The Coming Biotech Age: The Business of Bio-Materials

291 Pages·1999·1.964 MB·English

by  Richard W. Oliver

Page i
Praise for
TheComing BiotechAge
"The pressure of competition frequently forces executives to focus almost exclusively on current
economic developments in today's markets. In reality, successful economic performance requires an
understanding of technology and its application in markets as they will change over the next several
decades. Fortunately, a new book, The Coming Biotech Age: The Business of Bio-Materials, provides
executives with an excellent framework for assessing the forces that will determine future markets in
their industries."
KENNETH MCLENNAN
Predident
Manufacturer's Alliance/MAPI, Inc.
"A cutting edge look at the key technologies that will drive business in the next millennium. Oliver's
book provides a clear way to stay ahead of the curve."
WILLIAM A. JENKINS
VP, Business and Finance
Cal Tech
"An insightful and stimulating look at how the technologies of biology translate into the economies of
the 21st century."
DR. GEORGE RATHMAN
Chairman
ICOS
"A fascinating book, The Coming Biotech Age: The Business of Bio-Materials will be of interest to
investors and financial advisors alike who are searching for a crystal ball's view into the next exploding
economic wave. Bio-Materials will be to tomorrow's stock market what the Internet and e-business is to
today's. Every investor who wants a glimpse into the next economic explosion should read this book."
DAN COHOLAN
VP & Managing Director, Head, Global Communications & Technology Group, Investment Banking,
RBC Dominion Securities
Royal Bank of Canada
"Professor Oliver's penetrating insight reveals the power and potential of the coming bioterials wave. We
had better learn to surf!"
SHAWN CARTWRIGHT
Consultant
Arthur D. Little
"Biotech is clearly the next big breakthrough technology to drive the economy. Oliver's book takes us
there and explains how and why."
ROBERT M. NEUMEISTER
VP Finance
Intel
"A must read for anyone who wants to understand how biotechnology research is going to improve the
quality of life for everyone."
KEVIN HRUSOVSKY
CEO
Page ii
The Coming Biotech Age
Page iii
Also by Richard W. Oliver
TheShapeofThingstoCome: SevenImperativesforWinningintheNew WorldofBusiness
Page iv
The Coming Biotech Age
The Business of Bio-Materials
Richard W. Oliver
McGraw-Hill
New York San Francisco Washington, D.C. Auckland Bogotá
Caracas Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan
Montreal New Delhi San Juan Singapore
Sydney Tokyo Toronto
Page v
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Oliver, Richard W.
The coming biotech age : the business of bio-materials / Richard W. Oliver.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 0-07-135020-9 (cloth)
1. Biotechnology industriesAorecasting. 2. BiotechnologyAorecasting.
3. BioengineeringAorecasting. 4. Molecular biologyAorecasting. I. Title.
HD9999.B442 044 1999
338.4'76606hc21
99-053282
McGraw-Hill
A DivisionofTheMcGraw-HillCompanies
Copyright 2000 by Richard W. Oliver. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.
Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be
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without the prior written permission of the publisher.
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ISBN 0-07-135020-9
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Page vi
For Kim and Carrie
Their children may live forever.
Page viii
Contents
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction: 1
The Bioterials Century
Bioterials Sci Fi" or Sure Bet? 2
Cells Trump Electrons 3
Bioterials: Conquering Matter 4
The "Periodic Table" of Biology 5
Chapter 1 7
The Twenty-First Century: The Age of Bioterials
The End of the Information Age: Biology Trumps Electronics 7
Bioterials: The New "Hi Tech" 11
Bioterials? 12
GeneBanks: Dreams and Dollars 14
The Bioterials "Genie" 16
GeneFactories: BioEconomics 19
The Economic Laws of Bioterials 19
Industry Asymmetries 21
Transforming Technologies 23
Every Company a Bioterials Company 25
Chapter 2 27
Conquering Matter: Explorations in the Cellular and Subatomic Universe
Biology Trumps Physics and Chemistry 28
Bioterials: Global Scope, World Scale 29
Bioterials Technologies: Spontaneous 31
Bioterials: Systemic 32
Imagining the Unimaginable 33
Chapter 3 39
BioEconomics: The New Laws of Bioterials
From the Farm to the Factory 41
From the Office to the Lab? 43
Bioterials: Endless ReplicationRhe New Economic Paradigm 47
The Atom and the Gene 50
Page ix
Chapter 4 53
The First Law of BioEconomics: The Daily Doubling of Knowledge
The Role of Patents in the Doubling of Knowledge 54
Trends in Biotechnology Patents Since 1977 56
Trends in "Knowledge Doubling Times" Since 1977 57
Chapter 5 61
The Second Law of BioEconomics: The Global Scope of Bioterials Is
Inversely Proportional to Its Subatomic Scale
Technology Spillovers 62
Information Age Spillover: The Computer 65
Classifying Spillovers 66
Unprecedented Bioterials Spillovers 67
Every Cell and Atom a Factory? 69
Bioterials Spillovers: An Atom Deep and a World Wide 69
Major Target Markets for Bioterials Products 70
Mapping the Human Genome and the Periodic Table of the Elements 73
Bio-Materials: Scale, Scope, Importance 78
Chapter 6 79
The Third Law of BioEconomics: Accelerating Vertical Growth Rates
Growth Rates: From Horizontal to Vertical 79
Juliet Was Just 13!: Pushing the Limits of Human Longevity 81
Temporal Compression, Global Diffusion 83
Drug Discovery: From Decades to DaysArom Semesters to Seconds 85
Major Drug Deals: Accelerating Diffusion of Pharmaceutical 86
Products
A Fast and Global FDA? 87
No Time to Blink 88
89