The clients for agrometeorological information

16 Pages·2000·0.1 MB·English

AgriculturalandForestMeteorology103(2000)27–42
The clients for agrometeorological information
D.Rijksa;(cid:3),M.W.Baradasb;1
aAgrometeorologicalApplicationsAssociates,B.P.102,F-01213Ferney-VoltaireCedex,France
bPhilippineRiceResearchInstitute,College,Laguna,Philippines
Abstract
Thispaperdealswiththeclientsthatmayuseagrometeorologicalinformation.Thesectionstreatthepossibleidentities
oftheclients,thenatureoftheinformationproductsthattheymayrequest,theproductsthatanagrometeorologicalunitcan
provide,themannerofdeliveryoftheproduct,andtheevaluationofthevalueoftheproducttotheclient.Afairamountof
agrometeorologicalknowledgeis,orcanrelativelyeasilybemadeavailable,butfarfromallisused.Ifagrometeorological
information is communicated to the right client and applied, agrometeorology can help find ‘windows of opportunity’ to
practisesustainable,highqualityagriculturemoreprofitably,withlessrisks,lesscost,andlessenvironmentalpollutionand
damage. Such an application requires a concerted and interdisciplinary approach, whether by the public service or by a
commercialfirm,tooffertheagrometeorologicalproducttotheclient.Therewardmaybegreat,becauseclientsmaypersist
foraverylongtimeandusefulproductsmayhaveanincalculablyfruitfuloutcome.Suchisprovenbytheagrometeorological
informationforthecontrolofpotatoblight(Phytophthorainfestans),nowsuppliedtopotatofarmersallovertheworld:a
single agrometeorological information product, steadily perfected, and persistently used for more than a lifetime of man,
havingpositivelyaffecteduntoldmillionsoflives.©2000ElsevierScienceB.V.Allrightsreserved.
Keywords:Agrometeorology;Clients;Informationproducts;Informationdelivery;Benefitsofinformation
1. Introduction agents that contribute to the degradation of the envi-
ronment"(WMO,1997).
The purpose of the WMO Agricultural Meteorol- Monteith (1993) formulated the subject as a ques-
ogy Programme, formulated in the draft for the 5th tion,thatheconsideredmoreurgentnowthanbefore:
Long Term Plan (5LTP) is “::: to help develop sus- “Howcantheskillswehavedevelopedinoperational,
tainable and economical viable agricultural systems" experimental and theoretical aspects of agricultural
and “::: to improve production and quality, reduce meteorology be more effectively integrated and de-
lossesandrisks,decreasecosts,increaseefficiencyin ployed to make production in systems of agriculture
theuseofwater:::,labourandenergy,conservenat- and forestry more reliable, more efficient and above
uralresources,combatdroughtanddesertificationand allmoreequitableintheworldatlarge".
decrease pollution by agricultural chemicals or other A National Meteorological or other agrometeoro-
logicalservicecancontributetothenationaleconomy,
and best obtain recognition and remuneration for the
investmentsmadeinagriculturalmeteorology,through
(cid:3) Correspondingauthor.Fax:C33-4-50-40-8842.
theeffectiveuseoftheinformationbytheagricultural
E-mailaddress:[email protected](D.Rijks)
1 VisitingScientist(Agrometeorology). community in the widest sense. The measure of suc-
0168-1923/00/$–seefrontmatter©2000ElsevierScienceB.V.Allrightsreserved.
PII:S0168-1923(00)00116-7
28 D.Rijks,M.W.Baradas/AgriculturalandForestMeteorology103(2000)27–42
cesscanbeobtainedthroughtheappreciation,inwhat- (cid:15) A process to ‘match’ the requirements of the users
everform,bythiscommunityoftheservicesrendered. to the meteorological conditions that may exist,
As one of the first steps, it should identify the to optimize the use of all the resources provided
‘clients’, their requirements, and their evaluation of by the weather and the other inputs and to min-
the value of the ‘products’ delivered and then offer imize the influence of adverse conditions (Rijks,
the desired product to the client in the most appro- 1986).
