The Chinese Economy: Recent Trends and Policy Issues PDF
Preview The Chinese Economy: Recent Trends and Policy Issues
The Chinese Economy . Giorgio Gomel (cid:129) Daniela Marconi (cid:129) Ignazio Musu Beniamino Quintieri Editors The Chinese Economy Recent Trends and Policy Issues Editors GiorgioGomel Prof.IgnazioMusu DanielaMarconi DepartmentofEconomics Intl.EconomicAnalysisandRelationsDept. Ca’FoscariUniversityofVenice BankofItaly Venice Rome Italy Italy Prof.BeniaminoQuintieri DepartmentofEconomics TorVergataUniversityofRome Rome Italy ISBN978-3-642-28637-7 ISBN978-3-642-28638-4(eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-642-28638-4 SpringerHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2012943043 #Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2013 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionor informationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped.Exemptedfromthislegalreservationarebriefexcerpts inconnectionwithreviewsorscholarlyanalysisormaterialsuppliedspecificallyforthepurposeofbeing enteredandexecutedonacomputersystem,forexclusiveusebythepurchaserofthework.Duplication ofthispublicationorpartsthereofispermittedonlyundertheprovisionsoftheCopyrightLawofthe Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer.PermissionsforusemaybeobtainedthroughRightsLinkattheCopyrightClearanceCenter. ViolationsareliabletoprosecutionundertherespectiveCopyrightLaw. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication,neithertheauthorsnortheeditorsnorthepublishercanacceptanylegalresponsibilityfor anyerrorsoromissionsthatmaybemade.Thepublishermakesnowarranty,expressorimplied,with respecttothematerialcontainedherein. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Acknowledgements This book is the result of a research project undertaken by the Bank of Italy in collaborationwiththeManlioMasiFoundation,theUniversityofVeniceandother Italian institutions and universities. A workshop on the “Chinese Economy” was heldattheVeniceInternationalUniversityinNovember2010,fromwhichsomeof thecontributionsincludedinthisvolumewereselected. We would like to thank Ignazio Visco, Governor of the Bank of Italy, and Salvatore Rossi, Deputy Director General of the Bank, for supporting this project sincetheverybeginning.Wewishtothankallthecolleaguesthathelpedorganize the workshop, and in particular Elisa Carlotto for her outstanding assistance in VeniceandDianaCrupi,attheManlioMasiFoundation,forhavingprovidedgreat helpinmanyorganizationaltasks.Wealsowishtoacknowledgeandthankallthose whocontributedwiththeirideasandsuggestionstothisproject.Weareindebtedto CarlaLucidi,oftheBankofItaly,aswellasAliceChambers,DanielDichter,Roger Meservey,JenniferParkinsonandChristineStone,fortheircarefulrevisionofthe English texts. Carmela Sorrenti and Lorenzo Poletto, both at the Bank of Italy, providedexcellentassistance. v . Contents 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 GiorgioGomel,DanielaMarconi,IgnazioMusu, andBeniaminoQuintieri Part1 StatisticalIssues 2 ForecastingWorldOutput:TheRisingImportance ofEmergingAsia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 AlessandroBorin,RiccardoCristadoro,RobertoGolinelli, andGiuseppeParigi 3 MacroeconomicDevelopmentsinChina:TheStatistical Challenges. . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. 35 MarcoMariniandFrancescoZollino 4 TechnicalEfficiencyandGovernance:TheCaseofChina. . . . . . . 55 GiovanniFerri,Li-GangLiu,andCamillaMastromarco Part2 DemographicChanges,UrbanizationandHouseholdSavings 5 DemographicTrendsandSustainabilityoftheOld-AgeSecurity SysteminChina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 EnricaDiStefano 6 UrbanandRuralHouseholdSavingsinChina:Determinants andPolicyImplications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 RiccardoCristadoroandDanielaMarconi 7 SavingRatesofUrbanHouseholdsinChina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 AgarBrugiavini,GuglielmoWeber,andBinzhenWu vii viii Contents Part3 ChinaandWorldTrade:ChallengesandOpportunities 8 The“ChinaEffect”onEUExportstoOECDMarkets: AFocusonItaly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 GiorgiaGiovannetti,MarcoSanfilippo,andMargheritaVelucchi 9 TheSophisticationofChina’sExports,ImportsandIntermediate Products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 EnricoMarvasi 10 EnvironmentalGoodsTradeandTechnologyinChina. . . . . . . . . 211 GiovanniForestiandStefaniaTrenti 11 TrendsinPrivateConsumptioninChina:TheEmergence oftheChineseHigh-IncomeClassandItsGlobalRelevance. . . . . 235 AlessandroGambiniandManuelaMarianera 12 AreFirmsExportingtoChinaandIndiaDifferentfromOther Exporters?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255 GiorgioBarbaNavaretti,MatteoBugamelli,RiccardoCristadoro, andDanielaMaggioni Authors and Affiliations Alessandro Borin International Economic Analysis and Relations Department, BankofItaly,Rome,Italy AgarBrugiavini Ca’Foscari,UniversityofVenice,Venice,Italy Matteo Bugamelli Structural Economic Analysis Department, Bank of Italy, Rome,Italy Riccardo Cristadoro International Economic Analysis and Relations Depart- ment,BankofItaly,Rome,Italy GiovanniFerri DepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofBari,Bari,Italy GiovanniForesti ResearchDepartment,IntesaSanpaolo,Milan,Italy AlessandroGambini ResearchDepartment,Confindustria,Rome,Italy Giorgia Giovannetti University of Florence and European University Institute, Florence,Italy Roberto Golinelli Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy Li-Gang Liu Head of China Economic Research, ANZ Banking Group, Hong Kong,China DanielaMaggioni CentroStudiLucad’AglianoandUniversita` Politecnicadelle Marche,Ancona,Italy Daniela Marconi International Economic Analysis and Relations Department, BankofItaly,Rome,Italy ManuelaMarianera ResearchDepartmentConfindustria,Rome,Italy MarcoMarini DepartmentofNationalAccounts,Istat,Rome,Italy EnricoMarvasi NationalObservatoryforInternationalisationandTrade,Manlio MasiFoundation,Rome,ItalyandTorVergataUniversityofRome,Rome,Italy ix
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