The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative: Concept, Context and Assessment PDF
Preview The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative: Concept, Context and Assessment
Contemporary South Asian Studies Siegfried O. Wolf The China- Pakistan Economic Corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative Concept, Context and Assessment Contemporary South Asian Studies Editor-in-Chief PauloCasaca Brussels,Belgium This book series features scientific and scholarly studies focusing on politics, economics and changing societies in South Asia. Utilizing recent theoretical and empirical advances, this seriesaims atproviding a critical and in-depth analysisof contemporaryaffairsandfuturedevelopmentsandchallengesintheregion.Relevant topics include, but are not limited to, democratization processes, human rights concerns,securityissues,terrorism,EU-SouthAsiarelations,regionalandeconomic cooperationandquestionsrelatedtotheuseofnaturalresources. Contemporary South Asian Studies (CSAS) welcomes monographs and edited volumes from a variety of disciplines and approaches, such as political and social sciences,economicsandculturalstudies,whichareaccessibletobothacademicsand interested general readers. The series is published on behalf of the South Asian DemocraticForum (Brussels), whichis one ofthe most well-known think tanks in EuropefocusingonSouthAsia. Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/15344 Siegfried O. Wolf The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative Concept, Context and Assessment SiegfriedO.Wolf SouthAsiaDemocraticForum(SADF) Brussels,Belgium ISSN2509-4173 ISSN2509-4181 (electronic) ContemporarySouthAsianStudies ISBN978-3-030-16197-2 ISBN978-3-030-16198-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-16198-9 ©SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2020 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionor informationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthors,andtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthisbook arebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsorthe editorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforanyerrors oromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregardtojurisdictionalclaims inpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG. Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Preface and Acknowledgement The establishment of Economic Corridors (EC/ECs) as an instrument to promote economicgrowthandsustainabledevelopmentgainedglobalprominenceinrecent years. The main reason for this was the launch of the so-called Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), earlier known as the ‘One Belt, One Road’ project or ‘New Silk Road’, a large-scale campaign launched by the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Government so as to promote multidimensional connectivity between Asia and Europe as well as other world regions, particularly the Middle East and Africa. Beinganinitiativeofintra-aswellasinter-continentalsize,theBRIcoversnumer- ousmeasures—fromindividualinfrastructureprojectstotransnational,regionalECs comprised of vast, multi-sectoral development schemes. The most prominent of these endeavours is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Considering the multi-billion investments attached to the CPEC and their deep impacts on all spheres of state and society, it does not come as a surprise that this corridor is not onlycatchingtheattentionofbothnationalandinternationalmediabutalsoinvolv- ingcomplexsocietalaswellasacademicdebates. Much has been written about the CPEC. However, there seemed to lack a comprehensive and in-depth study focusing not on any particular aspect of the endeavour but on an overall vision of the CPEC project as a whole. One of the major obstacles involved in achieving this goal concerns the apparent lack of conceptual works regarding ECs. This book thus suggests and develops a new conceptual framework for an analysis of ECs. The analytical approach taken here regarding the development of ECs goes far beyond the usual quantitative methods usually applied by scholars. Most existing works were conducted by experts from both regional and spatial sciences guided by specific, compartmentalized research goalsandinterests.Thisstudyaimstobridgethegapbetweenthevaluableground- work undertaken by those scholars and the conceptual requirements of a social science perspective. Based on acquired notions regarding how to plan and imple- mentanEC,IemphasizeinmyconceptofEconomicCorridorstheneedtoaddress thesocialandpoliticaldimensionsoflarge-scaledevelopmentinitiatives,especially in countries featured by instability and flawed democratic processes. Furthermore, v vi PrefaceandAcknowledgement concepts regarding ECs used in these pages are strongly related to the notions of maximum local ownership and incorporation of regional stakeholders. In this con- text,itispointedoutthatanykindofsocialandeconomicdevelopmentmustbein line with liberal democratic norms and values, particularly with regard to human rights.Assuch,thedevelopmentofanECneedstoconsiderthestrengtheningofthe existingruled-basedinternationalorderinsteadofcontributingtothedilutionofits application. The above-mentioned aspects are perceived as essential conditions for each EC projectandshouldbereflectedinanyconceptualframeworkregardingECs.Other- wise, it will be argued here: no EC initiative will be sustainable. Instead, it could even lead to the deterioration of social and economic conditions among the partic- ipating countries’ citizenry. It goes without saying that this would also be accom- panied by severe political implications in the region. The fact that we witness increasing(innumberandintensity)socialandpoliticalprotestsagainstECprojects, especiallyinthosestateswhicharepartoftheBRI,isobviouslyrisingawarenessand concerns among observers. Critical reports multiply. Nevertheless, most of these reportslack‘overarchingsubstance’—theirexplanatorypowerislimitedbyafocus on a single aspect of a given EC project (such as infrastructure, energy and environment). Sometimes, on the contrary, they are too broad and ultimately vague in their use of underlying studies and provision of data and analysis. In consequence,suchreportsoftenfailtoofferacoherentperspectiveonthedifferent causalities involved in the implementation of EC projects and the vast range of subsequenteffectsonstateandsociety. Moreover, these very specific (mostly single-issue/case) studies do notconsider the mutually reinforcing dynamics and correlations at work between individual causes and consequences. As such, these analyses often ignore, in some cases even downplay, the