priate manner. The delivery of the products relies on While at one time the meteorological community
the availability of a readily accessible data base, the may have made a distinction between the use of
knowledge of, and access to, an ‘inventory’ of possi- weather and of climate information, a farmer makes
ble application techniques, an infrastructure (trained many decisions by combined use of the two (Rijks,
personnel and the physical means) to produce the 1984):
products, and an appropriate product dissemination
system.Thefine-tuningoftheprocessrequiresacon- Climate Weather
tinuousfeedbackonthetechnical,environmentaland choiceoffarming timing,extentofland
economicbenefitsofthesystem. system preparation,landlayout
Improvements in agricultural production may well choiceofcrops dateofplanting
occurfirstwheretheefficiencyoftheinputsintoagri- choiceofoptimalvariety choiceofalternative
cultureishighest.Suchinputsareofdifferentnature: variety
geneticmaterial,energy,water,adapteduseofthesoil choiceoffarm actualuseofequipment;
andofthelandscapeandplantnutrients,management, equipment day-to-day
and of course the weather. Of all those inputs only farmingoperation
the weather is free of charge (Baradas, 1978), and its choiceofrowwidth within-rowdistanceof
influence has been, perhaps because of that reason, plants
relatively little exploited (Rijks, 1991). User-tailored choiceofirrigation timingandamountof
weather information for planning, adaptation of the watergiven
system, and day-to-day operations involving the choiceofpestcontrol timingandextent
dosage and timing of application of inputs, is one of system ofcontrols
the major factors that can increase the efficiency of
these measures and help to reduce the risks on the Agrometeorologycanplayitsroleiftheclientsper-
investments made. This aspect defines one group of ceivethatitsproductshaveincreasedthevalueoftheir
clients. Another group is involved in general matters agricultural production (potential), and made actual
orinactivitiesthatprecedeorfollowafterproduction production approach the potential at equal cost of in-
has been achieved: marketing, processing, consumer puts.Inshort,clientsmustfeelthattheyarecustomers
orientation, legal and administrative matters and en- ‘buyingthebestdeal’.
vironmentalissues. AppendixAshowsanexampleofvariousmeteoro-
Therelationwiththeclienttakesintoaccount: logicalproductsfromMalaysia,theirusesandclients
(cid:15) A description of the basic factors determining the (Baradas, 1992). These and other subjects will be
atmosphericenvironmentforagriculture(solarradi- elaboratedinthefollowingparagraphs.
ation, temperatures, water availability in all its
forms, humidity, the wind regime and other
characteristics,suchasweather‘hazards’); 2. Whoaretheclients
(cid:15) A description of the requirements for each appli-
cationandclient; 2.1. Definition
(cid:15) A quantitative formulation of the relationships that
existinrespectoftheeffectsofweatheronvegeta- The statement of the purpose of the 5LTP (quoted
tion, soil, open water and animals and the recipro- in the introduction) defines implicitly a majority
cal effects of these ‘surfaces’ on their atmospheric of the ‘clients’ for the information. They may be
environment;and found in different major groups, even though, if
D.Rijks,M.W.Baradas/AgriculturalandForestMeteorology103(2000)27–42 29
one wishes to provide effective service, each client management service, an entity engaged in the con-
must be considered unique in respect of his or her servation of the environment, or any other kind of
requirements. ‘customer’.
The agrometeorologist should know these clients
andtheirgoals:
(cid:15) Is the clients’ interest in benefits in the economic, 2.3. Identificationoftheclient
social,security,sustainability,environment,leisure,
orotherdomains? Toidentifytheclientsinagricultural,livestockhus-
(cid:15) Istheclientapolicymaker,amonitoringagent,or bandryorforestryactivities,itisusefultocontactthe
apractisingproducer,etc.? relevant Ministries, the ‘Chambers of Agriculture’ or
(cid:15) Cantheclient‘pay’individuallyfortheproduct,or equivalentunits,thecommodityinstitutes,orthedis-
will remuneration come through a collectivity, e.g. trictagriculturalandlifestockservices.
a Chamber of Agriculture, a commodity agency, a The identification of the client, and of the prod-
marketingunit,etc.? uct(s)she/herequires,canbemadethroughaprocess
of listening to the requirements of persons in other
disciplines, and through a dialogue about the issues
2.2. Theprofileoftheclient or problems in their work, points that could make
their work safer, easier, more efficient, more reliable,
The initial client may be the applied meteorologist etc.
whoisactingasaclientofthedata-managementme- In some cases one finds that the prospective client
teorologist. To facilitate the work of preparing infor- doesnotknowthatagrometeorologyhasausefulprod-
mation, and to explain its reason and justification to ucttooffer.Talkingwithher/himaboutthoseaspects
thirdparties,theproductthatisdesiredandthatcanbe of the work that are sensitive to meteorology may
‘marketed’ should be defined clearly. So also should make her/him aware of whether she/he could profit
theusethatcanbemadeofit,andthebenefitthatmay from being a customer or not. As a salesperson an
arisefromitsuse. agrometeorologistmustknowtheproducts,described
The client may be another section of one’s own in the clients’ language, that can be ‘sold’ as if the
meteorologicalservice,askingforananalysisofdata. clientisacommercialcustomer,whomustbesatisfied
It may be a government service or a non-government inordertoremainaclient.
service, an information dissemination unit, such as a Finally, a meteorological service may ‘discover’
local radio. It may be a farmer or a group of farmers newclients,throughacontinuingdialoguewithrepre-
or a farmers organization, a plant or animal health sentativesofdifferentspheresoftheagriculturalcom-
protection, forestry or livestock service, a fertilizer munityandthroughthedevelopmentofnewconcepts
company or a soil conservation group. Other clients intheapplicationofagrometeorology.
