The Clinton presidency: first appraisals

863 Pages·1996·2.27 MB·English

by  Colin Campbell

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Page iii
The Clinton Presidency
First Appraisals
Edited by
Colin Campbell
and
Bert A. Rockman
Chatham House Publishers
Chatham, New Jersey
Page iv
THE CLINTON PRESIDENCY
First Appraisals
Chatham House Publishers, Inc.
Box One, Chatham, New Jersey 07928
Copyright © 1996 by Chatham House Publishers, Inc.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any
means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise,
without the prior permission of the publisher.
Publisher: Edward Artinian
Editor: Christopher J. Kelaher
Production supervisor: Katharine F. Miller
Jacket and cover design: Lawrence Ratzkin
Composition: Bang, Motley, Olufsen
Printing and binding: R.R. Donnelley and Sons Company
LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-
PUBLICATION DATA
The Clinton presidency : first appraisals / edited by Colin Campbell
and Bert A. Rockman.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 1-56643-013-5 (cloth).ISBN 1-56643-014-3 (paper)
1. United StatesPolitics and government1993- .2. Clinton,
Bill, 1946- . I. Campbell, Colin, 1943- .II. Rockman, Bert A.
E885.C55 1996
973.929'092dc20 95-22611
CIP
Manufactured in the United States of America
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
Page v
Contents
Introduction 1
Colin Campbell and Bert A. Rockman
1. Campaigning to Govern: The Clinton Style 15
Charles O. Jones
2. Management in a Sandbox: Why the Clinton White 51
House Failed to Cope with Gridlock
Colin Campbell
3. Trying to Govern Positively in a Negative Era: Clinton 88
and the 103rd Congress
Barbara Sinclair
4. Clinton's Legal Policy and the Courts: Rising from 126
Disarray or Turning Around and Around?
David M. O'Brien
5. The Federal Executive under Clinton 163
Joel D. Aberbach
6. The Parties, the President, and the 1994 Midterm 188
Elections
Harold W. Stanley
Page vi
7. The Clinton Administration and Interest Groups 212
Graham K. Wilson
8. Frustration and Folly: Bill Clinton and the Public 234
Presidency
George C. Edwards III
9. Domestic Policy: The Trials of a Centrist Democrat 262
Paul J. Quirk and Joseph Hinchliffe
10. Clinton's Foreign Policy at Midterm 290
Larry Berman and Emily O. Goldman
11. Leadership Style and the Clinton Presidency 325
Bert A. Rockman
12. Realignment Lives: The 1994 Earthquake and Its 363
Implications
Walter Dean Burnham
Index 397
About the Contributors 407
Page vii
Tables and Figures
Tables
1.1 Presidents Are Not Created Equal 17
1.2 Cases of the President's Party Experiencing a Net 20
Loss of Seats, House and/or Senate, 190092
1.3 Sequence of Cabinet Secretarial and Major White 24
House Appointments, Clinton Transition
1.4 President Clinton's Postinaugural Travel: 31
February 1993 through August 1994
1.5 Issue Topics for Appearances by President 32
Clinton: February 1993 through August 1994
1.6 Approval and Disapproval Ratings for President 33
Clinton, Quarterly Averages
1.7 Major Legislation Enacted, Postwar Elected 41
Presidents (first two years)
4.1 Filling Vacancies on the Federal Bench: The First134
Year
4.2 Number of Judicial Appointments from 136
Eisenhower to Clinton
4.3 A Profile of Presidential Appointees to the 137
Federal Courts
4.4 Distribution of Judgeships on U.S. District 144
Courts by Appointing President, as of 14 October
1994
4.5 Distribution of Judgeships on U.S. Courts of 145
Appeals by Appointing President, as of 14 October
1994
5.1 Presidential Appointments Confirmed by the 171
Senate, First Year of Each Administration, Carter to
Clinton
8.1 Average Clinton Approval, 199394 238
12.1 Gubernatorial Election Outcomes, 1994 366
12.2 Trends in the Aggregate Structure of Incumbent 368
Success in Congressional Elections, Selected Years,
194094
12.3 The Historical Panorama: Incidence of d/sd 377
Values of 3 and Over by Office, 1790/18341994
Page viii
12.4 Intergroup Shearing-Off Effects: Values of d/sd 378
of 3 and More (pro-Republican) and Top 13 Pro-
Democratic Displacements, 1994 Congressional
Election
Appendix Table. General Distribution of Election 391
Outcomes by Value (+ or -) of d/sd,
1790/18341994
Figures
1.1 Presidential Approval Scores, Gallup Poll, First 34
Seven Quarterly Averages
1.2 Clinton and the Economy: Quarterly Averages 35
6.1 Clinton's Presidential Approval Ratings, 199394 196
6.2 Democratic and Republican Party Identification, 201
198194
8.1 Clinton Presidential Approval 237
Page 1
Introduction
Colin Campbell and Bert A. Rockman
This volume follows on one we published in 1991 assessing the Bush
presidency at midterm. A great deal has happened in the intervening
four years, the most surprising being that George Bush is no longer
president. Bush's failure to win reelection seemed unlikely at the time
and so should sober anyone inclined to write off Bill Clinton in 1996.
When our volume on his presidency was going to press, Bush was
reaping the benefits of a huge rally effect based on the ousting of
Saddam Hussein's forces from Kuwait through Operation Desert
Storm. Although he had given a lackluster performance in domestic
policy, the public seemed to expect not much more than this. It
seemed that Bush had called it right. In an age of fiscal constraint, the
public would excuse the president for focusing on his commander-in-
chief role at the expense of his chief legislator role. In fact, the ink had
hardly dried on the Bush volume when the public mood soured in the
midst of an economic downturn and began to view Bush less
charitably for his lack of attention to domestic matters. Among other
issues that he was especially criticized for neglecting was the future of
health care. Public opinion and political fate can both be fickle.
Rivaling the demise of the Bush administration for surprise value was
the ascendancy of Bill Clinton to the Oval Office. When Clinton
announced his candidacy in the fall of 1991, Campbell was
approached by his university's student newspaper to offer his views.
Throwing caution to the winds, he proclaimed that most Democrats
will view Bill Clinton as a Republican in Democrat's clothing, so he
doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell in the [Democratic Party]
primaries. There was a kernel of truth in this assessment; we are still,
after all, debating Clinton's true political colors. Nevertheless, Bill