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The Coming Economic Implosion of Saudi Arabia PDF

314 Pages·2018·3.11 MB·English
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THE COMING ECONOMIC IMPLOSION OF SAUDI ARABIA A Behavioral Perspective David Cowan The Coming Economic Implosion of Saudi Arabia David Cowan The Coming Economic Implosion of Saudi Arabia A Behavioral Perspective David Cowan Boston College Boston, MA, USA ISBN 978-3-319-74708-8 ISBN 978-3-319-74709-5 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74709-5 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018934724 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and trans- mission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover illustration: Glyn Thomas / Alamy Stock Photo Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland To Hanny, David and Yasmin with love and thanks Preface In this book, I offer up the possibility of the implosion of Saudi Arabia, with the current economic situation it faces as the catalyst for this implo- sion. The Saudi monarchy and government are I believe aware of this possibility, though they may believe it to be more remote than I suggest by my title. Certainly the common Western perception is that such a failure is highly unlikely, but I suggest such a view in the academy is back- ward looking and complacent. Speaking to Saudis in different places, there is a concern that failure is a real possibility balanced by an optimism that God willing there will be success. The monarchy and government leadership are taking action, but I provide here an argument that posits more is needed. Analyzing the problems Saudi faces means understand- ing the economic, political and religious dimensions of the Kingdom. To do this requires an interdisciplinary approach of economic, political and religious disciplines, which I have humbly sought to provide. I say hum- bly, because no doubt, as with all interdisciplinary works, I may have missed some nuance and the various disciplinary experts will want to qualify some of my arguments. I ask their indulgence in order that all readers may see the bigger, albeit speculative, picture of what is a complex situation in a Kingdom beset with apparent contradictions. My conclu- sion may surprise some, in that I am suggesting in this era typified by secularism and Islamophobia that Saudi needs to be more Islamic rather than less so. As a Christian theologian by training, this may seem even vii viii Preface more odd. However, I suggest that thinking more deeply about Islamic solutions to the problem the Kingdom faces will create a balance between the culture and the economic problems in the context of globalization. To this end, I offer a six-point agenda for discussion in the hope that this book will reach places where this dialogue is needed. I have written, worked and thought about Islamic economics and soci- eties for over two decades, my first writing appearing on the subject in the early 1990s. The last five years have been spent working in Saudi Arabia, training leaders and managers in one of the Kingdom’s top corporations. Any errors in understanding are mine, but I have learned much from hundreds of discussions formal and informal with Saudi colleagues. There are many I could list, but I will single out two in particular to mention: first, my good friend Hisham in Riyadh and second I am indebted to conversations with Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud. I am also indebted to the Boisi Center for Religion and American Public Life at Boston College, which provided me with an intellectual home as a visiting scholar. Thanks go to Erik Owens, Associate Director, for his professional and personal friendship while at the Center, Alan Wolfe founder of the Center and administrator Susan Richard who was always on hand to help. Grateful thanks go also to my research assistant at Boisi, Alison Hiatt. The Boisi Center co-hosted with the Islamic Civilization and Societies Program and the Winston Center for Leadership and Ethics at Boston College my paper “Setting the Agenda for Global Dialogue: A Theoretical and Practical Approach to Business Ethics in Saudi Arabia,” where I was able to outline some of the arguments and the six-point agenda pursued in this volume. My thanks go to the Islamic Civilization and Societies Program Associate Director Kathleen Bailey for her support. That lecture subsequently became a paper at the Gulf Research Meeting 2015 held at Cambridge University and subsequently published. I am indebted to Mohamed A.  Ramady, Visiting Associate Professor, Finance and Economics, at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Saudi Arabia, for his support and encouragement in thinking through the agenda I proposed there. As ever there are the most personal debts, by which I refer to my fam- ily. My wife Hanny has given me her usual stellar support for my work, Prefac e ix and without her I could not do what I do. My children David and Yasmin always have my deep love and support and I remain proud of everything they do. Boston, MA, USA David Cowan Contents 1 Saudis Misbehaving? 1 Part I Economic Implosion 21 2 Revolution or Obituary? 23 3 Deconstructing the Saudi Economy 53 4 The Islamic Welfare State 79 Part II Political Implosion 103 5 Oil Dependency and Cold War Politics 105 6 A Theocracy Under Threat 133 7 A Changing Political Theology 159 xi xii Contents Part III Religious Implosion 181 8 No Democracy Please, We’re Saudis 183 9 Fideism I 205 10 Fideism II 231 Part IV Conclusion 251 11 Theocracy and Secularization 253 12 An Islamic Behavioral Perspective 279 Index 311

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The kingdom of Saudi Arabia is at a crossroads economically, and faces the challenge of a weakening economy that could implode before 2030, the year set as a timetable by the kingdom in its Vision 2030. How it navigates its way out of these economic troubles demands understanding a complex of religi
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