may be the Ministry of Agriculture or the Ministry
of Planning, e.g. for the development of sustainable
agriculture, for warnings on alarm situations, bush 3. Whatdoestheclientrequire
and forest fires, locust control, for drought allevi-
ation measures, flood control, the planning of the 3.1. Possibleproducts
movement of stocks of food or seeds. It may be an
interest in a national (Baradas and Sutrisno, 1981) Possibleproductsfallintodifferentgroups:
or international crop monitoring activity, such as that (cid:15) Basicdata;
of the FEWS group (Famine Early Warning Sys- (cid:15) Basic data together with an analysis and/or an ad-
tem)intheUS(FEWS,1998),theMARS/SAIgroup visory message for specific applications, possibly
(Monitoring Agriculture with Remote Sensing/Space combined with non-meteorological data, such as
Applications Institute) of the Joint Research Centre thosederivedfromremotesensing;
of the European Union (Vossen and Rijks, 1995), (cid:15) Methods,techniques,softwarepackagesforspecific
an Embassy, a marketing or a post-harvest crop applications.
30 D.Rijks,M.W.Baradas/AgriculturalandForestMeteorology103(2000)27–42
3.2. Basicdata growth, evapotranspiration, crop drying, and for
applications in the sphere of the agricultural in-
Basic data should be presented in an easily inter- frastructure and operations, like the construction
pretableform,theultimateformatanduseofwhichis of animal shelters, animal health care or for farm
lefttothechoiceoftheclient.Apartfromtheelemen- energygenerationandconservation.
taryobservations,theirsumsandtotals,itcanconsist (cid:15) Some of these latter activities also can benefit
ofindividualorcombinedprobabilitiesofvariousme- from better information about humidity and wind
teorological parameters, extreme values, distributions regimes. Furthermore, information on humidity is
intimeorinspace,andcoincidentoccurrenceofcer- a major element in the assessment of the risk of
tain values of different parameters (e.g. temperature occurrence of crop diseases and some crop pests.
andhumidity). Low humidity may inhibit fertilization during
flowering.
3.3. Basicdataplusfurther-analyzedproducts (cid:15) Windregimesmayinfluencelodging,andthusper-
haps the need for ridging, the movement of crop
These are basic data accompanied by worked-up and animal pests and their control. Extreme winds
dataand/oranadvisorymessagethatputthebasicdata may cause significant damage to fruit trees (Mel-
intoaspecific-application-orientedperspective.There laart et al., 1999). Information on wind regimes is
isagreatnumberofsuchproducts,someofwhichare essentialfortheconstructionofwindbreaksandthe
describedhere: establishmentoffire-breaksinbush-andforest-fire
(cid:15) The probability of rainfall for crop water balance control.
calculations to plan the agricultural system and to (cid:15) Particular aspects of the information required in
assess the possible length of the rainfed cropping the livestock industry include the assessment of
season(Manning,1956;Rijks,1976),andtodecide the potential pasture productivity, of the seasonal
on agricultural activities or processes for different food and water supply and quality, assessment
crops,suchasaccessibilityofthefields,landprepa- of the risk of overgrazing or of bushfires, hay
ration, sowing, germination, weeding, thinning, making, housing, animal health and productiv-
ridgingtopreventlodging,supplementalirrigation, ity, the introduction of highly-productive species
fertilizer application, crop protection measures, and the drying with solar energy of meat and
ripening,harvestingandpost-harvestingoperations fish.
suchasdryingandstorage(e.g.Traoreetal.,1992; (cid:15) The use of energy, one of the most expensive
DirectionNationaledelaMétéorologie,1998). recurrentinputsinagriculture,isdependentonme-
(cid:15) Information for longer-term, infrastructural, teorological information, among others, to become
measures like land-layout for erosion control efficientandeconomicallyviable.
and soil conservation, intercropping systems, (cid:15) The practice of agricultural aviation, for sowing,
contour-ridging for the conservation and use of fertilizer application and surveying in addition to
water (Rijks, 1977). Similar information is needed crop protection, requires (agro)meteorological in-
forthestudyofrelationsincatchmentmanagement formation for the assessment of the needs and the
and for planning of irrigation system layout and potential benefit of an intervention, as well as for
similarstudies. theapplicationoperations.
