The Coming China Wars: Where They Will Be Fought and How They Can Be Won

286 Pages·2006·10.21 MB·English

by  Peter Navarro

The Coming
China Wars
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The Coming
China Wars
Where They Will Be Fought
and How They Can Be Won
Peter Navarro
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Printed in the United States of America
First Printing October, 2006
ISBN 0-13-228128-7
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Navarro, Peter.
The coming China wars : where they will be fought and how they will be won / Peter
Navarro.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-13-228128-7 (hardback : alk. paper) 1. China—Foreign economic relations.
2. China—Foreign relations—Forecasting. 3. China—Commercial policy.
4. Globalization—Economic aspects—China. 5. China—Economic policy—2000- 6.
China—Politics and government—2002- 7. International economic relations. I. Title.
HF1604.N38 2006
337.51—dc22
2006014209
D
EDICATION
One of the consequences of raising children in this world is that they
make you think a lot more about the future. Because of the storms
brewing in China, the future our children now face appears to be, at
best, highly uncertain. At worst, it could be one that the philosopher
Thomas Hobbes might describe as “nasty” and “brutish”—if no
longer short.
Threats of terrorism and some nuclear or biological cataclysm are
not at the epicenter of my concern about the future. Although these
threats are all too real, as a professional economist, I must leave them
to be pondered and parsed and, I hope, countered by qualified polit-
ical and military strategists.
Rather, as a professional economist, what deeply concerns me is a
single country—China. China has put itself on a collision course with
the rest of the world. The Coming China Wars will be fought over
everything from decent jobs, livable wages, and leading edge tech-
nologies to strategic resources such as oil, copper, and steel, and even-
tually to our most basic of all needs—bread, water, and air. Unless all
of the nations of this world—including China—immediately address
these impending conflicts, the results will be catastrophic.
This book is dedicated to preventing that catastrophe—and to the
children. May they not be engulfed by the maelstrom.
The art of war is of vital importance to the State.
It is a matter of life and death, a road either to
safety or to ruin. Hence it is a subject of inquiry
which can on no account be neglected.
—Sun Tzu, The Art of War
C
ONTENTS
About the Author ix
Introduction xi
Chapter 1: The “China Price” and Weapons of Mass
Production 1
Chapter 2: China’s Counterfeit Economy and
Not-So-Swashbuckling Pirates 21
Chapter 3: Killing Us (and Them) Softly With Their
Coal 45
Chapter 4: The “Blood for Oil” Wars—The Sum of
All Chinese Fears 65
Chapter 5: The “New Imperialist” Wars and
Weapons of Mass Construction 87
Chapter 6: The 21st Century Opium Wars—The
World’s Emperor of “Precursor
Chemicals” 109
Chapter 7: The Damnable Dam Wars and Drums
along the Mekong 129
Chapter 8: The Bread and Water Wars—Nary a
(Clean) Drop to Drink 143
Chapter 9: China’s Wars from Within—The Dragon
Comes Apart at the Seams 157
Chapter 10: Of “Bloodheads,” Gray Dragons, and
Other “Ticking Time Bombs” 177
Chapter 11: How to Fight—And Win!—The Coming
China Wars 199
Acknowledgments 219
Notes 225
Index 249
vii
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A A
BOUT THE UTHOR
Peter Navarro is a business professor at the University of California-
Irvine. He is the author of the path-breaking management book, The
Well-Timed Strategy, and the bestselling investment book If It’s
Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks. His unique and internationally
recognized expertise lies in his “big picture” application of a highly
sophisticated but easily accessible macroeconomic analysis of the
business environment and financial markets for investors and corpo-
rate executives.
Navarro’s articles have appeared in a wide range of publications,
from Business Week, the Los Angeles Times, New York Times, and
Wall Street Journal to the Harvard Business Review, the Sloan
Management Review, and the Journal of Business. Professor Navarro
is a widely sought after and gifted public speaker. He has appeared
frequently on Bloomberg TV and radio, CNN, CNBC, and NPR, as
well as on all three major network news shows.
His free weekly investment newsletter is published at www.
peternavarro.com.
ix