT Theory CHAPTER 1 The COT—Assorted History 3 TheGrainFuturesAdministration 3 TheCommodityExchangeAuthority 4 TheCommodityFuturesTradingCommission 5 TheModernCOTData 6 COTOptions and Futures Combined Report 8 COT-Supplemental Commodity Index TraderReport 9 AFable 11 CHAPTER 2 COT Reports—Counting 1, 2, 3 ... 15 TheLongForm 17 TheShortForm 23 COT-Supplemental Commodity IndexReport 24 CHAPTER 3 Player Introductions 27 SizingThemUp 27 TheReportingSystem 31 CommercialHedgers 31 LargeSpeculators 33 CommodityIndexTraders 34 SmallTraders 36 vii