(cid:15) Information about (extreme) low or high tempera- (cid:15) Foodsecurityprogrammesrequire(agro)meteorolo-
tureregimesandtheirdurationandlocalization,that gical inputs to the crop monitoring activities, and
affectthedevelopmentandgrowthofcropsandan- livestockservicesinputstothemodellingofpoten-
imals,andinsomecasesthestateoftheinfrastruc- tial production of natural grazing areas, which in
tureservingagriculture,thefrequencyoftheriskof turnmayhaveaneffectontranshumance.
occurrence of frost, or of heat stress for crops and Other clients may, in relation to studies of the ef-
livestock. fectsofclimatevariability,orincropmonitoringand
(cid:15) Information about solar radiation and sunshine yield forecasting procedures, need the outlook, the
hours, for the calculation of photosynthesis, crop ‘scenarios’ that could occur (and their probability),
D.Rijks,M.W.Baradas/AgriculturalandForestMeteorology103(2000)27–42 31
following different (agro)meteorological or general (cid:15) Conditions for the selection of different forest
weatherevents. species, their establishment, the risk and incidence
Alongstandingclient,whoseproductrequirements offorestpestsanddiseases,informationontherisk
are constantly evolving, is the agricultural research and for the forecasting of bush and forest fires and
community,composedofthestaffofregional,national forforestfiremanagementpractices;
andinternationalinstitutes.Itisoneofthecommuni- (cid:15) Assessmentofthesolarandwindenergypotential.
tiesinwhichasignificantnumberofpersonsarewell Themajorclientsinthecommercialsector,e.g.the
aware of the benefits of use of agrometeorological processing of food and fiber, have long since estab-
information, and it is a client that can help a national lished their own structure for obtaining, in the most
agrometeorologicalservicetopromoteandexpandthe timelymanner,theagrometeorologicalinformationre-
fieldofapplicationoftheproductdelivered.Oneofthe quired.Analysisofthemethodsusedinthesugar,co-
productsusedfortheapplicationofresultsofresearch coa,coffee,bananaprocessingindustries,tonamebut
istheagro-meteorologicalcharacterizationofregions a few, may enable an agrometeorological service to
(FAO, 1978; Rijks, 1994). Some other examples providesimilarlyusefulinformationtoclientsoutside
are: thesemajorproductioncompanies.Someotherexam-
(cid:15) Quantitative values (maximum, optimum, mini- plesare:
mum)oftherelevantparametersfordifferentcrops: (cid:15) Climatic, probability and forecast information for
(a) of factors that define maximum production the planning of irrigation systems, risks of water
temperature, solar radiation (b) of factors that may shortages, optimization of the water use efficiency
limit production: the water balance, conditions for (the ratio of yield per unit water), information for
nutrient uptake, for weeding, etc (c) of factors that day-to-dayschedulingirrigationschedulingmodels,
reduceproduction:pestsanddiseases; using real-time data and forecasts (e.g. Rijks and
(cid:15) Quantitative values (maximum, optimum, mini- Gbeckor-Kove,1990;Frieslandetal.,1998;Smith,
mum) of the relevant parameters of models of 2000);
development of pests and diseases (Franquin and (cid:15) Information to foresee the optimum time for har-
Rijks, 1983) and of migrant pests (Rainey et al., vesting (e.g. of vine-grapes, Gerbier and Remois,
1990); 1977;Strydom,1999);
(cid:15) Informationonweatherfactors(waterbalance,tem- (cid:15) Information for the improvement of storage
peratureandhumidityregimes,daylength,etc.)that conditions (e.g. of groundnuts in Gambia, Rijks,
help with the selection of varieties adapted to the 1987);
varabilityofthelengthofseason; (cid:15) Information of the risk of occurrence of weather
(cid:15) Parametersdealingwiththechoiceanduseoffarm hazards for crops and animals, hail, frost, hot dry
machinery, fertilizer applications, pest and disease windsthatmaycausesterilizationofpollen,floods,
management; droughtsetc;
(cid:15) Information to implement measures of microcli- (cid:15) Informationonmeteorologicalfactorsthataffectthe
matemanipulationandmodification(Stigter,1988, efficiencyofenergyinputsintoagriculture,whether
1994); the energy be of fossil, human, animal, mechani-
(cid:15) Informationontheprobabilityofcertainconditions cal, thermal, solar (electrical) or chemical nature,
of solar radiation, temperature and water availabil- throughachoiceofoptimumtimingandamountof
ity for the development of intercropping and mul- suchinputs.
tiple cropping systems, so that natural inputs are As regards the social, economic and legal aspects
exploitedoptimally; of agriculture, clients can be policy making (or im-
(cid:15) Information for planning the feasibility and effi- plementing)organizations,representativesofdevelop-
ciency of on-farm water storage facilities (Baradas mentbanksandagencies,technicalcooperationorga-
andSutrisno,1981); nizations,researchgroupsandinstitutes,ororganiza-
(cid:15) Information required for planning agroforestry tions dealing with sustainable development, ecosys-
plantations and for the establishment and manage- temmanagementandenvironmentalissues,wishingto
mentofwindbreaks; considertheuseofmeteorologicalinformationintheir
32 D.Rijks,M.W.Baradas/AgriculturalandForestMeteorology103(2000)27–42
decision making processes. Among the subjects that and expertise in data analysis and product develop-
commandmoreandmoreattentionbytheseclientsis ment (see Section 3.4). Finally, meteorological ser-
the use of meteorological information to promote the vices are often a partner of the agricultural services
efficiencyoftheuseofwaterandenergy,thereduction in the development, description and use of the rela-
ofpollutionandtheconservationoftheenvironment. tionsbetweenmeteorologicalregimesandagricultural
Somefurtherexamplesare: phenomena.