entire scope and complexity of both existing and potential challenges. Furthermore, they often fail to capture the reinforcing effects between different causalities related to EC initiatives and the subsequent downward spiral involvingsocial,economicandpoliticaldynamics. ThisworknotonlyoffersanewconceptofECsbutalsoattemptstoanalysethe CPEC initiative in its full complexity—as far as is possible at this stage of implementation. ThisbookoriginatedfromseveralvisitsmadetoPakistan,oneofwhichcoincided withthelaunchoftheCPECproject—whichwassincethendominatingmyresearch interests. The first humble results of these initial works found their way into numerous comments and other opinion pieces, journal articles, and book chapters. Someofthemservehereasfurtherreferences. However, this work would not be possible without the support from many institutionsandindividualswhohelpedmemakethisworkpossible. First of all, I am indebted to the South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF) for financial and administrative support. Bearing this in mind, I want to express my deepestgratitudetoPauloCasaca,founderanddirectorofSADF,whoencouraged metocarryoutthisprojectandprovidedmewiththeopportunitytodothein-depth studieswhichweretobecomethisbook. PrefaceandAcknowledgement vii Iamparticularly gratefultoMadalenaCasacawho interactedwith mepainstak- ingly and rigorously throughout the whole editorial process and gave me much valuable advice regarding improvements. I would like to thank Nora Babalova, Stephan Lampe, Sarah de Guest, Laura Berlingozzi, Tim Gensheimer and Albino Brásforeditorialassistanceandtechnicalsupportintheirvariouscapacities. Moreover,Iwouldliketoextendmygratitudetothosepoliticaldecision-makers, academics and practitioners who organized conferences, briefings and seminars as wellaslectureswhichgavemetheopportunitynotonlytogainfirsthandinformation andexchange viewsonthesubjectbutalso usetheircomments andcriticismsasa litmustestformyrationale.Theyaretoonumeroustocount;however,someofthem I would like to mention—namely Mr Geoffrey van Orden (MEP); Fulvio Martusciello(MEP);ProfessorJakubZajaczkowski(PhD),DirectoroftheInstitute ofInternationalRelations,UniversityofWarsaw;KrzysztofIwanek(PhD),Chairof the Asia Research Centre at the National Defence University, Warsaw; Professor Rahul Mukherji (now Heidelberg University) and Dr. Amitendu Palit from the InstituteforSouthAsianStudies,NationalUniversityofSingapore;andmyformer colleagues from the South Asia Institute, Heidelberg University, of which I am an affiliatemember. ItisamatterofparticularinterestformetoexpressmyspecialthankstoDr.Jörg MittelstenScheid,aGermanentrepreneurandphilanthropist,whofundedtwoofmy earlier fieldworks in Pakistan. Without his generous and well-meaning support, I wouldnotbeabletorealizemyinitialworkonPakistan,especiallynotontheCPEC duringtheyearsthatfollowed. IamfortunatetohavefoundahomeforthismanuscriptwithSpringerGermany (Heidelberg).Here,IwanttothankinparticularmyeditorJohannesGlaeserandhis team. Without their most valuable advice, and persistent support during the whole publishingprocess,thisbookwouldnothavebeencompleted. Last but not least, I am enormously grateful to my family and friends, and especially to my mother and Rachel. They have been patient with me, excusing thecountlesshoursofhidingmebehindthedeskaswellasthenumerousabsences due to conference participations and field trips. In so many ways, this project has beenrealizedwiththeiremotionalsupportandencouragement. Ihopethatthisbookwillbeanimportantreferenceforpolicy-makers,academics andotherstakeholderscommittedtosustainableeconomicgrowththroughregional cooperation and respect for democracy, peace and stability in South Asia and beyond. Brussels SiegfriedO.Wolf March2019 Contents 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 TheConceptualFrameworkRegardingEconomicCorridors. . . . . 21 3 ChineseMotivations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 4 PakistaniMotivations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 5 ChallengesTowardstheImplementationandFunctioning oftheCPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 6 Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 7 TheGSP+ConundrumandtheCPEC’sImpactonEU-Pakistan EconomicandTradeRelations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243 8 AfghanistanWithintheBRIVisionandtheFeasibility ofEnlargingtheCPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261 9 DevelopmentVersusDemocracy?TheCPECandCivil-Military RelationsinPakistan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281 10 FinalThoughts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307 Bibliography. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . 329 Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381 ix About the Author Siegfried O. Wolf is Director of Research at the South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF),aBrussels-basedthinktank,andSeniorResearcher(member)attheSouth Asia Institute, Heidelberg University. He completed his degrees in Master of Arts (2003) in South Asian political science and Doctor of Philosophy (2009) from Heidelberg University. Additionally he is an affiliated researcher at the Pakistan Security Research Unit (PSRU, Durham University, UK) and a former research fellowattheInstituteofPoliticalScience(IPW,HeidelbergUniversity)andCentre deSciencesHumaines(CSH,NewDelhi,India)aswellasaformervisitingfellowat the National University of Science and Technology (NUST, Islamabad, Pakistan). He was member of the external expert group of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Task Force, German Federal Foreign Office, and worked as a consultant for the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), Germany. He has been quoted regularly in Al Arabiya English, Business Standard, China Global Television Network, The Daily Star (Bangladesh), Deutsche Welle, The Economic Times, The New York Times,TheStraitsTimes, Ouest-Franceand The Wall Street Journal.DrWolfistheco-authorofAPoliticalandEconomicDictionaryofSouth Asia (Routledge; London 2006) and co-editor of Politics in South Asia. Culture, Rationality and Conceptual Flow (Springer: Heidelberg, 2015), The Merits of Regionalisation: The Case of South Asia (Springer: Heidelberg, 2014) and State and Foreign Policy in South Asia (Samskriti: New Delhi, 2010). Furthermore, he co-editedin2017thebooktitledTerrorismRevisited:Islamism,Political Violence and State-Sponsorship (Contemporary South Asian Studies Series, Springer: Hei- delberg)withPauloCasaca,formerMemberoftheEuropeanParliament(MEP)and directoroftheSouthAsiaDemocraticForum(SADF). xi
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