The China-India Nuclear Crossroads : China, India, and the New Paradigm

232 Pages·2012·1.66 MB·English

by  Lora Saalman

GLOBAL POWER IS SHIFTING TO ASIA. The U.S. military is embarking on an American
“pivot” to the Indo-Pacific region, and the bulk of global arms spending is
directed toward Asian theaters. India and Pakistan are thought to be building
S
up their nuclear arsenals while questions persist about China’s potential to A
A
“sprint to parity.” China remains by far the world’s largest market for new
L
nuclear energy production, and India aspires to be on a similar trajectory. M
A
N
Despite these trends, The China-India Nuclear Crossroads is the first serious
book by leading Chinese and Indian experts to examine the political, military,
and technical factors that affect Sino-Indian nuclear relations. In this book,
editor and translator Lora Saalman presents a comprehensive framework
THE
through which China and India can pursue enhanced cooperation and
minimize the unintended consequences of their security dilemmas.
“The place to start for anyone interested in the atomic dimension of the
China-India relationship and its profound impact on Asian security and the
global nuclear order.”
—C. Raja Mohan, Member of India’s National Security Advisory Board and Distinguished NUCLEAR
Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation
CROSSROADS
“A first and crucial attempt to comprehensively compare Chinese and Indian
nuclear perspectives.”
T
H
—Shen Dingli, Executive Dean of the Institute of International Studies and Director of the E
Center for American Studies at Fudan University C
H
I
“Provides a better understanding of the security perceptions driving China N
A
and India’s nuclear strategies ... a must read.”
-
I
—Shyam Saran, Senior Fellow at the Center for Policy Research and former counselor N
in the Embassy of India in Beijing, China D
I
A
“Serves as a communication bridge between Chinese and Indian scholars.” N
U
—Zheng Ruixiang, Senior Researcher at the China Institute of International Studies CL
and China’s former consul general in Mumbai, India EA
R

C
R
O
S
S EDITOR &
R TRANSLATOR
O
A
D
S
LORA SAALMAN
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE

© 2012 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form
or by any means without written permission from the Carnegie Endowment.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
202-483-7600, Fax [phone]
www.ceip.org

The Carnegie Endowment does not take institutional positions on public
policy issues; the views represented here are the authors’ own and do not
necessarily reflect the views of the Endowment, its staff, or its trustees.

To order, contact:
Hopkins Fulfillment Service
P.O. Box 50370, Baltimore, MD 21211-4370
1-800-537-5487 or 1-410-516-6956
Fax [phone]

Cover design by Jocelyn Soly
Composition by Beth Schlenoff
Printed by United Book Press
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

The China-India Nuclear Crossroads / Lora Saalman, editor.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-87003-270-7 (cloth)—ISBN 978-0-87003-269-1 (pbk.)
1. China—Foreign relations—India. 2. India—Foreign relations—China.
3. Nuclear weapons—Government policy—China. 4. Nuclear weapons—
Government policy—India. I. Saalman, Lora.

JZ1734.A57I4 2012
327.54051—dc23

2012019679
CONTENTS
acknowledgments vii
FoRewoRd ix
IntRodUctIon 1
cHaPteR 1
Bridging Historical Nuclear Gaps 15
aRUn PRakasH | Yang YI
cHaPteR 2
Thinking Beyond Nuclear Doctrine and Strategy 25
Pan ZHenqIang | P. k. sIngH
cHaPteR 3
Comparing Nuclear Pledges and Practice 35
c. UdaY BHaskaR | nIe HongYI

cHaPteR 4
Revisiting No First Use and Minimum Deterrence 47
lI BIn | sRIkantH kondaP allI
cHaPteR 5
Linking Strategic Stability and Ballistic Missile Defense 65
RajeswaRI PIllaI RajagoP alan | Yao YUnZHU
cHaPteR 6
Recalibrating Deterrence Theory and Practice 77
lI desHUn | kal Yan kemBURI
cHaPteR 7
Parsing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty 95
swaRan sIngH | Fan jIsHe
cHaPteR 8
Verifying Fissile Material Futures 107
ZoU YUnHUa | m. s. PRatHIBHa
cHaPteR 9
Shoring Up the Nonproliferation Regime 121
RajesH RajagoPalan | lI Hong
cHaPteR 10
Sizing Up the Nuclear Suppliers Group 137
lIU sIweI | RajesH RajagoP alan
cHaPteR 11
Converging Nuclear Energy Programs 151
V. s. aRUnacHalam, meeRa sUdHakaR, s. RajgoP al,
and dIPak sUndaRam | gU ZHongmao and ZHoU ZHIweI
cHaPteR 12
Building Mutual Confidence 161
cHeng RUIsHeng, ZHang lI, and
ma jIalI | dIPankaR BaneRjee, RUkmanI gUPta,
aVInasH godBole, and gUnjan sIngH
conclUsIon 171
aPPendIx 191
Index 197
contRIBUtoRs 215
caRnegIe-tsIngHUa centeR FoR gloBal PolIcY 219
ACkNOwLEDGMENTS
The editor wishes to express her gratitude to all of the participants at
the event “China and India’s Nuclear Doctrine and Dynamics” and
to the contributors to the book The China-India Nuclear Crossroads.
She would also like to offer her sincere thanks to George Perkovich,
vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, for his editorial comments, to Paul Haenle, director of the Carne-
gie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, and to the Stanton Foundation for
its support of this project.
The editor would also like to thank the Carnegie-Tsinghua staff, in
particular support staff member Liu Hailuan and intern Jason Fortin,
for their work on the event and final transcript, as well as program coor-
dinator Yan Yan, communications coordinator Gao Xin, and all of the
Carnegie-Tsinghua global interns for their efforts.
Finally, the editor would like to thank Carnegie’s communications
team, in particular senior publications manager Ilonka Oszvald and de-
signer and marketing manager Jocelyn Anderson Soly, for their significant
contributions. And, as always, the editor wishes to express her heartfelt
gratitude to Thomas Ofner for his infinite patience and support through-
out the entire process.
vii

FOREwORD
The China-India Nuclear Crossroads fills a paradoxical void in the
literature on Chinese-Indian nuclear relations.
Global power is shifting to Asia. The U.S. Defense Department is
leading an American “pivot” to the Indo-Pacific region. Asian “theaters”
attract the bulk of global arms spending. India and China have unresolved
border disputes, and New Delhi’s strategists increasingly express an impera-
tive to balance China’s “hard power.” Questions remain over China’s poten-
tial “sprint to parity,” while India and Pakistan are thought to be building
up their nuclear arsenals. The only two countries in the world that are
producing new fissile material for weapons are India and Pakistan. China is
by far the world’s largest “market” for new nuclear energy production, and
India aspires to be on a similar trajectory.
Yet, despite these trends, The China-India Nuclear Crossroads is the
first serious book by leading Chinese and Indian experts to examine the
premises, perceptions, objectives, and technological underpinnings of the
two countries’ nuclear relations.
The Carnegie Endowment typically resists publishing edited volumes.
Such works often have an uneven quality and chapters that simply rehash
authors’ well-established views. The importance of this book’s topics and
the absence of existing literature on them are not sufficient reasons in
and of themselves to overcome that resistance. Thus, when Lora Saalman
began recruiting outstanding Indian and Chinese experts for this project,
ix