(cid:15) Weather forecasts following food situation assess-
ments made with real-time data, to help determine 4.2. Basicdata
thefoodsecurityoutlook;
(cid:15) Information for the monitoring, and possible fore- The products offered include those obtained from
cast, of floods and droughts and for the alleviation INFOCLIMA, an inventory of available meteorologi-
oftheireffects; calandassociateddata,andCLICOM,awidelyused
(cid:15) Monitoring of desertification, avoidance of over- harmonised system for meteorological data manage-
grazing,salinization,wind-andwater-erosion; ment.
(cid:15) Information for wildlife conservation and manage- Past basic data can be obtained from CLICOM or
ment. another national data bank, and when necessary ba-
sic data can be delivered to clients fairly easily and
3.4. Methods, techniques, software packages for soonafterthemomentofobservationthroughtheGTS
specificapplications (Global Telcommunication System). Other basic data
are obtained from automatic stations or interpreted
For clients that wish to operate their own daily in- from remotely sensed observations, either for their
formation service, agrometeorological services may pointvalue,theirarealextent,orboth.
beaskedtoprovidetestedsoftwarepackages(orparts The basic meteorological data most often used in
thereof),suchasthoseforthecalculationofthewater agrometeorology are observations of rainfall, sun-
balance,forthemonitoringandcontrolofsomepests shine, solar radiation, temperature (of the air, and
anddiseases,orforcropgrowthmonitoring.Another sometimes of the soil and rarely of the water near its
much-demanded product is a reference data bank for surface),humidity,andwindspeedanddirection.
comparing actual data with the mean, with those of These basic data are derived from point observa-
thelastyearorthoseofanyotherperiod. tions,butnotalwayswithoutcertainomissionsinthe
time series. Packages are available that provide sub-
stitute values for missing observations (e.g. Meteo-
4. Some products that an agrometeorological consult,1991),otherpackagescanprovidearea-wide
servicecanoffer estimates based on consideration of a number of
point-values (e.g. van der Voet et al., 1993), and oth-
4.1. Productsavailable ers again provide values of one (missing) parameter
by deduction from observations of other parameters
Meteorological services offer a series of products, (Rijksetal.,1998,andespeciallytheannexes1–14by
ranging from basic data (observed at a worldwide Augter, Choisnel, Gommes, Hough, Keane, LeMeur,
homogeneous network of stations, using a com- MataReis,Oliveira,Parker,SeguinandWendling).
monmethodology),throughelementary-deriveddata, Other basic data concern the observations on the
composite-derived data, to meteorological forecasts occurrence of hail, lightning and other difficult-to-
andclient-specificproducts.Acharacteristicofmany quantify phenomena that may nevertheless have an
of these products is that they are often rather el- impactonagricultureorforestry.
ementary, but usually quality-controlled, and that
they can serve in the way they are made available, 4.3. Deriveddata
often without further transformation or adaptation.
Meteorological Services can also offer a number of Amongthepackagesavailable,tested,user-friendly
well-proven methods, techniques, software packages and rather widely used for transforming these ba-
D.Rijks,M.W.Baradas/AgriculturalandForestMeteorology103(2000)27–42 33
sic, hourly, three-hourly or daily observations, into allitsforms,managementandeconomicandsocialas-
‘values’ of parameters that are more commonly pectsandresults.Asregardsimplementation,itisused
used in agrometeorology, is the INSTAT (INteractive inschedulingsoilpreparation,sowing,weeding,thin-
STATistics) package, developed by Stern and Knock ning, ridging, fertilizer and pest and disease control
(1998)attheUniversityofReading.Itcangivetotals measures,harvestinganddrying.Efficiencyofirriga-
andmeansovervarioustimespans(e.g.themaximum tionisfullydependentontheknowledgeofthewater
and minimum values of temperature, humidity, wind balance and the outlook for its evolution. The water
speed, sunshine hours, solar radiation and rainfall, balanceisoneofthemost‘decisive’componentsina
calculated over the timespan desired by the client). crop monitoring and yield forecasting system. Water
It can also give distributions, extreme values, prob- balanceinformationisusedinthemanagementofthe
abilities of occurrence at certain thresholds, and of food and water supply for livestock, animal health
combinations of values of different parameters (such protection, and the transhumance. It is an essential
aslowhumidityandhighwindspeed,etc.). toolinwatershedandforestrymanagement.
