HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT VOLUME 18 ISSUE 7 JANUARY 2014 ISSN 1366-5278 The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ablative therapies in the management of liver metastases: systematic review and economic evaluation Emma Loveman, Jeremy Jones, Andrew J Clegg, Joanna Picot, Jillian L Colquitt, Diana Mendes, David J Breen, Emily Moore, Steve George, Graeme Poston, David Cunningham, Theo Ruers and John Primrose DOI 10.3310/hta18070 The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ablative therapies in the management of liver metastases: systematic review and economic evaluation Emma Loveman,1 Jeremy Jones,1 Andrew J Clegg,1 Joanna Picot,1 Jillian L Colquitt,1 Diana Mendes,1 David J Breen,2 Emily Moore,3 Steve George,4* Graeme Poston,5 David Cunningham,6 Theo Ruers7 and John Primrose8 1SouthamptonHealthTechnologyAssessmentsCentre,UniversityofSouthampton, Southampton, UK 2Department of Radiology, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK 3University of Southampton Clinical Trials Unit, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK 4Public Health Sciences and Medical Statistics, University of Southampton Faculty of Medicine, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK 5University of Liverpool, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, UK 6Gastrointestinal Unit, Royal Marsden Hospital, London, UK 7Division of Surgical Oncology, the Netherlands Cancer Institute – Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, the Netherlands 8University Surgery, University of Southampton Faculty of Medicine, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK *Corresponding author Declared competing interests of authors: All authors have completed the unified competing interest formatwww.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf(availableonrequestfromthecorrespondingauthor).DrDBreen hasundertakenconsultancyforGalilMedicalLtd;ProfessorDCunningham’sinstitutionhasreceivedgrants from Amgen Inc. and Merck & Co. Inc.; Professor G Poston has received payment for lectures from pharmaceutical companies and royalties from books. All other authors declare (1) no financial support for thesubmittedwork from anyoneotherthantheiremployer;(2)nofinancial relationships withcommercial entities that might have an interest in the submitted work; (3) no spouses, partners, or children with relationships with commercial entities that might have an interest in the submitted work; and (4) no non-financial interests that may be relevant to the submitted work. Published January 2014 DOI: 10.3310/hta18070 This report should be referenced as follows: Loveman E, Jones J, Clegg AJ, Picot J, Colquitt JL, Mendes D, et al.The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ablative therapies in themanagement of liver metastases: systematic review and economic evaluation. HealthTechnol Assess 2014;18(7). 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Editor-in-Chief of Health Technology Assessment and NIHR Journals Library Professor Tom Walley Director, NIHR Evaluation, Trials and Studies and Director of the HTA Programme, UK NIHR Journals Library Editors Professor Ken Stein Chair of HTA Editorial Board and Professor of Public Health, University of Exeter Medical School, UK Professor Andree Le May Chair of NIHR Journals Library Editorial Group (EME, HS&DR, PGfAR, PHR journals) Dr Martin Ashton-Key Consultant in Public Health Medicine/Consultant Advisor, NETSCC, UK Professor Matthias Beck Chair in Public Sector Management and Subject Leader (Management Group), Queen’s University Management School, Queen’s University Belfast, UK Professor Aileen Clarke Professor of Health Sciences, Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, UK Dr Tessa Crilly Director, Crystal Blue Consulting Ltd, UK Dr Peter Davidson Director of NETSCC, HTA, UK Ms Tara Lamont Scientific Advisor, NETSCC, UK Professor Elaine McColl Director, Newcastle Clinical Trials Unit, Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, UK Professor William McGuire Professor of Child Health, Hull York Medical School, University of York, UK Professor Geoffrey Meads Honorary Professor, Business School, Winchester University and Medical School, University of Warwick, UK Professor Jane Norman Professor of Maternal and Fetal Health, University of Edinburgh, UK Professor John Powell Consultant Clinical Adviser, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), UK Professor James Raftery Professor of Health Technology Assessment, Wessex Institute, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, UK Dr Rob Riemsma Reviews Manager, Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd, UK Professor Helen Roberts Professorial Research Associate, University College London, UK Professor Helen Snooks Professor of Health Services Research, Institute of Life Science, College of Medicine, Swansea University, UK Please visit the website for a list of members of the NIHR Journals Library Board: www.journalslibrary.nihr.ac.uk/about/editors Editorial contact: [email protected] NIHRJournalsLibrary www.journalslibrary.nihr.ac.uk DOI:10.3310/hta18070 HEALTHTECHNOLOGYASSESSMENT2014 VOL. 18 NO.7 Abstract The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ablative therapies in the management of liver metastases: systematic review and economic evaluation Emma Loveman,1 Jeremy Jones,1 Andrew J Clegg,1 Joanna Picot,1 Jillian L Colquitt,1 Diana Mendes,1 David J Breen,2 Emily Moore,3 Steve George,4* Graeme Poston,5 David Cunningham,6 Theo Ruers7 and John Primrose8 1Southampton Health Technology Assessments Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK 2Department of Radiology, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK 3UniversityofSouthamptonClinicalTrialsUnit,UniversityHospitalSouthampton,Southampton,UK 4Public Health Sciences and Medical Statistics, University of Southampton Faculty of Medicine, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK 5University of Liverpool, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, UK 6Gastrointestinal Unit, Royal Marsden Hospital, London, UK 7Division of Surgical Oncology, the Netherlands Cancer Institute – Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, the Netherlands 8University Surgery, University of Southampton Faculty of Medicine, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK *Corresponding author Background:Many deaths from cancer are caused by metastatic burden. Prognosis and survival rates vary, but survival beyond 5years of patients with untreated metastatic disease in the liver is rare. Treatment for liver metastases has largely been surgical resection, but this isfeasible in only approximately 20–30% of people. Non-surgical alternatives to treat some liver metastases can include various forms of ablative therapies and other targeted treatments. Objectives:To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of thedifferent ablativeand minimally invasive therapies for treating liver metastases. Data sources: Electronicdatabases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library were searched from 1990 to September 2011. Experts were consulted and bibliographies checked. Review methods:Systematicreviews of the literature wereundertakento appraise the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ablative therapies and minimallyinvasivetherapies used for people with liver metastases. Studies were any prospective study with sample size greaterthan 100 participants. Aprobabilistic modelwas developed for theeconomicevaluation of the technologies where data permitted. Results: The evidence assessing the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ablativeand other minimally invasive therapies was limited. Nine studies of ablative therapies were included in the review; each had methodological shortcomings and few had a comparator group. Onerandomised controlled trial (RCT) of microwave ablation versus surgical resection was identifiedand showedno improvementin ©Queen’sPrinterandControllerofHMSO2014.ThisworkwasproducedbyLovemanetal.underthetermsofacommissioningcontractissuedbytheSecretaryofStatefor Health.Thisissuemaybefreelyreproducedforthepurposesofprivateresearchandstudyandextracts(orindeed,thefullreport)maybeincludedinprofessionaljournals vii providedthatsuitableacknowledgementismadeandthereproductionisnotassociatedwithanyformofadvertising.Applicationsforcommercialreproductionshouldbe addressedto:NIHRJournalsLibrary,NationalInstituteforHealthResearch,Evaluation,TrialsandStudiesCoordinatingCentre,AlphaHouse,UniversityofSouthamptonScience Park,SouthamptonSO167NS,UK. ABSTRACT outcomescomparedwith resection.In two prospective case series studies that investigated the use of laser ablation,mean survival ranged from 41to 58 months. One cohort study compared radiofrequency ablationwith surgical resection and five caseseries studies also investigated theuse of radiofrequency ablation.Across these studies themedian survival ranged from 44 to 52 months. Seven studies of minimallyinvasivetherapies were included in thereview. Two RCTs compared chemoembolisation with chemotherapy only. Overallsurvival was not compared betweengroups and methodological shortcomings mean that conclusions are difficult to make. Two caseseries studies of laser ablation following chemoembolisation were also included; however, these provide little evidenceof the use of these technologies in combination. Three RCTs of radioembolisation were included. Significant improvements in tumour response and time to disease progression were demonstrated; however, benefits in terms of survival were equivocal. An exploratory survival modelwas developed using data from the review of clinical effectiveness. The model includes separate analyses of microwave ablation compared with surgery and radiofrequency ablation compared with surgery and one of radioembolisation in conjunctionwith hepatic artery chemotherapy compared with hepatic artery chemotherapy alone.Microwave ablation was associatedwith an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £3664 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY)gained, with microwave ablationbeing associated with reduced cost but also with poorer outcome than surgery. Radiofrequencyablation compared with surgical resection for solitary metastases <3cm was associated with an ICER of–£266,767 perQALY gained, indicatingthat radiofrequency ablation dominates surgical resection. Radiofrequency ablation compared with surgical resection for solitary metastases≥3cm resulted in poorer outcomes at lower costs and a resultant ICER of £2538 per QALY gained. Radioembolisation plus hepatic artery chemotherapy compared with hepatic artery chemotherapy was associated with an ICER of £37,303 per QALY gained. Conclusions: There iscurrently limited high-quality research evidence upon which to base any firm decisionsregardingablativetherapies for liver metastases. Further trials should compare ablativetherapies with surgery, in particular. A RCT would provide the most appropriate design for undertakingany further evaluationand should include afull economic evaluation, but the groupto be randomised needs carefulselection. Source offunding:Fundingfor this study was providedby the Health Technology Assessment programmeof the National Institute for Health Research. viii NIHRJournalsLibrary www.journalslibrary.nihr.ac.uk
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