Muchusedamongthesederiveddataarethevalues
of rainfall distribution and probability, the probabil- 4.4. Agrometeorological surveys and
ity of the beginning and the end of the rains, the characterization
probability of receipt of quantified rainfall amounts
in a specified period, or of rain after a moment dur- A number of such surveys has been completed in
ing the season when a certain amount has already the 1960s and 1970s, mostly by the joint efforts of
been received. Further parameters are the values of FAO, Unesco, WMO and later UNEP. These surveys
potential evapo(transpi)ration, stress degree days, were general assessments used for understanding the
and duration of canopy wetness and curves for the agrometeorologyofregionswhereagriculturaldevel-
amount-intensity-durationofrainfall. opment was foreseen. They still retain this general
Many derived parameters rely on inputs from dis- value, but for practical planning purposes they were
ciplines other than meteorology, such as soil science, latercomplementedbyagrometeorologicalclassifica-
plant/cropphysiologyoragronomy.Amongthese,the tions (FAO, 1978) or characterizations (Rijks, 1994),
water balance is perhaps the most frequently calcu- andtheycanbefurtherrefinedusingcomputer-based,
lated.Otherexamplesare: remote sensing assisted, analyses, and such as those
(cid:15) the probability of obtaining the optimal length of possiblewiththeINSTATpackage.
thegrowingseasonforacropwithspecifiedgrowth
characteristics; 4.5. Forecasts
(cid:15) the risk of the occurrence of drought or dry spells
at the beginning, in the middle or at the end of the Therearetwotypesofforecastsusedinagromete-
season; orologicalapplications(Rijks,1978):
(cid:15) the optimal timing for certain agricultural opera- (cid:15) purelymeteorologicalforecastsofexpectedweather
tions;and anditsconsequencesonagriculture;and
(cid:15) the assessment of the need to have available alter- (cid:15) forecastsoftheagrometeorologicalandagricultural
nativeoptions,suchasthechoiceofothervarieties consequencesofobservedweather.
orcrops. Theyareveryoftenusedinconjunction.
Consideration of some of these may give rise to Forecastsofthefirsttypeareobtainedfromthefore-
alerts,warningsoralarms(Keaneetal.,1998). cast unit of the meteorological service. Its interpreta-
Special mention should be made of the practical tion is normally the work of an (agro)meteorologist,
usesofthewaterbalanceinformationintheplanning, or better, of a pluridisciplinary agro-meteorological
implementation,monitoringandforecastingaspectsof group. In some cases, such as the Agromet on-line
agriculture.Itisanessentialtoolinplanningvirtually individual advisory products in Germany (Dommer-
all components of agricultural, lifestock and forestry muth,1999),theseforecastsareregularlyupdatedand
production systems, including the manner of use of contain specific agrometeorological prognosis data,
theotherinputs,land-use,geneticmaterial,energyin and even advisories on hail derived from remotely
34 D.Rijks,M.W.Baradas/AgriculturalandForestMeteorology103(2000)27–42
senseddata.Das(1999)mentionsagrowinginterestin productswillbeagrowingresourceforthesupplyof
theissueofseasonalforecasts.Currentlymostskillin agrometeorologicalproductstoclients.
seasonalforecastingisachievedinthetropicsandsub-
tropicsandisespeciallyhighinElNinoyears(Ogallo
4.7. Resultsofresearch
et al., 2000). In France, farmers can obtain forecasts
that help them to practice ‘precision farming’ (Perar-
Mostagrometeorologicalresearchisdoneinanin-
naudandHamelin,1999).
terdisciplinarycontext.Resultscanbemadeavailable
Forecasts of the second type emanate usually from
tousersinallconcerneddisciplines.Agrometeorolog-
an interdisciplinary team, including a meteorologist,
ical services can take an active role in this dissimi-
an agronomist, a lifestock husbandry specialist, a
nation and in the promotion of the use of these re-
plant/animal health officer, a communications spe-
sults. Some examples are the results of studies of the
cialist, a representative of the research community
relationships of water shortage on crop performance,
andperhapsothers.
pestanddiseaseincidenceoncropsandanimals,rela-
The forecast product delivered to the clients may
tions between meteorology and the ‘performance’ of
consistofinformationforschedulingday-to-dayagri-
the(agro-)environment.
culturaloperations(Baradas,1982,1984,1985)often
afterconsiderationoftheongoingagriculturalseason,
inthelightofknownresultsofearlierresearch.Itcan
alsoservetoformulatealerts,warningsandalarmson 5. Howtoapproachtheclient
atechnical,socialoreconomiclevel.Plantprotection
services(e.g.fordesertlocustcontrol)andcropmon- 5.1. Introductoryremarks
itoringandyieldforecastteamsprovidefurtherexam-
plesofinterdisciplinarycooperationtouseforecasts. The approach to the client relies on the estab-
lishment of regular contacts, perhaps informally at
4.6. Remotely-senseddata firstandinstitutionalizedlater.Themeteorologistcan
‘search’ for a client by analyzing the agricultural en-
Among the meteorological products of remotely- vironment and production processes, having an eye
senseddataare: forthe‘market’forpossibleapplicationsandsuggest-
(cid:15) the assessments of components of the radiation ing existing products, or initializing the development
regime(withorwithoutreferencetotheunderlying ofnewconceptsofproducts.
surfaces); Theprocesscanstartwithadialogueontheclients’
(cid:15) the surface temperature and by deduction some work,discussingeachstepintheagriculturalproduc-
estimateoftheairtemperaturenearthesurface; tionprocessandtheeffectofweatherfactorsonthese
(cid:15) windandairmassmovement; steps. An assessment of the possibility that agrome-
(cid:15) estimatesofthetimeandarealextentoftheoccur- teorologicalinformationproductscanrealisticallyin-
renceofrainfall,drought,flooding,andoffrosts. crease the efficiency of the steps may also be made.
Such information is rarely provided as a finished Such a discussion can deal with the factors that de-
producttotheclients.Oftenitisusedtocomplement termine the highest possible rate of production, limit
the purely meteorological products, or delivered in productionorreduceproductionbelowlevelsalready
combination with other remotely-sensed products, established(seeSection3.3).Adiscussionofaspects
such as information on soil wetness, land or vege- or problems of their work related to meteorological
tation cover (NDVI), likely presence of pests and/or phenomena, could than lead to a joint definition of
diseases, estimates of the areal coverage of irrigated the agro-meteorological product that is needed. Such
orflood-retreatcrops,incidenceofbushfires,etc.By a dialogue requires that the agro-meteorologist has
the nature of their capacity to indicate the probable as great as possible a knowledge about the products
areal extent of a condition, and of the still very rapid that the service can offer or develop. The product
evolution of the parameters that can be measured may require the joint provision of input data, hence
or derived, remotely-sensed data and their derived a joint data collection programme, joint analysis of
D.Rijks,M.W.Baradas/AgriculturalandForestMeteorology103(2000)27–42 35
the data and joint formulation of the message in a When the principal user of meteorological infor-
user-adaptedlanguage. mation was the aviation pilot, the aspect of commu-
Beforeadecisionismadetofurnishaproducttothe nication was solved by face-to-face contact between
client,considerationshouldbegiventothepossibility persons familiar with each other’s job. That situation
that the client can effectively manage the use of the has changed. If the information requested is of a cli-
product.Thetechnologyshouldbeofrealisticservice matologicalnature,disseminationinwrittenformand
totheclient. accordingtoaformatspecifiedinconsultationwiththe
client is often appropriate. When real-time informa-
5.2. Suggestingthenatureoftheproductrequiredby tionisaskedforbyauserwhoseworkdetailsareonly
theclient superficially known to the meteorologist, such as in
agricultural practises or crop protection, a success-
Often, a combined use of climatological, observed ful solution may be found through the creation of
andforecastinputsissoughtbytheclient,andtherela- a formal or an informal interdisciplinary working
tivereliabilityofeachcomponentshouldbeidentified. group. As an example, in Mali (Diarra, 1999) and
There are several types of responses that one may Sierra Leone (Pratt, 1999), representatives of the
obtain,whentalkingtoaprospectiveclient: meteorological, agricultural research, agricultural ex-
(cid:15) The client has all information products needed. In tension and crop protection services hold weekly or
thiscaseonemaywishtousetheexperienceofthe bi-weekly meetings with representatives of agricul-
clienttodocumentoneselfontheestablishedbene- tural development and rural radio services to discuss
fits of the use of (agro)meteorological information thenatureandeventhewordingofadvicetofarmers.
and use the knowledge for a possible enlargement This advice is then brought to the farmers by rural
ofthepackageorextensiontootherclients; radio (WMO, 1992) and if necessary complemented
(cid:15) The client knows what information is needed, and bythelocalstaffoftheextensionservice.Somefarm-
mayormaynot,ormayonlyinpart,alreadyobtain ers that have demonstrated an understanding of the
it; one can study with the client whether one can relative reliability of the elements in the information
supplythe(additional)informationinamoretimely and their spatial variability, have agreed to partici-
ormoreefficientmanner; pateinanevaluationprogramme,providingfeedback
(cid:15) The client does not really, or only vaguely, know andelementsforimprovements.Thusinterdiciplinary
howmeteorologicalinformationcanhelphim;only collaborationfacilitatestheuseofinformationthat,if
by going, together, step by step, through the work notpresentedinauser-adaptedformat,mightwellgo
orproductionprocesscanoneidentifyareaswhere unused(Rijks,1989).
meteorologymightbeofuseandwherethebenefits Theinformationtobedisseminatedcanconsistof:
ofprovisionofinformationcouldbeexamined. (cid:15) monitoringstatements;
Onemaywishtoidentifywhethertheinterestofthe (cid:15) forecasts of developments relative to a certain
clientgoesinparticulartomattersofeconomy,social phenomenonoroperation;
values, security, sustainability, environment, leisure, (cid:15) elementsofriskassessment;
etc. If it is economy, is the emphasis on net return, (cid:15) information on the opportunity of agricultural
gross inputs etc? One may have to make a ‘user sen- managementorcontrolmeasures.
sitivityanalysis’andtoassess(andcommunicate)the Itcanbedisseminatedintheformof:
valuetotheclientoftheinformationproductsupplied. (cid:15) messagessentdirectlytoaclient(government,user
group,etc.);
5.3. Thecommunicationoftheproduct (cid:15) bulletins;
(cid:15) pressarticles;
If available, the dissemination of the product (cid:15) radiomessages;
should,ifatallpossible,useestablishedandaccepted (cid:15) TVpresentations;
channels, including the most modern ones such as (cid:15) telephonereplymessages;
telephone, fax, internet, file transfer protocol (ftp), (cid:15) interrogableexpertsystems;
andTV-videotext(Krueger,1999). (cid:15) e-mail;
36 D.Rijks,M.W.Baradas/AgriculturalandForestMeteorology103(2000)27–42
(cid:15) messagesdistributedbyagriculturalorotherexten- Feedback on the indirect benefits, that materialise
sionservices; in post-harvesting operations and agro-industrial pro-
(cid:15) messagesdistributedbycommodityservices; ceduresisalsoverysignificant.
(cid:15) posters(inschoolsorlocalcommunityhalls). Feedback can sometimes be expressed in the
The choice of the channel, and of the ‘language’ manner of a diagram of costs and benefits (Roux,
used, has an influence on the efficiency of the use of 1992), where the relative costs and benefits of the
theproduct.Incertaincases,theemphasismayhaveto (in-)congruence between information supplied and
belaidonthe‘consequences’oftheuseorthenon-use reality can be expressed and more or less precisely
of the product, rather than on the product itself. The quantified.AppendixBgivestheexampleofanappli-
monthly weather bulletin of Belize (National Mete- cationinpestanddiseasecontrol.PartAofAppendix
orological Service Belize, 1998) is an example of a B indicates a method of assessment of the success
communication that is consistently aiming to reach a or failure of the forecast issued, part B identifies for
greatspreadofusersinauser-adaptedmanner.InIn- eachcombinationofforecastandrealitytheoriginof
diaaspecialeffortismadetorenderadvisoriesattrac- costsandbenefits(Rijks,1992).
tiveandobtainfeedbackontheiruse(Shaka,1999). An example of an economic analysis of the use by
Prudence or caution is required when ‘launching’ farmersandhorticulturalistsintheNetherlandsofde-
a new information product. Testing should be done cisionsupportsystemsforcropprotectionorirrigation
in-housefirst,andnextincollaborationwiththeclient, managementhasbeengivenbyMolendijk(1999).
who must be aware of the test-aspect of the opera-
tion. A successful example of such a procedure was 6.2. Howwilltheproductbepaidfor
the pilot project in Mali (Direction Nationale de la
Météorologie,1998). While one clearly must not frighten a potential
client by matters of cost, one has to inform oneself,
unobtrusively, on the way the reward for the product
6. Assessingthevalueoftheproduct willmaterialize.Willtherebeapayment(oracontri-
bution to costs) to the meteorological service, either
6.1. Feedback by individual clients or through a collectivity (such
asacommodityagencyoraChamberofAgriculture)
Aproducthasvalueonlytotheextentthatitisbeing or a marketing agency? Will there be a well-defined,
usedtotheclients’satisfaction.Therefore,afeedback well-expressed, recognition of the contribution of the
on the benefits that are derived from the decisions product to the work of the client (such as a radio
based on such use, whether they be technical, social, service,anotherMinistry,agovernmentservice,ana-
economic, environmental or other, must be obtained tional disaster relief effort, an international agency),
regularly. that can justify the existence of a contribution on
Afeedbackmayconsiderwhetherthevalueresides the national budget? In some economic systems this
inminimizingdamage,riskorcosts,orinmaximizing question is openly accepted, in others it must still be
output,netreturnorinenhancingthevalueof,orthe treatedwithcare.
possibilitytoexploit,otherresources. Afewexamplesofeconomicbenefitsaregiven:
Examplesoftheformercanbefoundintheapplica- (cid:15) In the Sudan Gezira irrigation scheme, the
tions relative to the operations of the farming system traditional crop sowing sequence is ground-
(seeSection3),applicationsofthelatterintheaspects nut (June–July), dura (sorghum) (July), cotton
of planning the farming system and adapting it opti- (July–August), and finally wheat in November, to
mally to the inputs of another nature, that are avail- the extent that irrigation water remains available.
able. Quantified information on some of these exam- In the early 1960s, the total area under wheat was
ples is given by Rijks (1986, 1987). Munthali (1999) established somewhat arbitrarily, so that in some
provides a summary of agrometeorological products, yearstheamountofwaterwasinsufficienttoprop-
requestedbyusersinMalawi,onwhichfeedbackcan erly irrigate all wheat fields, while in other years
bereceived. unusedwaterfloweddowntheriver.Morerecently,